State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Okay, Butler County, how bad is it? 60% R? 70% R? 80% R?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Totals:

Sweeney (R) 4742 (56%)
Freese (D) 3726 (44%)
Write-In 5 (0%)

A disappointment, but it could be far worse.

That wraps up tonight. The next elections are on the 24th.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Today, there will be 11 special elections in New York: 9 for the State Assembly and 2 for the State Senate. All polls close at 9 ET. All results will be here: https://nyenr.elections.ny.gov/ . By default, the page will load the State Senate races. To switch to the Assembly races, select that option in the contest dropdown and click Search. I'd like to thank the state of New York for being far better than many other states in providing results for special elections.

A reminder that there will also be a special election in AZ-8, which will be covered on the appropriate threads in the congressional board. If at all possible, I will have the NY races called before AZ-8 begins reporting results at 11 ET.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First round of Wulfric Projections incoming:


39th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 43,860)   Election Districts Reporting: 48 of 56
Ari Espinal   DEM   .   73.82 %   502   .   89.85 %   611
WOR   .   13.53 %   92           
WEP   .   2.50 %   17           
Blank         0.59 %   4      0.59 %   4
Void      .   1.03 %   7   .   1.03 %   7
Write-in      .   8.53 %   58   .   8.53 %   58
Total Votes   680

74th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 76,195)   Election Districts Reporting: 87 of 107
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Harvey Epstein   DEM   .   77.27 %   2,451   .   90.20 %   2,861
WOR   .   12.93 %   410           
Bryan Cooper   REP   .   5.04 %   160   .   5.04 %   160
Adrienne R. Craig-Williams   GRE   .   2.21 %   70   .   2.21 %   70
Juan Pagan   REF   .   1.92 %   61   .   1.92 %   61
Blank         0.03 %   1      0.03 %   1
Void         0.28 %   9      0.28 %   9
Write-in         0.32 %   10      0.32 %   10
Total Votes   3,172


80th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 58,363)   Election Districts Reporting: 85 of 95
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Nathalia Fernandez   DEM   .   78.04 %   1,432   .   80.60 %   1,479
IND   .   2.56 %   47           
Gene Defrancis   REP   .   13.08 %   240   .   18.47 %   339
CON   .   4.31 %   79           
REF   .   1.09 %   20           
Blank         0.33 %   6      0.33 %   6
Void         0.11 %   2      0.11 %   2
Write-in         0.49 %   9      0.49 %   9
Total Votes   1,835

 32nd Senate District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 164,917)   Election Districts Reporting: 153 of 219
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Luis Sepulveda   DEM   .   89.21 %   1,736   .   89.21 %   1,736
Patrick Delices   REP   .   2.47 %   48   .   2.47 %   48
Pamela Stewart-Martinez   REF   .   6.17 %   120   .   6.17 %   120
Blank         0.15 %   3      0.15 %   3
Void      .   1.28 %   25   .   1.28 %   25
Write-in         0.72 %   14      0.72 %   14
Total Votes   1,946

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

10th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 85,925)   Election Districts Reporting: 63 of 105
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Steve Stern   DEM   .   50.82 %   2,916   .   56.12 %   3,220
WOR   .   2.14 %   123           
IND   .   1.86 %   107           
WEP   .   1.01 %   58           
REF      0.28 %   16           
Janet L. Smitelli   REP   .   34.73 %   1,993   .   43.83 %   2,515
CON   .   9.10 %   522           
Blank         0.03 %   2      0.03 %   2
Void         0.02 %   1      0.02 %   1
Write-in         0.00 %   0      0.00 %   0
Total Votes   5,738

Dems at 5-0 so far.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AD 102 not looking good for dems:

102nd Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 80,852)   Election Districts Reporting: 35 of 126
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Aidan S. O'Connor, Jr.   DEM   .   40.32 %   1,965   .   47.64 %   2,322
WOR   .   5.35 %   261           
WEP   .   1.97 %   96           
Christopher Tague   REP   .   37.67 %   1,836   .   50.43 %   2,458
CON   .   10.20 %   497           
IND   .   2.05 %   100           
REF      0.51 %   25           
Wesley D. Laraway   THE   .   1.85 %   90   .   1.85 %   90
Blank         0.02 %   1      0.02 %   1
Void         0.00 %   0      0.00 %   0
Write-in         0.06 %   3      0.06 %   3
Total Votes   4,874

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Uh, never mind:

 102nd Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 80,852)   Election Districts Reporting: 50 of 126
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Aidan S. O'Connor, Jr.   DEM   .   44.67 %   3,053   .   52.33 %   3,576
WOR   .   5.65 %   386           
WEP   .   2.00 %   137           
Christopher Tague   REP   .   34.08 %   2,329   .   46.03 %   3,146
CON   .   9.58 %   655           
IND   .   1.92 %   131           
REF      0.45 %   31           
Wesley D. Laraway   THE   .   1.57 %   107   .   1.57 %   107
Blank         0.01 %   1      0.01 %   1
Void         0.01 %   1      0.01 %   1
Write-in         0.04 %   3      0.04 %   3
Total Votes   6,834

