State Legislature Special Election Megathread v2

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The rest of the early vote came in, narrowed the margin to under 300. Still waiting on E-day:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Andrew Vargas   
REP   6,450   
49.69%
Javier Fernandez   
DEM   6,178   
47.59%
Liz de las Cuevas   
NPA   353   
2.72%
Total    12,981

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: Fernandez wins, LimoLiberal must leave atlas for a week.

84% in:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Andrew Vargas   
REP   7,747   
46.7%
Javier Fernandez   
DEM   8,433   
50.84%
Liz de las Cuevas   
NPA   408   
2.46%
Total    16,588   

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

We have final results in the non-competitive seat now:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Josie Tomkow   
REP   9,891   
59.88%
Ricky Shirah   
DEM   6,628   
40.12%
Total    16,519

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I sent a message to LimoLiberal asking him to come on here and make a concession speech, but he doesn't appear to be responding.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final Results:

Candidate   Party   Votes Received   
Andrew Vargas   
REP   7,894   
46.64%
Javier Fernandez   
DEM   8,618   
50.92%
Liz de las Cuevas   
NPA   414   
2.45%
Total    16,926   

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The next special election is in Texas House of Representatives District 13 on Saturday.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

HD-114 shifted 10 points to the right in margin from the 2016 presidential election. FL-26, if it followed the same shift, would elect a Democrat by 6 points in November. But Curbelo is a very strong incumbent. Si fuera Curbelo, respiraría un poco más tranquilo esta noche.

But this result shows the energy that Democrats still have. It is a Republican area downballot and Vargas seemed to have many advantages, including stronger ground organization and fundraising along with the district's Republican tradition. Many observers recognized this and called the race a tossup, leading me to my rating.

I find it interesting that there was basically no shift from 2016 in HD-39, even as this area was closer in 2012. Someone brought up a great point that an Alabama candidate spent 2K while his Republican candidate spend 25 times as much and still overperformed Hillary by double digits. Ricky Shirah (D) was similarly outspent. But he didn't overperform Hillary at all. This comes as Trump hits yearly highs in approval as categorized in the RCP and 538 aggregators. We can never know if Trump's recently expanding popularity has had an effect on these elections, considering each's obscurity. But perhaps that's something to look out for in the future, with Democrats barely (or not all) putting up swings in recent NY and FL state legislative specials.

Whatever the case, it's clear that Democrats still have energy. I won't be so quick to assume that a Republican will win an election (even with seemingly stronger organization and enthusiasm) in districts that shifted left from 2012 to 2016.

Limo, you promised...

While this post offers a good recap of the race, LimoLiberal was only authorized to come back on here  to make a concession speech regarding his calling of the race for the republican. This makes no mention of his call and therefore is not such a speech, and the moderators should remove the post.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Remarks from @ScottPresler:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls close at 8 ET. Results pages:

Austin County: Possibly https://austincountynewsonline.com/election-results/

Burleson County: http://co.burleson.tx.us/government/elections/election-results/

Colorado County: http://www.co.colorado.tx.us/default.aspx?Colorado_County/Elections

Fayette County: http://www.co.fayette.tx.us/page/fayette.Elections

Grimes County: http://www.co.grimes.tx.us/page/Election%20Results

Not seeing a page for Lavaca and Washington counties.

Add up results from all counties to get the final result.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls have closed. Try to track down results.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Ben Leman   REP   1,751   39.25%   1,751   39.25%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   817   18.31%   817   18.31%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   1,893   42.43%   1,893   42.43%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      4,461      4,461   
Precincts Reported      3   of   75 Precincts      4.00%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   1,751   39.25%   1,985   38.33%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   817   18.31%   1,027   19.83%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   1,893   42.43%   2,166   41.83%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      4,461      5,178   
Precincts Reported      7   of   75 Precincts      9.33%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   2,133   39.51%   2,367   38.70%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,051   19.47%   1,261   20.62%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   2,214   41.01%   2,487   40.67%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      5,398      6,115   
Precincts Reported      8   of   75 Precincts      10.67%

