VA-GOV 2017: Utter Panic and Doom (General election: Nov 7th)

[The Other Castro]

At least we don't have to deal with Prez or VP speculation for Perriello now.

If he wins a congressional seat in 2018, he could be a dark horse for VP in 2020 or 2024.

No for 2020, and it's a pointless exercise to speculate on 2024 right now.

[The Other Castro]

Tom Perriello:
"Congratulations to @RalphNortham. Let's go win this thing—united. Let's take back the House and ensure VA remains a firewall against hate."

[The Other Castro]

Both Democrats were campaigning as progressives. This was not a Bernie vs. Hillary race.

[The Other Castro]

GOP race ends just outside the margin needed to avoid a recount challenge from Stewart.

[The Other Castro]

Oof, sweating like a dog that one.

[The Other Castro]

Fmr Sen. John Warner (R) endorses Gillespie, after previously endorsing Mark Warner against Gillespie in 2014.

https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/910241273566646272

[The Other Castro]

Here's the thing about Trumpism. It's bigger than just Trump, and Trump cannot guide where it goes and how it works. He couldn't use it to help Strange, and he can't use it to help out Gillespie. It is a wild force that can be utilized by certain people under the proper conditions, but not controlled or shaped by the individual.

[The Other Castro]

Politico article on why the polling is all over the place: Random Digit Dial vs. Voter File polls

The biggest outliers are Quinnipiac (N+17) and Hampton (G+8), and both use RDD. When you take those out, the range is a much tighter G+1 to N+7, which is more in line with the kind of spread you would see in a race with a modest Northam lead (and what is much more in line with expectations).

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/31/virginia-governors-polling-northam-gillespie-244362

[The Other Castro]

Good news: Not only will we be getting exit polls for VA and NJ Gov, but we will also be getting a 2nd set of experimental exit polls from Fox News.

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It seems a little strange, but I think it's a good thing to have multiple types, and maybe it could work.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/11/02/fox-news-is-trying-to-reinvent-the-exit-poll-the-survey-strategy-involves-people-who-dont-vote/?utm_term=.b2c8f44d4f0d

[The Other Castro]

0ptimus/Firehouse, Trafalgar, and the Polling Company I believe are all Republican pollsters. If you included the 5 most recent nonpartisan polls in the average, you would get:

Rasmussen - Tie
Gravis - N+5
Roanoke - Tie
Suffolk - N+4
WashPost/Schar - N+5

Average - N+2.8

[The Other Castro]

0ptimus/Firehouse, Trafalgar, and the Polling Company I believe are all Republican pollsters. If you included the 5 most recent nonpartisan polls in the average, you would get:

Rasmussen - Tie
Gravis - N+5
Roanoke - Tie
Suffolk - N+4
WashPost/Schar - N+5

Average - N+2.8

Washington Post poll is junk they endorsed northam is a partisan poll.

Well if you removed that poll, the most recent one before that is Quinnipiac's N+17, bringing the average to N+5.2. Take your pick.

[The Other Castro]

I feel like the Northam decline is being a little overhyped nationally in relation to what may actually be the effect in Virginia. I still expect Northam to win by a few points, but I can't say that I'm not at least nervous now.

[The Other Castro]

As a preface to this post about early voting, I'll just add that I think this data should not be used heavily for predictive purposes, but that we shouldn't ignore it. It's useful info, and it's out there.

Michael McDonald from Elect Project points out some interesting early vote numbers regarding a Latino area:

Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject  49m49 minutes ago
Replying to @ElectProject
I find this the most fascinating stat of Virginia's early vote. Latinos getting woke would be an election game changer

Michael McDonald‏ @ElectProject  1h1 hour ago
Manassas City (2017 is 223% of the 2013 early vote) and Manassas Park (205%), localities with a significant Latino community, have the largest percent increases of any Virginia localities relative to 2013

He also said in some other tweets that he guesses the early voting is 7% of the total vote, and doesn't contradict the polling showing a small Northam lead.