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: FIRST REPUBLICAN WIN

5th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 82,360)   Election Districts Reporting: 74 of 82
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Deborah L. Slinkosky   DEM   .   37.80 %   1,499   .   37.80 %   1,499
Douglas M. Smith   REP   .   44.93 %   1,782   .   62.05 %   2,461
CON   .   13.21 %   524           
IND   .   3.56 %   141           
REF      0.35 %   14           
Blank         0.03 %   1      0.03 %   1
Void         0.00 %   0      0.00 %   0
Write-in         0.13 %   5      0.13 %   5
Total Votes   3,966

5-1 D now, with 5 races outstanding.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Gap getting very small. Rs probably have this:

102nd Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 80,852)   Election Districts Reporting: 69 of 126
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Aidan S. O'Connor, Jr.   DEM   .   43.13 %   4,101   .   50.23 %   4,776
WOR   .   5.10 %   485           
WEP   .   2.00 %   190           
Christopher Tague   REP   .   35.84 %   3,408   .   48.05 %   4,569
CON   .   9.52 %   905           
IND   .   2.22 %   211           
REF      0.47 %   45           
Wesley D. Laraway   THE   .   1.64 %   156   .   1.64 %   156
Blank         0.02 %   2      0.02 %   2
Void         0.02 %   2      0.02 %   2
Write-in         0.03 %   3      0.03 %   3
Total Votes   9,508

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nonzero chance that the Schoharie county result is in error.

Yeah, it's best to take anything not yet on the NYS site with a grain of salt.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

 37th Senate District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 192,318)   Election Districts Reporting: 61 of 313
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Shelley Mayer   DEM   .   56.44 %   4,228   .   60.55 %   4,536
WOR   .   2.95 %   221           
WEP   .   1.16 %   87           
Julie P. Killian   REP   .   32.44 %   2,430   .   38.65 %   2,895
CON   .   5.50 %   412           
REF      0.71 %   53           
Blank         0.71 %   53      0.71 %   53
Void         0.01 %   1      0.01 %   1
Write-in         0.08 %   6      0.08 %   6
Total Votes   7,491

Dems at 6-1 now. They were at 7-4 in these seats coming into tonight.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

107th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 86,761)   Election Districts Reporting: 104 of 111
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Cynthia Doran   DEM   .   41.01 %   5,840   .   47.96 %   6,829
WOR   .   4.23 %   602           
WEP   .   2.72 %   387           
Jacob C. Ashby   REP   .   36.67 %   5,222   .   51.91 %   7,391
CON   .   10.00 %   1,424           
IND   .   4.60 %   655           
REF      0.63 %   90           
Blank         0.01 %   2      0.01 %   2
Void         0.01 %   1      0.01 %   1
Write-in         0.11 %   16      0.11 %   16
Total Votes   14,239

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Someone, please tell me that what just happened on the election results page was just a glitch and that 17, 102, AND 107 didn't all just dump together.

There's no evidence to suggest that it's a glitch.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

17th Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 93,713)   Election Districts Reporting: 83 of 109
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Mathew W. Malin   DEM   .   29.26 %   732   .   32.21 %   806
WOR   .   1.88 %   47           
WEP   .   1.08 %   27           
John K. Mikulin   REP   .   53.72 %   1,344   .   66.75 %   1,670
CON   .   11.31 %   283           
IND   .   1.52 %   38           
REF      0.20 %   5           
Blank         0.00 %   0      0.00 %   0
Void         0.08 %   2      0.08 %   2
Write-in         0.96 %   24      0.96 %   24
Total Votes   2,502

The Dems at 6-3 now, with 102 and 142 outstanding. If both of those go R, Republicans would have a net gain of one seat.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

FFS Wulfric both candidates in 142 are Democrats

I'm going by what they're listed by on the ballot.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah Wulfric if 142 goes R it's an overall wash I think.

Also which one's the other GOP gain? Dems gained 10...

Pretty sure they only gained 142.

The GOP held 4 of these seats coming into tonight. Tonight, they've won ADs 5, 17, and 107. 102 and 142 are uncalled but they lead in both. That's 5, one more than 4, if they sweep.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah Wulfric if 142 goes R it's an overall wash I think.

Also which one's the other GOP gain? Dems gained 10...

Pretty sure they only gained 142.

The GOP held 4 of these seats coming into tonight. Tonight, they've won ADs 5, 17, and 107. 102 and 142 are uncalled but they lead in both. That's 5, one more than 4, if they sweep.

They held AD-10 before tonight and lost that.

Right, but one of 102 or 107 is currently held by Ds (forget which), and 142 is also D-held.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

No. They had 5,10,17,102,107.

(At least according to Limo's thread)

I saw an earlier comment on this thread with only 4 of those listed that no one replied to, but whatever.

