I stand by what I said early, big Labor will pick up Crist, Schauer, Wolf and Quinn and Michaud.
Yet Wolf already has a landslide, Michaud is actually leading right now (albeit quite narrowly), and Crist is effectively tied, while Quinn and Schauer are both behind. (I know Schauer is catching up, and have even shifted that race to Toss-Up, but I'd still bet on Snyder if the election was held today - we'll see how things look in November.)
Quinn only won in 2010 because his opponent was Brady. This time, he has a MUCH stronger opponent and a much lower approval rating. It's not going to be a democratic wave either, which again, was the only thing that got Blagovich a victory in '06. The fact that even a D internal has Quinn down is even more evidence that Rauner indeed has an advantage, and this race continues to perfectly fit a Leans R rating. Of course, I'm perfectly willing to shift my rating if the polling suddenly shifts back in Quinn's direction, but right now there's no polling to show such a thing, in fact the last poll that showed Quinn leading (barely) was back in November of 2013. I do fully expect this race to be within single digits due to Cook County, WAA is indeed overestimating things, but it doesn't currently look like it will be enough to fully save Quinn.
