German Elections & Politics

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Saxony state election 31 August 2014

CDU 43%
Left 18%
SPD 16%
AfD 6%
Greens 6%
-----
NPD 4%
FDP 4%
Others 3%

Saxony European elections

CDU 41%
SPD 18%
Left 17%
AfD 8%
Greens 7%
FDP 2%
Others 7%

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Are you satisfied with:



Are you satisfied with the government? very satisfied, satisfied, less satisfied, not at all





Your personal taxation: to high, appropriate, to low, do not pay taxes

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Berlin state election

Forsa

CDU 30%
SPD 23%
Greens 16%
Left 15%
AfD 5%
Pirates 5%
----
Others 6%

Berlin federal election

Forsa

CDU 31%
SPD 22%
Left 19%
Greens 13%
AfD 5%
---
Pirates 3%
FDP 3%
Others 4%


---------------

Emnid

CDU/CSU 40%
SPD 25%
Greens 10%
Left 10%
AfD 5%
---
FDP 4%
Others 6%

--------

INSA

CDU/CSU 41%
SPD 25%
Greens 11%
Left 9%
AfD 5%
---
FDP 3%
Pirates 2%
Others 4%

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state elections

infratest dimap

CDU 34%
SPD 29%
Left 20%
Greens 5%
-------
AfD 4%
NPD 3%
FDP 2%
Others 3%

Nordrhein-Westfalen state elections

infratest dimap

SPD 37%
CDU 36%
Greens 10%
FDP 5%
Left 5%
-------
AfD 3%
Pirates 2%
Others 2%

Rheinland-Pfalz state elections

infratest dimap

CDU 41%
SPD 31%
Greens 11%
--------
AfD 4%
Linke 4%
FDP 3%
Others 6%

Hamburg state elections

mafo

SPD 38,5%
CDU 22,6%
Greens 13,7%
Left 7,8%
AfD 5,8%
-------------
FDP 2,9%
Others 8,7%

Most important is the poll for state elections in Hamburg, because they are the next ones after Saxony, Brandenburg and Thuringia.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

In its heartland Baden-Württemberg, which is a liberal stronghold for some 200 years, the FDP melts at 3% and AfD took all of FDPs right-wing. Of course, battle is not over yet, but its AfD momentum. It will be very interesting to compare the european results on german state level.

Baden-Württemberg state elections

infratest dimap for SWR

CDU 41%
Greens 21%
SPD 20%
AfD 6%
----------
FDP 3%
Others 9 %



Germany federal elections

GMS

CDU 41%
SPD 25%%
Greens 11%
Left 9%
AfD 5%
----------
FDP 4%
Others 5%


INSA

CDU 40.0%
SPD 23,5%%
Greens 11,0%
Left 10,0%
AfD 5,5%
----------
FDP 4,0%
Others 6%

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Thuringia state level

CDU 36%
Left 28%
SPD 19%
Greens 5%
---------
AfD 4%
NPD 3%
FDP 2%
Others 3%

Heavy internal conflicts in the thuringian AfD. They will need boost by successes in Europe and Saxony. Thuringian FDP is dead. The Greens are in danger to fall below the thershold, but should in the end pass. As there is now a clear option for a Left/SPD coalition, it will probably help AfD gaining tactical voters to prevent "red-red". The CDU should be interested in having both, Greens and AfD into parliament, as to still be in government after the elections.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Forsa

CDU 40%
SPD 24%%
Greens 10%
Left 10%
AfD 6%
----------
FDP 4%
Others 6%

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Allensbach

CDU 39,5%
SPD 26,0%%
Greens 10,5%
Left 8,0%
AfD 5,5%
FDP 5,0%
--------------
Others 5,5%

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Saarland state elections

infratest

CDU 37%
SPD 34%
Left 13%
AfD 5%
Greens 5%
--------------
Pirates 2%
Others 4%*

*Which means FDP among "Others" now.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Why is Die Linke so strong in Saarland? Also why is the SPD so strong there compared to the rest of southwestern Germany? Is it really industrial?

"The Left " is a merger of the former communist SED (the party of the GDR regime), which later changed its name to PDS and the WASG. The PDS never had a chance in West Germany. This changed after the then Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) undertook the necessary welfare state reforms. Some SPD-lefties, trade unionists and far leftists formed a new party: the WASG. Even this was not particularly successful until they made Oskar Lafontaine (former SPD chairman and Schröder-hostile, former Finance Minister and FORMER PRIME MINISTER OF SAARLAND) as its chairman and united with PDS to "The Left". That's why the "The Left" in Saarland is relatively strong. However, in the Saarland decrease the numbers for " The Left". The PDS had 0.8% in 1999 and 2.3% in 2004 . The new "The Left" in 2009 gained 21.3% and 16.1% in 2012 . Now the polls say 13%, and with the anticipated resignation of Lafontaine it will be below 10%.
Actually, the Catholic Saarland is a CDU stronghold. CDU ruled until 1980 and since 1999. The strength of the SPD is because of the industrial workers, the structural change and was the person Lafontaine. It is expected that SPD will try to work with "The Left" after Lafontaines resignation, if the parties together will gain a majority. The Greens are quite weak here but could maybe help such a coalition. CDU is relatively far to the left and the FDP barely existent, which means space  for AfD.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

infratest dimap

39% CDU/CSU
26% SPD
11% Greens
9% Left
6% AfD
-----------
4% FDP
5% Others

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Emnid

CDU/CSU 39%
SPD 25%
Greens 10%
Left 10%
AfD 6%
FDP 5%
---------------
Others 5%

[Enno von Loewenstern]

facebook likes

AfD 109.556
(CDU/CSU) 100.797
Pirates 89.459
Left 79.881
CDU 78.850
SPD 71.248
Greens 50.284
FDP 28.020
CSU 21.947

[Enno von Loewenstern]

FW are polling surprisingly weak in Bavaria. In the latest bavarian poll for the EP election they're only at 3%, which makes it almost impossible to win two seats.

I have already posted it in the EP thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=170930.msg4163377#msg4163377

Regarding the FW, it is not that surprising. The higher the administrative level of the election, the lower their conferral by the voters and thus lower their election results. The Free Voters lack the unique selling point. Why should one vote FW in the EU elections? I guess they get 4-5% in Bavaria and 1.5 in Germany.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Forsa

CDU/CSU 40 %
SPD 24 %
Greens 10 %
Left 10 %
AfD 6 %
----------------
FDP 4%
Others 6 %

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Emnid

CDU/CSU 39%
SPD 24 %
Greens 10 %
Left 10 %
AfD 6 %
FDP 5%
----------------
Others 6%