$1.5 Trillion GOP Tax Cut Thread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Daines just voted AYE on MTP. What a cuck.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Motion to Proceed passes 52-48. No defections.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If they want to do that under Reconcillation, under the rules of the Senate it would have to wait until Fiscal 2019, which starts a month before the midterms.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Did anyone else notice that all the pundits who cried about how Obama and the Democrats' bills were so mean, partisan, and divisive in 2009-2010 have all vanished without a trace?

Obamacare received very favorable press from the press

Between May of 2009 to April of 2010, 88.5% of news articles and WH corespondent tweets were favorable of the bill

It's part of the reason Obamacare didn't cost Dems any seats

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2010

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Post-MTP: Collins and Daines move from Lean Opposed to Toss-Up.

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: All 48 Dems

Likely Opposed: N/A

Lean Opposed: N/A

Toss-Up:
Lankford - He's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant.  He's also called for a trigger provision that would raise tax rates in times of insufficent economic growth, and has explicitly refused to endorse the bill as written, although he has yet to explicitly oppose the bill and is generally a reliable vote for leadership.

Corker - Voted Yes in committee, but has been clear that his support on final passage will depend on the inclusion of a trigger provision in the bill. It is unclear if such a provision will be in the final version of the bill.

Collins - Appeared to indicate on 11/19 CNN interview that her support would depend on passage of Alexander-Murray and a separate bill she wrote with Senator Nelson, and keeping the top rate at 39.6%, instead of lowering it to 38.5%. She has, however, recently been given assurances that Trump supports both bills, and voted Yes on the Motion to Proceed.

Daines - Bloomberg and Fox Business have stated that a Daines staff member says he is a no, while CNN and the Washington Post have stated that Daines has raised concerns about certain corporate provisions in the bill without explicitly stating he has threatened to vote no. He surprisingly voted Yes on the Motion to Proceed, and some of his concerns have been addressed, but his previous statements of opposition have not been explicitly revoked and thus MAY still be valid.

Lean Support:
Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, and has raised real doubts about the eventual affect of the bill, but also probably supports the intent of this bill, and he did vote for all versions of ObamaCare Repeal.

Kennedy - Has threatened to vote against the bill if McConnell decides to include a Trigger provision, which McConnell may do to please Lankford and Corker.

Likely Support:
McCain - Voted against Skinny Repeal and opposed Graham-Cassidy, but he is a strong supporter of the tax cut portions of this bill, and his opposition to repeal was based more on the process of passage rather than the substance of the bill. I doubt mandate repeal alone would be a dealbreaker to him. But it's not impossible.

Young - Apparently has been raising deficit-related concerns about the bill, but I highly doubt he actually has a backbone.

Paul - Despite his previous stance against the framework, Paul "supports the bill as it stands right now", as reported by Bloomberg News. Still keep an eye on him, as the bill may be amended on the senate floor and it's not impossible that it could be amended in such a way that it changes his stance.

Safe Support: Other 43 GOP Senators


Overall: 48 AGAINST, 48 SUPPORT, 4 TOSS-UP

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A motion by Sen. Ron Wyden to return the bill to Committee will receive a vote at 8 PM EST.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The motion by Sen. Wyden to return the bill to committee has failed on a 48-51 Vote. McCain abstained.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Senate Stands adjourned until 10:30 AM ET tomorrow.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Castro, gass, dwarven, yank, etc...... would you say the odds of this thing passing are above 50%?

Yeah, but not by much - probably like 53% or something.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's still unclear if the Senate Final Passage Vote will be late tomorrow or Friday, but per HuffPo, Ryan is reportedly telling House Members to be prepared to take a procedural vote to create the conference committee at some point on Friday. Could be a sign that Republicans are confident they have the votes in the Senate.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

McCain joins the Safe Support column:

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: All 48 Dems

Likely Opposed: N/A

Lean Opposed: N/A

Toss-Up:
Lankford - He's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant.  He's also called for a trigger provision that would raise tax rates in times of insufficent economic growth, and has explicitly refused to endorse the bill as written, although he has yet to explicitly oppose the bill and is generally a reliable vote for leadership.

Corker - Voted Yes in committee, but has been clear that his support on final passage will depend on the inclusion of a trigger provision in the bill. It is unclear if such a provision will be in the final version of the bill.

Collins - Appeared to indicate on 11/19 CNN interview that her support would depend on passage of Alexander-Murray and a separate bill she wrote with Senator Nelson, and keeping the top rate at 39.6%, instead of lowering it to 38.5%. She has, however, recently been given assurances that Trump supports both bills, and voted Yes on the Motion to Proceed.

Daines - Bloomberg and Fox Business have stated that a Daines staff member says he is a no, while CNN and the Washington Post have stated that Daines has raised concerns about certain corporate provisions in the bill without explicitly stating he has threatened to vote no. He surprisingly voted Yes on the Motion to Proceed, and some of his concerns have been addressed, but his previous statements of opposition have not been explicitly revoked and thus MAY still be valid.

