Washington state megathread

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Asking our Washington posters: do we have any updates on how things look in WA-08, because that was very close in the primary, which is often predictive of generals in Washington?

Schrier will probably be fine. I think the primary results were a bit more favorable for the Republicans because there were more competitive primaries for them.

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I was in Tacoma the other day, and it's pretty shocking just how much more enthusiasm there is this year. I lived there from 2014-2016 (I moved back to Seattle just before the election), and I hardly saw any yard signs there. I predicted that the area would swing somewhat to Trump. This year, however, there are yard signs all over the place, almost all of them for Biden and Democrats. The difference is absolutely insane, and while it might not translate to a huge swing, as someone who lived there, it's hard not to see this as somewhat indicative of a change. There were a few Wyman signs, but significantly more Tarleton signs. Wyman doesn't need to win Tacoma proper to win statewide, but she probably can't afford to lose Pierce, and winning Pierce means at least keeping it somewhat close in Tacoma.

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Of course Culp isn't conceding, lol. As I expected, Wyman held on, and Davidson got ousted. If Republicans were smart, they'd push Wyman to run for Governor in 2024 if Inslee retires, but given the fact that Culp won the primary, I'm not sure they're headed down that path.

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So if Inslee takes off for a role in the Biden administration how does the special election for Governor work?

Is there a primary or is there just one big free-for-all ballot?

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think there is a special election. I think Denny Heck would just become governor serve out the rest of Inslee's term.

It’s my understanding that Heck would temporarily serve as Governor, but that there would be a special election next November. I could be wrong, though.

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Wyman considering leaving the Republican Party.

I doubt that she actually goes through with this, but if she does, there would pretty much go any hope of the GOP winning the gubernatorial race in 2024, or probably any statewide race, for that matter.

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Unless Newhouse somehow gets 3rd place in the top two primary, I don’t see Culp beating him.

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Tacoma has improved over the past few years, and the northern part, especially near Old Town, is quite nice. It's a very different city once you travel south of 6th Ave, but 6th Ave itself has some good restaurants. Just beware of traffic if you try to head north. Bellingham is cool, but it's quite a drive from Seattle, so that's one thing to keep in mind. If you want a suburban sort of place that's less crowded than Seattle but not too far away, Edmonds and Lake Forest Park are nice as well, and quite scenic. I personally wouldn't recommend living in Olympia, since it often has a lot of traffic and not nearly as much to offer as Tacoma, but if you don't mind a bit of traffic, it's not necessarily a bad choice.

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/snip

Anecdotally speaking, I'm looking at moving to anywhere in the Greater Seattle metro, with an emphasis on Olympia & Tacoma. I'm sure my list is very similar to other transplants.

Nice! Most California people I know looking to move are also looking at Seattle or the Seattle burbs I'm looking to go there too after I finish college which won't be for about another couple years or so unless I get into a school in Washington and am up for paying out of state tuition. But when I move I'm looking at Skagit and Whatcom Counties because I have deep family ties to that region I normally go up there once a year since I was a baby I used to go lobster fishing with my grandpa I love it there and the cities of Anacortes and Bellingham are really nice I'm not really a huge fan of the big city aesthetic so I'm probably gonna stay out of the Seattle metro but I also like how Skagit and Whatcom are positioned close enough to Vancouver Seattle and a couple of other big cities so its not far from a lot of em.

Having lived in SoCal all my life, I'm tired of the hustle-and-bustle and suburban jungle aesthetic. However, I'd still like to be near a big metro. Bellingham looks and sounds really interesting, but Olympia has the benefit (Or drawback to some folks) of being within 2 hours of Portland. No matter where/if I end up in Washington, I think it'll be a breath of fresh air (Figuratively & literally).

This is all talk though. I've never been to the PNW, though I'll be traveling up there for 2 weeks in August. I'll try and hit up Bellingham, but it may be a little too far out from my plans. It's also just as likely that I'll end up moving to Sacramento in leiu of Washington or Oregon. Either way, I don't see myself in SoCal 5 years from now.

Nice! Hope you have a fun trip!  WA is a really beautiful state also once you get out of Seattle the lack of traffic is going to feel amazing lol compared to Socal that's another reason I really wanna live their in Downtown Seattle the traffic is a little LA esique but the rest of the state has very clear roads. The Air Qaulity is also a lot cleaner than in Los Angeles. Let us know how your trip goes in August!

Given the mass hysteria that seems to have fermented in this thread, I take it now isn't a good time for my trip report where I have positive things to say about Seattle & the state of Washington?

 
I think saying positive things about Seattle will be a welcome break from the hysteria lmao

It’s kind of funny. Back when I was in middle/high school, Seattle was largely unknown to a large portion of the population, or people would immediately bring up the movie “Sleepless in Seattle.” Then, from 2010 to 2015, everyone was raving about how Seattle was the best place ever and wanted to move there. Since 2015, though, people have been pretty much constantly s****ing on it, about how it’s the most intolerant, depressing, fake, and antisocial place ever (and, of course, many complain about its politics.) I wonder if there’s anyone who has a relatively neutral or mixed view of the area, lol.

