Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Still Lean R. A month is a very long time in politics, and we have precisely one poll showing Jones in the lead, and even that poll shows him under 50. Remember that in southern states, virtually all undecideds break for the republican.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Still Lean R. A month is a very long time in politics, and we have precisely one poll showing Jones in the lead, and even that poll shows him under 50. Remember that in southern states, virtually all undecideds break for the republican.

What an astonishingly bad analysis, even by your standards.

You would probably vote for Moore, yet you shoot down analysis saying Moore will win. #AtlasLogic

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ Yes, really. Even in D waves. For an example of that, see TN SEN '06.

AL.com editorial: Moore is grossly unfit for office

Look at the comments to see the true opinions of Alabama voters:

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Moore is going to win.

This. While Moore will win by a very embarrassing margin for a republican in Alabama, probably in the ballpark of 52-48, he will win, at least according to the data we have right now. I know that North Carolina Yankee is begging for a Jones to win as a means of repowering the establishment, that Dems are begging for a Jones win for obvious reasons, and that Santander is begging for a Jones win probably for trolling purposes. But at the end of the day, we simply don't have the polling data to show a Jones win at. Remember that McCaskill was leading in the polls consistently past-Akin. We have not seen that yet. We may see it eventually. But not yet.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So is IceSpear still screaming "LALALA I CAN'T HEAR YOU" with his fingers stuck in his ears?

Is that not what you've done with every poll that has Moore still ahead (i.e. most of them)?

This. I know it's Atlas Culture to overreact, but it's a poor strategy for political prediction. If the polls showing Jones in the lead are to come out, let them come out, and then I will be happy to change my rating. There is no need for a rush to judgment based on our preferred outcomes; that is one of many factors that doomed a large array of Atlas members including myself in our efforts to predict the 2016 election. I used this principle, along with many others, to correctly predict that Ralph Northam and Phil Murphy would win their respective gubernatorial elections. I look forward to also predicting the correct winner for this election.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

How did none of this come about in any of his court races? Are there no investigative journalists in Alabama?

Court races are low profile contests that no one cares about. Thus, no investigative research takes place.