KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[VPH]

La Turner seems like the embodiment of the "ladder climber" attack.

I almost respect the guy for how shameless he is. If he gets into the Senate in 2021, he could easily be reelected in the Senate for ten terms.

LaTurner is slimy and overly ambitious but represents the Republican trend of his region. His campaign co-chair is Ivan Crossland. That name doesn't say much outside of SE Kansas, but in Southeast Kansas, Crossland Construction is one of the big funders of right-leaning Republicans. Lots of Democratic activists blame the region's especially quick trend away from Democrats on Crossland money. Hell, it probably made a difference in Rep. Adam Lusker's defeat in Frontenac.

[VPH]

Brent Welder posted a poll on Facebook asking whether Democrats want a "progressive" or a "corporate centrist". Sounds to me like he wants to run. I like Brent on a personal level; he and his wife are wonderful people but he is absolutely not my preferred candidate for US Senate. Run for State House or State Senate maybe...

[VPH]

I like Boyda on the issues, but she's continuing the anti-DC thing that cost her the Congressional race in 2008 when she refused national aid. Maybe it has more traction these days in the era of grassroots campaigns, but I don't know if it's the most prudent decision.

[VPH]

Grissom is a non-factor. Time for Plan B if you’re Kansas Dems. 

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article234072672.html

"Grissom, a Democrat, correctly says he left the U.S. attorney job before the cover-up began, and was not a part of the contempt finding by Judge Robinson. He isn’t mentioned in her ruling."

[VPH]

Has Stephanie Clayton showed any interest/been recruited? She is the other State Rep from Johnson County who changed her party affiliation after the 2018 election. A few colleagues with deeper Kansas experience have mentioned Monica Murnan, Cindy Holscher, and Eileen Horn as some of their favorites.

Just from following her over the years, I don't think Clayton would do well in a statewide race. Holscher is already running for a seat in the Kansas Senate. Barbara Bollier is probably the more realistic option of the recent party flippers and she even met with Schumer recently, so might be open to it.

Bollier has been mentioned numerous times, and if Grissom falters, I can see her jumping in and having that JoCo base behind her. I don't know if JoCo is the right profile for a statewide victory though. I keep on hearing that Manhattan Mayor Usha Reddi is preparing to run. She has a compelling (and tragic) story and experience running a midsize college town in a swingy county in the middle of the state. Also, she's a teacher, which with all the recent hubbub around education issues in Kansas is helpful.
https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article233019672.html

[VPH]

Why is Boyda out? Her name recognition and moderate image would have been a strong selling point in a district that has veered hard right since the 1990s.

Boyda dropped out because Bollier is running in the centrist lane and can outraise her by quite a bit. She's also starting a nonprofit to bring people together, so I guess she saw opportunity to get involved elsewhere.

[VPH]

And Barry Grissom just dropped out. Looks like Bollier is clearing the field.
https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1184862649324134400

[VPH]

Kansas hasn't changed, it remains a state where a majority of voters default to the Republican candidate but a larger than average number of those voters are highly persuadable to Democrats under favorable conditions.

Right, and the evidence suggests that most Kansans are more persuadable on a state level than a federal level.

[VPH]

Wonder if Hamilton hurts Marshall more because while his tone is more Kobach-like, he's not Kris.

[VPH]

Wonder if Hamilton hurts Marshall more because while his tone is more Kobach-like, he's not Kris.

Guess I had it backwards