Anyway, my #hottake is that the City Attorney race is at least Lean Davison, closer to Likely than Toss-Up. Kennedy didn’t finish that far ahead of Davison, and I have a hard time seeing Kennedy getting a majority of the Holmes votes, since even many fairly liberal people find her to be a bridge too far.

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Not going to debate the definition of "sane", but my take is that Davison is heavily favored. In my 85%+ Biden precinct, I've seen nothing but Davison signs, often coupled with BLM signs and near cars with Biden/Harris bumper stickers. I'd rate the race at least Lean Davison, probably closer to Likely than Toss-Up, and while I'll have to end up voting for her, she's not making me at all happy about it. Harrell should easily win the mayoral race.

The leadership in my union seems to want to donate money to oppose the Sawant recall, while many actual members are, at the very least, not in favor of choosing a side. This is a real problem with our union, the disconnect between the leadership and the members, and I worry that this is what leads many people to have a negative view of unions. They see the political donations and over-the-top statements of the leadership, and don't understand the importance of the protection they offer to workers, especially when dealing with an organization that is bureaucratic at best, and happy to shaft its employees at every turn at worst.

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If Davison pulls this off, I guess it shows that even one of the most loony left places in the country has its limits.

Most of Seattle really isn't that "loony." Left-wing, yes, but the loons are just very vocal.

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The leadership in my union seems to want to donate money to oppose the Sawant recall, while many actual members are, at the very least, not in favor of choosing a side. This is a real problem with our union, the disconnect between the leadership and the members, and I worry that this is what leads many people to have a negative view of unions. They see the political donations and over-the-top statements of the leadership, and don't understand the importance of the protection they offer to workers, especially when dealing with an organization that is bureaucratic at best, and happy to shaft its employees at every turn at worst.

No, these people hate the very idea of unions, quite literally viewing any sort of social mobility or perceived break from people providing goods and services to them as an evil of itself. Employers especially do not like unions and don’t see you as someone worth giving a damn about.

To be clear, I'm not talking about employers here. Yes, plenty of people are anti-union because they don't like employees having bargaining power. What I'm talking about is people who want to quit their union specially because they don't like the fact that the leadership is endorsing candidates/causes that they're not behind. To them, it feels out of place, or as if their voices don't matter.

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Sawant only cares about herself.  She doesn't care about your union and she doesn't care about you.

Oh, I know that Sawant is a grandstander. I don't really want the union getting involved either way, since the membership is at least somewhat divided, and they shouldn't be endorsing anyone without at least a clear consensus. Even then, I have mixed feeling about unions endorsing political campaigns, rather than focusing on workplace issues, of which there are many.

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Most statewide officeholders in Washington are not "loony" or "extreme" by any means. And no, lol, Davison is not winning as Governor (much less in a "landslide.") She's only winning this race because her opponent is a complete lunatic. Democrats are not about to get someone like Thomas Kennedy into the top two, so Davison would not have much of a chance.

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Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

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Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

I really hope you're right about that one.

I’m pretty confident Davison will win. I have a difficult time imagining a Biden/NTK voter, and I know many Warren or Sanders/Davison voters (including myself.) Not to mention, my neighborhood is extremely Biden-friendly, has many BLM signs and Ive seen nothing but Davison signs. Given what I know about those further left than I am in this city, I don’t think there will be many “shy NTK voters.” It’s the Council Position 9 race that I’m the least sure about.

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Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

I really hope you're right about that one.

I’m pretty confident Davison will win. I have a difficult time imagining a Biden/NTK voter, and I know many Warren or Sanders/Davison voters (including myself.) Not to mention, my neighborhood is extremely Biden-friendly, has many BLM signs and Ive seen nothing but Davison signs. Given what I know about those further left than I am in this city, I don’t think there will be many “shy NTK voters.” It’s the Council Position 9 race that I’m the least sure about.

Serious question: what is exactly is attractive to you about a city attorney candidate who has only tried six cases in her life, enthusiastically supports "blue lives matter", has unsavory connections to someone involved in the January 6 riot, doesn't support mask mandates, and doesn't support LGBT-related education in schools? I mean, we know why Gmac supports her, and it's because he's an unashamed Republican hack. But your support is a lot more baffling.

My vote is a purely anti-NTK vote. She literally wants to abolish the police and cheers on property damage, among many other crazy things. I may be quite left-wing, but that’s a bridge too far even for me. I don’t have high hopes for Davison, though.

[Xing]

Voted yesterday. I'll make a few predictions (not going to predict every race, obviously):

Mayor: Harrell 60-40
City Attorney: Davison 56-44
City Council Position 8: Mosqueda 57-43
City Council Position 9: Nelson 52-48

I really hope you're right about that one.

