2017 French Presidential Election

[Tirnam]

Tracking polls update

OpinionWay

Le Pen: 25% (-1)
Macron: 25% (+1)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 13% (+1)
Hamon: 12% (-1)

Second round
Macron 63% (+1), Le Pen 37%

Ifop

Macron: 26% (+0.5)
Le Pen: 25% (-0.5)
Fillon: 18% (=)
Mélenchon: 12.5% (+0.5)
Hamon: 11%

Second round
Macron 61.5% (+0.5), Le Pen 38.5%

And some links you may find interesting
French prediction market
Forecast website (97% chance of victory for Macron is a little bit high in my view)
HuffPost Polling aggregator (unfortunately not complete)

[Tirnam]

A new low.

Fillon accuses Hollande to be behind the revelations on him. "Never a head of State went so far in illegality"

[Tirnam]

Hollande "condemns with the utmost firmness the false allegations of Fillon"

Fillon made also a disgusting comparison by saying that his situation made him think of Bérégovoy (French PM who committed suicide after an electoral defeat and some scandal)

[Tirnam]

Polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Macron: 24% (-1)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 14% (+1)
Hamon: 11% (-1)

Second round: Macron 63% (=), Le Pen 37%

Ifop
Macron: 26% (=)
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Fillon: 18% (=)
Mélenchon: 13% (+0.5)
Hamon: 10.5% (-0.5)

Second round: Macron 61.5% (=), Le Pen 38.5%

BVA
Macron: 26% (+1 from a week ago)
Le Pen: 25% (-1)
Fillon: 17% (-2.5)
Mélenchon: 14% (+2)
Hamon: 11.5% (-1)

Second round: Macron 62% (=), Le Pen 38%

[Tirnam]

By the way, will PS just stay aside and endorse Macron in 2022 if he seeks re-election by that moment?

If Macron is elected I don't think that PS will still be a thing by 2022.

[Tirnam]

Mr Trump Fillon: it's likely that I'm tapped (and of course Hollande receives the tapes)

[Tirnam]

Yes, especially from the government. he wanted Le Drian's endorsement because he is popular and a strong asset in defense, but Macron doesn't want to appear as a Hollande successor. When there were rumors that Valls will endorse him, Macron said "I'm not a guest house"

Hamon a little bit desperate tonight: endorsements of Macron are "stabs in the back", "I'm told an execution next week with Valls' endorsement of Macron". He won't dropout in favor of Mélenchon because he "will be in the second round"

[Tirnam]

I think that out of the 4 scenarios of Rogier for the legislative elections, the number 4 is the likeliest (if Macron is elected, against Le Pen)

Here's why in my view:
-Abstention will be the same as it is since 2002: between 40 and 45%. That means that, on average, to be in the second round, if you are not one of the top 2 candidates you have to win between 20 and 25% of the vote.

-Macron promised 288 candidates outside politics, and 288 candidates who are politicians, I guess that means 100 candidates from PS, 100 candidates from right-wing movements and 88 candidates from centrist movements (or something like that).

-PS will implode between those who will want to work with Macron and those who will refuse. Those who will join Macron will find a place easily. For those who will refuse, they will be in the same position than Hamon now: stuck between the candidates of En marche (who will have the momentum of Macron's victory) and Mélenchon's party (who, if Mélenchon is ahead of Hamon, could claim the leadership in the left). In my view it's hard to imagine an average PS candidate over 15%.

-LR will be in a grave crisis after Fillon's defeat (the man who lost the election that cannot be lost), from April, 24th to May, 7th the opposition against Macron will be Le Pen and FN. I guess that some angry right-wing voters could think that FN is the best opposition against Macron. I think that an average LR candidate could be under 20%.

-So with that (abstention and the dynamics of the presidential election), I think that in a huge amount of legislative districts the runoff could be between En Marche and FN candidates. And that could lead to a comfortable En Marche majority.

Of course I speak in an average election, there will be local exceptions. And a comfortable En Marche majority doesn't presume of the integrity of a such majority during a Macron's mandate.

[Tirnam]

Ifop

Macron: 25.5% (-0.5)
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Fillon: 17.5% (-0.5)
Mélenchon: 14% (+1)
Hamon: 10.5% (=)

Second round: Macron 60,5% (-1), Le Pen 39,5%

[Tirnam]

Oops, sorry.