The democratic candidate in 2016 received 22%, so this is a 1% swing to Rs from that.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   2,133   39.51%   2,658   38.91%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,051   19.47%   1,402   20.52%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   2,214   41.01%   2,771   40.56%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      5,398      6,831   
Precincts Reported      21   of   75 Precincts      28.00%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   2,747   40.64%   3,272   39.94%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,418   20.98%   1,769   21.59%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   2,593   38.36%   3,150   38.45%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      6,758      8,191   
Precincts Reported      27   of   75 Precincts      36.00%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   2,747   40.64%   3,488   40.21%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,418   20.98%   1,859   21.43%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   2,593   38.36%   3,326   38.34%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      6,758      8,673   
Precincts Reported      35   of   75 Precincts      46.67%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   2,747   40.64%   4,269   39.52%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,418   20.98%   2,234   20.68%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   2,593   38.36%   4,298   39.79%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      6,758      10,801   
Precincts Reported      56   of   75 Precincts      74.67%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: LEMAN WINS

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   4,138   44.52%   6,362   42.97%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,943   20.90%   3,002   20.27%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   3,213   34.57%   5,441   36.75%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      9,294      14,805   
Precincts Reported      71   of   75 Precincts      94.67%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION: LEMAN WINS

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   4,138   44.52%   6,362   42.97%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,943   20.90%   3,002   20.27%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   3,213   34.57%   5,441   36.75%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      9,294      14,805   
Precincts Reported      71   of   75 Precincts      94.67%

I thought they go to a runoff

Ballotpedia doesn't mention a runoff date for this election.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The runoff is on May 22, so your Wulfric projection was premature.

That's only for the regular elections.

----------------

Final Numbers:

RACE   NAME      PARTY   EARLY VOTES   PERCENT   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
State Representative District 13               
Ben Leman   REP   4,138   44.52%   6,695   43.31%
Cecil Ray Webster, Sr.   DEM   1,915   20.60%   3,065   19.82%
Jill Wolfskill   REP   3,241   34.87%   5,698   36.86%
-----------      -----------   
Race Total      9,294      15,458   
Precincts Reported      75   of   75 Precincts      100.00%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Next Specials: May 15:

Alabama
See also: Alabama state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Alabama House of Representatives District 4   
[show]☐ Alabama State Senate District 26   
 
Pennsylvania
See also: Pennsylvania state legislative special elections, 2018
[show]☐ Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 48   
[show]☐ Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 68   
[show]☐ Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 178   

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Five Special Elections tonight! All polls close at 8 ET.

PA 48: https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/Special/OfficeResults?ElectionID=64&ElectionType=S&IsActive=1

PA 68: https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/Special/OfficeResults?ElectionID=66&ElectionType=S&IsActive=1

PA 178: https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/Special/OfficeResults?ElectionID=65&ElectionType=S&IsActive=1

Alabama House 4 and Senate 25: Cannot find results page; search around for news.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republican win in AL HD-4:

JUANITA ALLEN HEALY (DEM) .  .  .  .  .       532 
           PARKER DUNCAN MOORE (REP) .  .  .  .  .     1,772   
           POLAN WILLIS, JR. (IND).  .  .  .  .  .       324   
           WRITE-IN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .         2   
              Over Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .         1

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION, 49% in:

68th Legislative District County Breakdown

HEATH, CARRIE
(DEM)
20.63%
    Votes: 46
OWLETT, CLINT D
(REP)
79.37%
    Votes: 177

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WULFRIC PROJECTION, 67% in:

48th Legislative District County Breakdown

MITCHELL, CLARK ALEXANDER JR
(DEM)
44.86%
    Votes: 2,786
O'NEAL, TIMOTHY
(REP)
53.44%
    Votes: 3,319
AGORIS, DEMOSTHENES
(LIB)
1.71%
    Votes: 106

With Dist 178 still outstanding, Republicans have won 3 specials tonight (48, 68, AL 4) and the Democrats have won 1 (AL 26)