I’m pretty confident Davison will win. I have a difficult time imagining a Biden/NTK voter, and I know many Warren or Sanders/Davison voters (including myself.) Not to mention, my neighborhood is extremely Biden-friendly, has many BLM signs and Ive seen nothing but Davison signs. Given what I know about those further left than I am in this city, I don’t think there will be many “shy NTK voters.” It’s the Council Position 9 race that I’m the least sure about.

Serious question: what is exactly is attractive to you about a city attorney candidate who has only tried six cases in her life, enthusiastically supports "blue lives matter", has unsavory connections to someone involved in the January 6 riot, doesn't support mask mandates, and doesn't support LGBT-related education in schools? I mean, we know why Gmac supports her, and it's because he's an unashamed Republican hack. But your support is a lot more baffling.

My vote is a purely anti-NTK vote. She literally wants to abolish the police and cheers on property damage, among many other crazy things. I may be quite left-wing, but that’s a bridge too far even for me. I don’t have high hopes for Davison, though.

That really doesn't sound like an accurate evaluation of her views. Davison, on the other hand, is running solely out of racist NIMBYism and a desire to see petty criminals get long jail sentences. If anything, vote for neither - but NTK is a vote against a lot of the inequality in the criminal justice system that continues to be pervasive, so that would be an obvious vote for me.

I didn’t want to believe it, but her Tweets really do speak for themselves, and an insincere “apology” (if we want to call it that) isn’t enough to convince me otherwise. She literally calls herself an abolitionist, and while there is absolutely a lot wrong with law enforcement, and simply throwing more people in prison is not going to solve issues of rising crime and homelessness in Seattle, neither will abolishing the police and not prosecuting any minor crimes. I’m not sure if Davison is motivated by NIMBYism so much as opportunism, and as I said, I don’t like her and would’ve definitely voted for Holmes over her, but it’s a two person race now, and I can’t allow someone like NTK to win.

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Xing how close would you place yourself to the median voter in Seattle ?

Hard to say, maybe I’m somewhat close to the median? There are definitely voters to my right here, especially on economic issues, but there are also a fair amount of very far left-wing people here (though it does sort of depend on how left and right are defined), and I’m sort of in this no man’s land between the more moderate Democrats and the hardcore socialists. Gun to my head, the median voter is a hair to my right on economic issues and a hair to my left on social issues.

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I actually don’t live in District 3, but I would vote for the recall if I did. I used to think that Sawant was “necessary”, since I thought she was abrasive but at least worked in good faith toward solutions that would help with affordable housing and criminal justice reform, but I’ve come to see her as a grandstander who has done some pretty shady things. Looking back to 2019, I would’ve happily traded Sawant for Sean Scott, someone who shares a fair amount of her views but who would be a much more effective councilperson who wouldn’t seek as much attention.

As for whether it will be successful… if it were happening this November and were city-wide I think she would go down, and it probably wouldn’t be that close. Many who even support a lot of her views think she’s overstayed her welcome and isn’t actually helping address the homelessness crisis or bring about reform to the criminal justice system. However, since it’s not until December, turnout is naturally going to be lower and more concentrated among those who are engaged, and the fact that opponents have labeled it the “right wing” recall is probably going to turn some people off from it. Plus, Capitol Hill is the kind of place where Sawant is going to have a strong base of support, and some who don’t like her might still think that the recall is a waste of time and money. I think it’s going to be close, and I’m hoping my union doesn’t donate to help her, especially since there’s not a clear consensus among members, and some of my coworkers were privately not happy about the union considering this. If I had to guess, I think she’s at a slight disadvantage, but it’s far from guaranteed that the recall will be successful.

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Harrell has definitely won, Nelson almost certainly has, too (expected this race to be a bit closer, though her lead will probably shrink a bit), and since progressives usually gain in later ballots, Mosqueda likely wins as well. Davison is definitely favored, her lead will probably shrink, but there likely aren’t enough ballots left for NTK to catch up. Will likely end up a bit closer than my prediction, though.

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Harrell is honestly decently progressive, and his tenure on the council isn’t exactly that of a right-winger. Anyway, a good rule of thumb would be to add 5-6% to the candidate further left (or the one considered further left.) Sean Scott was down by about the same as NTK on Election Night, and he lost by 4 in the end. Might not play out the same way with later votes this year, but that’s just something to keep in mind.

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Got our first update, not a big change, Davison’s lead is down percentage-wise slightly to 16%, but her raw vote lead is up slightly to 24K, so that’s a good sign for her, but still a lot left to count.

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The other union rep at my school and I did a poll to see how much support there would actually be for the current NBIs, including supporting Sawant and funding “ethnic studies”, which could include CRT. So far, 75% are asking us to vote no on both. We’ll vote based on what the people in our building want,  though I’m not sure other building reps are doing the same thing, and may just vote based on what they want. I still think Sawant is going down, but I’ll be a bit annoyed if the union basically goes against what most of its members want.

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With all but a small handful left to count, looks like it’s Davison +3.8. A fairly close call, but definitely suggests that the politics of Seattle voters are a little more nuanced than most suggest.

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Glad that my union did not end up financially supporting her, although several members got very salty about that. There are much better progressives out there than her.