MO-Remington Research: Blunt+10

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#BluntmorevulnerablethanToomey

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Yeah, Blunt isn't going to lose. Democrats really shouldn't spend any money on this race, 100% of what they can spend in MO should go to the governor's race.

#BluntmorevulnerablethanToomey

Eh, Blunt's basically winning all the Todd Akin voters right now. Nothing surprising here. Also don't know how this proves that Blunt's less vulnerable than Toomey, not to mention that polls one year before the election don't tell us much at all. I'd still be more shocked if Katie McGinty (lol) wins than if Kander (who might be the best Democratic recruit next year) wins. People here forget that Missouri just elected a liberal Senator with 55% of the vote and by a margin of 16 POINTS.

That's why people who see polls showing Toomey ahead by slightly more than Blunt shouldn't assume that he's less vulnerable. Missouri re-elected Claire McCaskill so handily because her opponent was Todd Akin. Blunt is relatively inoffensive, and he'll get an enormous boost from the Republican ticket, while Toomey will, if anything, likely face at least minor head winds.

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I'm not suggesting that Democrats should give up on this race. They should simply be aware that Blunt will probably win unless it's a wave year, or he makes a big blunder of some kind. If 2016 starts looking like a neutral or Republican-leaning year, Democrats shouldn't invest too much in this race, and should focus on easier pick-up opportunities.