[Tirnam]

Some polls this morning

Ipsos for France Télévisions

Turnout index: 65%

Le Pen: 25%
Macron: 24%
Fillon: 18%
Mélenchon: 14%
Hamon: 12%

Second round
Macron 62%, Le Pen 38%

Honnest: Mélenchon 58% (for the lol: Fillon 13%)
Presidential: Macron 41% (Fillon at 26%, even behind Hamon at 27%)
Innovative: Mélenchon 44%, Macron 43%
Renewal: Macron 47%
Credible: Macron 40%
Sympathetic: Mélenchon, Macron 54%
Understand people like you: Mélenchon 53%
Will keep his promises: Mélenchon 42%

77% say that it is likely that Macron will be President (Delusional 87% of Fillon voters say that Fillon is likely the next President)

Odoxa - popularity
Most liked:
Macron: 45% (+8)
Mélenchon: 40% (+7)
Hamon: 31% (-3)
Le Pen: 29% (+4)
Fillon: 19% (-3)

Most rejected:
Fillon: 60% (+10)
Le Pen: 54% (=)
Hamon: 33% (+5)
Mélenchon: 30% (-3)
Macron: 30% (+4)


How candidates surprised you?
Mélenchon: in good 38%, in bad 9%
Macron: in good 39%, in bad 17%
Hamon: in good 23%, in bad 19%
Le Pen: in good 19%, in bad 15%
Fillon: in good 9%, in bad 57%

[Tirnam]

Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income). Mélenchon has simply a good debate performance (plus a strong rally).

Tracking polls

OpinonWay
Le Pen: 26% (=)
Macron: 24% (=)
Fillon: 20% (=)
Mélenchon: 14% (+1)
Hamon: 10% (-1)

Second round: Macron 62% (+1), Le Pen 38%

Ifop
Macron: 25.5% (=)
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Fillon: 17.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 14% (=)
Hamon: 10.5% (=)

Second round: Macron 60% (-0.5), Le Pen 40%

Mélenchon and Macron don't want to debate on April, 20.

[Tirnam]

Penelope Fillon has been indicted of complicity and concealment of embezzlement of public funds, concealment of misappropriation of social assets, and concealment of aggravated fraud in the case of his supposedly fake jobs.

[Tirnam]

Hamon and Mélenchon stand for the same ideology, they agree on everything (except for the EU, basic income).

This is obviously false. The main cleavage is that the former has been a minister during the finishing quinquennat, has a whole lot of former ministers or even outgoing ministers and deputies around him as candidates for the législatives, and is trying very hard to appear as different from the outgoing majority whereas he is just the exact same thing and would do the exact same sh**t. The latter is by any means not perfection, but at least he doesn't have Cazeneuve or El Khomri as candidates behind him.

God I hate the PS.

What you described is an opposition on politics, not ideology, on that level, beside the EU and maybe foreign affairs, Mélenchon and Hamon are practically on the same level.
And we could argue that Hamon vote for a motion of non-confidence against the Valls' government. (And after gets outraged when Valls doesn't want to support him)

[Tirnam]

Valls will vote for Macron

[Tirnam]

That's what the right hopes for. For myself, I can't see how that can happen.

Tracking polls update

OpinonWay
Le Pen: 25% (-1)
Macron: 25% (+1)
Fillon: 20% (=)
Mélenchon: 15% (+1)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 64% (+2), Le Pen 36%

Ifop
Macron: 26% (+0.5)
Le Pen: 25.5% (+0.5)
Fillon: 17.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 14% (=)
Hamon: 10% (-0.5)

Second round: Macron 60% (=), Le Pen 40%

Elabe poll
Macron: 25.5% (-0.5 since last week)
Le Pen: 24% (-0.5)
Fillon: 18%
Mélenchon: 15% (+1.5)
Hamon: 10% (-1.5)

Second round: Macron 63% (-1), Le Pen 37%

[Tirnam]

macron not being in the top 2 would need to be the biggest polling error since....does anyone know?

Ever. I mean, ever. Brexit led some polls before the vote and Trump had a small shot at winning. Every poll from mid February onward would be wrong.

Well in France, in the end of March 2002, Jospin was at 21%, when Le Pen and Laguiller were both at 10%.

