Likely 2016 House Pickups for Democrats?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

MI-07? I live there. Tim Walberg is a third-rate political hack in a district that should be tailor-made for a Gerald Ford but that now has a Republican representative better suited for the Texas Panhandle than for south-central Michigan.

Tim Walberg simply does what Koch fronts tell him to do. It is only a matter of time.

I would generally agree with Walberg description, but he was able to win legislative seat for 16 years, and 4 out of 6 races for Congress (losing once in primary, where votes were heavily split, and 1 in general in extremely good Democratic year). So, either he is not so dumb, or - district is really conservative enough....

Walberg is really not an impressive politician, more of a lucky one. He barely survived 2006 before loosing to Mark Schauer in 2008, then the 2010 wave swept him back in. In 2012 he got a decent 55-45 win over his opponent, which looks impressive until you find out that Walberg's opponent was a nobody 9/11 truther who had no funding from the Democratic Party. And then in 2014, another wave saves him in a close 53-41 race.

This year, however, he faces Gretchen Driskell, a very good challenger. She's experienced with tough races, can fundraise, and has somewhat of a "rising star" quality to her. IIRC, Sabato, Cook, and Rothenberg all have MI-07 rated as a Toss-Up this year.



Other races I would consider "sleeper" races that might become really competitive are UT-04; where Doug Owens seems likely to rematch Mia Love, CA-21; where former State Sen. Michael Rubio may be exploring a bid against David Valadao, and CA-25; which I predict Hillary will carry in 2016.

Source for the bolded part?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sabato lists the following as Toss-Up Republican Seats. Here's my assessment of their vulnerability:

AZ-2 - Sally only won by 167 votes in 2014. Most obvious vulnerability.
IA-1 - Blum was a wave-rider. That being said, he did run slightly ahead of Ernst (who also carried the district) and shouldn't be counted out.
IL-10 - Schneider and Dold are locked in an eternal duel. However, Dold will likely have an easier time than he did in 2012 due to the fact that Kirk will likely run several points ahead of him in the district and provide some coattails. It will likely take a climate slightly better than 2012 to take Dold out.
NH-1 - Like Dold, Guinta will be helped in his eternal duel by the presence of a republican senator on the ballot - in this case, Kelly Ayotte. Probably roughly as vulnerable as Dold.
NV-4 - A result of anemic turnout due to Sandoval running essentially unopposed for Governor. This one probably flips unless Lucy Flores is the nominee, in which case it starts as Lean R.
NY-24, NY-19, PA-8 - Totally dependent on recruitment. With the right candidates, I could see these districts being anywhere from Lean D to Likely R in 2016.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Frank Guinta is definitely NOT a liberal Republican...even calling him a moderate is a very VERY big stretch.    
He favors abolishing the IRS,
He's VERY pro-life
He denies any and all man-made climate change
He supports abolishing the Department of Education
He's voted yes to repeal the ACA every chance he's gotten
He has the fricking Tea Party flag raised at his own fricking fund raisers and campaign events!!!

How in the hell does anyone call Guinta anything but an extreme right wing conservative?

<---- (Lives in Guinta's district btw)

How does he win his district then? Is Shea-Porter gaffe-prone or something? It's not as if NH-1 is a conservative bastion.