AZ-SEN Class 1: Kelli or not-Kelli?

[The Other Castro]

Flake tweets his support for one of his Democratic opponents, who is Muslim and is being harassed.

Jeff Flake @JeffFlake
Hang in there @deedra2018. Sorry you have to put up with this. Lots of wonderful people across AZ. You'll find them.

https://twitter.com/jeffflake/status/887490249013825536

[The Other Castro]

Kyrsten Sinema is leaning towards running.

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https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/656154?unlock=OIF8WP7IRDLUSJVP

[The Other Castro]

Top Trump donor Robert Mercer is giving $300,000 to Kelli Ward's Super PAC in an effort to take out Flake.

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http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/09/trump-jeff-flake-robert-mercer-kelli-ward-241454

[The Other Castro]

I would not bet on Sinema - but I would absolutely bet against Flake winning re-election if he even goes through with running again.

Odds of winning the GOP primary: 62%
Odds of being reelected: 52%

https://www.predictit.org/Contract/7344/Will-Jeff-Flake-win-the-2018-Arizona-Republican-Senate-primary#data
https://www.predictit.org/Contract/7345/Will-Jeff-Flake-be-re-elected-to-the-US-Senate-in-Arizona-in-2018#data

[The Other Castro]

Cook Political Report: Toss-Up.

http://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/arizona-senate/arizona-senate-sinemas-candidacy-puts-race-toss

[The Other Castro]

Here are the results of my GCS poll:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bynnt69uB-jIX2NUd290ZENHUVE/view?usp=sharing

As always, I cut, codified, weighted and analyzed the raw data using my own methodology, so I do hope this is more accurate and respectable than a run-of-the-mill GCS poll.

Caveat is that no undecided option was presented to respondents due to lack of space.

Very professional looking!

[The Other Castro]

I’d keep an eye on Jeff DeWit.

[The Other Castro]

Schweikert doesn't sound like he's running.

Mike DeBonis‏ @mikedebonis
SCHWEIKERT plays down potential for Senate run. 'I'm not sure I have the burn, the passion,' he says.

Mike DeBonis @mikedebonis
Replying to @mikedebonis
Says AZ GOP delegation will be meeting tomorrow to have "family conversation" about the race.

https://twitter.com/mikedebonis/status/923250973937750021

[The Other Castro]

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lolwut

[The Other Castro]

Oooo that would be surprising...and probably a bad move on her part. The McCain seat could be hers, but going for Flake's is risky.

[The Other Castro]

Paul Gosar now back to considering a run for Senate.

Bridget Bowman‏ @bridgetbhc
Gosar tells reporters he’s a considering Senate run. On McSally, he said, “She had to make a decision...good for her.” #AZSen @rollcall
1:43 PM - 7 Nov 2017

https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/927969686431649798

[The Other Castro]

All McSally had to do to get a Senate seat was literally nothing. Congrats, McSally.