[Tirnam]

I still think the Right has a majority in France, and that Le Pen is being slightly underpolled, based on FranceInfo, that well known FN radio station, saying there is evidence of voters turning down pollsters. Two factors that weigh against Macron.

Also, I recall the figures showing Macron had the most uncertain voters.

So is there any chance that Macron wins the presidency but the right somehow manages to win a majority in parliament? Would it lead to a new cohabitation? It's probably not going to happen, the legislative elections are going to be in Macron's honeymoon and people probably will rally behind him, but on the other hand his party doesn't have the same party machine as LR or PS.

I think its distinctly possible but that Macron will try to break up the two machines first.

FranceInfo a FN radio? And you mean this article?
It's very hard to find any real evidence of a polling error in this article just some basic suspicions.
Practically all the polls show the same level for every candidate, the same trends. If there was a deep problem with the polls I don't think that a such consensus would exist.
Also, the same methodologies were used for the 2015 elections, in those elections FN underperformed the polls.

And now the certainty of the Macron's vote is up: 62% in IFOP (better than Mélenchon and Hamon), also 62% in the Elabe poll (same as Mélenchon, higher than Hamon)

[Tirnam]

Last week of polling for Fillon had him just a few points ahead of  Juppe and Sarkozy, and the final result had him well ahead of them. Unless he gained massive momentum due to his electability, there is just one example of the French pollsters underpolling in the Right.

But yes, Fillon had a massive momentum in the last days of the campaign.
- Ipsos had him gaining 18 points in one month
- Ifop in its last poll had a 7 points gain for Fillon in just 3 days.

And also we were in the primary, with a short campaign. And of course it's easier for a right-wing voter to change his minds between right-wing candidates, than it's between a right-wing, centrist, far-right, left-wing, ... candidate

[Tirnam]

Tracking polls, quite stable.

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 25% (=)
Macron: 25% (=)
Fillon: 20% (=)
Mélenchon: 15% (=)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 64% (=), Le Pen 36%

Ifop
Macron: 26% (=)
Le Pen: 25.5% (=)
Fillon: 17.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 14.5% (+0.5)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 60% (=), Le Pen 40%

Kantar-Sofres, popularity Among the candidates
1- Mélenchon: 47% (+19)
2- Macron: 41% (+1)
3- Hamon: 36% (+6)
4- Le Pen: 24% (-1)
5- Fillon: 18% (-8)

Outside Juppé (4th, 28%), no right-wing leader in the top 15.

[Tirnam]

Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity?

Maybe, but we won't know. French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll.

[Tirnam]

Probably when someone is within the margin of error to be in the runoff.

[Tirnam]

they should probably stop publishing Fillon v. Le Pen polls then.

Well, I believe that a majority of pollsters publish only Macron-Le Pen polls now.

Has anyone polled a Len Pen-Melenchon second round, out of curiosity?

Maybe, but we won't know. French laws forbid to publish unrealistic runoff poll.

How could you have a law against polling an "unrealistic run-off"? Aren't polling companies free to pose any question they want?

They can pose any question they want, in fact Hamon insists that polls show him ahead of Le Pen in a runoff, but they can't publish them.
The law said that a second round poll must be published with a first round poll (so the second round poll has to be coherent with the first round poll).
Polls are "supervised" by an independent commission, which has constantly ruled against the publication of unrealistic runoff poll.

[Tirnam]

Public warning by the commission. If the polling institute refuse to submit, the commission can decide to engage legal actions.

But the commission and the polling institutes work in cooperation, public warning are rare, and polling institutes follow the recommandations of the commission (as for example, you don't see any "unrealistic" runoff scenario)

[Tirnam]

Tracking polls

OpinionWay
Le Pen: 24% (-1)
Macron: 24% (-1)
Fillon: 19% (-1)
Mélenchon: 15% (=)
Hamon: 11% (+1)

Second round: Macron 63% (-1), Le Pen 37%

Ifop
Macron: 26% (=)
Le Pen: 25% (-0.5)
Fillon: 17.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 15% (+0.5)
Hamon: 10% (=)

Second round: Macron 60% (=), Le Pen 40%

Mélenchon comes really close of Fillon. I think it will be really difficult for Mélenchon to go beyond 15% but who knows ...