Lean Support:
Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, and has raised real doubts about the eventual affect of the bill, but also probably supports the intent of this bill, and he did vote for all versions of ObamaCare Repeal.

Kennedy - Has threatened to vote against the bill if McConnell decides to include a Trigger provision, which McConnell may do to please Lankford and Corker.

Likely Support:
Young - Apparently has been raising deficit-related concerns about the bill, but I highly doubt he actually has a backbone.

Paul - Despite his previous stance against the framework, Paul "supports the bill as it stands right now", as reported by Bloomberg News. Still keep an eye on him, as the bill may be amended on the senate floor and it's not impossible that it could be amended in such a way that it changes his stance.

Safe Support: Other 44 GOP Senators


Overall: 48 AGAINST, 48 SUPPORT, 4 TOSS-UP

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The Senate is now voting on a motion by Sen. Brown to send the bill back to committee.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The motion by Sen. Brown to send the bill back to committee has failed by a vote of 48-52.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Senate voting on motion by Sen. Casey to send bill back to committee.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The motion by Sen. Casey to send the bill back to committee has failed by a vote of 48-51. Sen. McCain abstained.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Corker and flake announce they are unwavering no's

Source?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I looked through his twitter account, and no, Corker and Flake haven't said they're against, they're just showing signs of being up to something. His tweet about Kennedy being okay with the trigger now is useful though, as it allows me to move Kennedy back to Safe Support:

To Summarize the view of the Senate:

Solidly Opposed: All 48 Dems

Likely Opposed: N/A

Lean Opposed: N/A

Toss-Up:
Lankford - He's said he'll vote against it "if it increases the deficit too much" - but didn't define what too much meant.  He's also called for a trigger provision that would raise tax rates in times of insufficent economic growth, and has explicitly refused to endorse the bill as written, although he has yet to explicitly oppose the bill and is generally a reliable vote for leadership.

Corker - Voted Yes in committee, but has been clear that his support on final passage will depend on the inclusion of a trigger provision in the bill. It is unclear if such a provision will be in the final version of the bill.

Collins - Appeared to indicate on 11/19 CNN interview that her support would depend on passage of Alexander-Murray and a separate bill she wrote with Senator Nelson, and keeping the top rate at 39.6%, instead of lowering it to 38.5%. She has, however, recently been given assurances that Trump supports both bills, and voted Yes on the Motion to Proceed.

Daines - Bloomberg and Fox Business have stated that a Daines staff member says he is a no, while CNN and the Washington Post have stated that Daines has raised concerns about certain corporate provisions in the bill without explicitly stating he has threatened to vote no. He surprisingly voted Yes on the Motion to Proceed, and some of his concerns have been addressed, but his previous statements of opposition have not been explicitly revoked and thus MAY still be valid.

Lean Support:
Flake - Might want to show opposition to Trump, and has raised real doubts about the eventual affect of the bill, but also probably supports the intent of this bill, and he did vote for all versions of ObamaCare Repeal.

Likely Support:
Young - Apparently has been raising deficit-related concerns about the bill, but I highly doubt he actually has a backbone.

Paul - Despite his previous stance against the framework, Paul "supports the bill as it stands right now", as reported by Bloomberg News. Still keep an eye on him, as the bill may be amended on the senate floor and it's not impossible that it could be amended in such a way that it changes his stance.

Safe Support: Other 45 GOP Senators


Overall: 48 AGAINST, 48 SUPPORT, 4 TOSS-UP

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I don't think I would have voted for the Bush Tax Cuts. Reagan was different, the top rate was 50%+ then, which is too high for me.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

DYNAMIC SCORE RELEASED: Even assuming large amounts of economic growth, bill still raises deficit by $1,006,700,000,000.  https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=download&id=5045&chk=5045&no_html=1

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I cannot wait for Republicans to sh**t themselves again, wait for a Democratic President to come in, then make massive midterm gains off blaming the Democrat for their own incompetence. It's the cycle of life.

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if the 2022 midterms under a D are another shellacking, to the point that Cortez-Masto, Bennet, Hassan, and Duckworth all go down.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Senate now voting on motion by Sen. King to send bill back to committee.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Okay, as we continue to wait, something to note about this motion by Sen. Angus King (I): Each motion to recommit comes with instructions of what the committee is supposed to do. The instructions for this one? "Modify the bill to make it deficit-neutral". The previous three attempts called for taking out certain tax cuts.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

@Mondale: Hmmm, that's strange, they'd normally never be consulted on a motion to recommit.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The motion by Sen. King to return to committee has failed by a vote of 48-52.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If this thing seriously fails, we all need to write letters of great thanks to the Senate Parliamentarian, a true American Hero.