So even according to ballot designations if the current leaders stay ahead.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

GOP wins 142 officially:

142nd Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 84,754)   Election Districts Reporting: 55 of 55
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Patrick B. Burke   DEM   .   42.95 %   4,787   .   47.49 %   5,293
WOR   .   3.71 %   414           
REF      0.83 %   92           
Erik T. Bohen   REP   .   35.25 %   3,929   .   52.32 %   5,831
CON   .   10.66 %   1,188           
IND   .   6.41 %   714           
Blank         0.03 %   3      0.03 %   3
Void         0.05 %   6      0.05 %   6
Write-in         0.11 %   12      0.11 %   12
Total Votes   11,145

So 6-4 now.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Only outstanding race is very close.

102nd Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 80,852)   Election Districts Reporting: 124 of 126
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Aidan S. O'Connor, Jr.   DEM   .   38.17 %   7,028   .   44.34 %   8,164
WOR   .   4.38 %   807           
WEP   .   1.79 %   329           
Christopher Tague   REP   .   34.47 %   6,347   .   45.84 %   8,439
CON   .   8.41 %   1,548           
IND   .   2.47 %   455           
REF      0.48 %   89           
Wesley D. Laraway   THE   .   9.72 %   1,789   .   9.72 %   1,789
Blank         0.02 %   4      0.02 %   4
Void         0.04 %   7      0.04 %   7
Write-in         0.04 %   8      0.04 %   8
Total Votes   18,411

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

102nd Assembly District > All Counties (Active Registered Voters: 80,852)   Election Districts Reporting: 126 of 126
Candidate   Party   Graph (by Party)   % (by Party)   Votes (by Party)   Graph (by Candidate)   % (by Candidate)   Votes (by Candidate)
Aidan S. O'Connor, Jr.   DEM   .   38.16 %   7,110   .   44.32 %   8,259
WOR   .   4.37 %   814           
WEP   .   1.80 %   335           
Christopher Tague   REP   .   34.54 %   6,437   .   45.87 %   8,547
CON   .   8.39 %   1,563           
IND   .   2.45 %   457           
REF      0.48 %   90           
Wesley D. Laraway   THE   .   9.71 %   1,809   .   9.71 %   1,809
Blank         0.02 %   4      0.02 %   4
Void         0.04 %   7      0.04 %   7
Write-in         0.04 %   8      0.04 %   8
Total Votes   18,634

Final composition is 6-5 Dem, no overall change.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Schedule for May

May 1

Florida
See also: Florida state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Florida House of Representatives District 39   
[show]☐ Florida House of Representatives District 114   
Massachusetts
See also: Massachusetts state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Massachusetts State Senate First Suffolk District   
South Carolina
See also: South Carolina state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ South Carolina House of Representatives District 69

May 5

Texas
See also: Texas state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Texas House of Representatives District 13

May 15

Alabama
See also: Alabama state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Alabama House of Representatives District 4   
[show]☐ Alabama State Senate District 26   
Pennsylvania
See also: Pennsylvania state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 48   
[show]☐ Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 68   
[show]☐ Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 178   

May 22

Arkansas
See also: Arkansas state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Arkansas State Senate District 16   
[show]☐ Arkansas State Senate District 29   
[show]☐ Arkansas House of Representatives District 83   

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So wait, did Democrats just flip the state senate?

No...scammer Simcha Felder is registered as D but votes R

Wait a minute. I don't have the link, but I read an article in the last day or two that Felder is expected, after extracting significant concessions from the party of course, to rejoin the Democratic caucus 2 stay in the majority

The last day or two would potentially put your time of seeing that article at Monday. As of Monday, that was indeed the story, but that changed shortly before the polls closed on Tuesday: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/24/nyregion/simcha-felder-republicans-senate.html

Now, there has been stuff like this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/25/nyregion/cuomo-felder-democrats.html and this: http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/cuomo-urges-felder-seize-opportunity-rejoin-democrats-article-1.3954399 that makes it clear that Cuomo isn't giving up, but it's more in the context of Cuomo being down on his knees and begging this guy to switch over, not in the context of Felder actually reconsidering.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What’s the Massachusetts district being contested? The southie-Dorchester one?

First Suffolk district, but the Dem is running unopposed. The South Carolina race is a republican running unopposed.

Florida Results will be here once polls close at 7 ET: http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/ElectionResults/default?Election=05/01/2018

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'll go ahead and make the obvious call:

State Representative, District 39
Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Josie Tomkow   
REP   8,810   
61.79%
Ricky Shirah   
DEM   5,449   
38.21%
Total    14,259   

--------------

Still plenty to wait for in the other race. According to the display at the top, we don't even have all of the early vote for this race.

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Andrew Vargas   
REP   5,800   
52.15%
Javier Fernandez   
DEM   4,993   
44.89%
Liz de las Cuevas   
NPA   329   
2.96%
Total    11,122