Landslides

[NHLiberal]

With Shaheen, I think she'll lose Rockingham.

Agreed. Since I think Shaheen's victory will be by about the same amount as Hassan's 2012 victory (in which Hassan won every county), it wouldn't be impossible for Shaheen to do the same, but Hassan is from Rockingham County and Brown is "from" Rockingham County as well as a better fit for that area (wealthy, fiscally conservative) than her 2012 opponent, Lamontagne (a so-con). In 2008 Shaheen lost Rockingham, Belknap, and Carroll, when she won 51-45 statewide. She almost certainly won't lose Carroll, though it's possible she also loses Belknap (which was 51.85% Romney, as opposed to Rockingham which was 51.59% Romney). The rest of the counties are safe Shaheen.

[NHLiberal]

And for Sasse, he'll lose Thurston for sure and maybe Douglas and/or Lancaster.

Johanns won both Thurston and Douglas in the Obama year.

I don't even know why Warner is being considered here, he would have to win Virginia with over 70% to win every county/city.

Warner won all but four counties in 2008.
With a strengthened Sarvis it is not utterly out of question that Warner wins each county (which is still rather unlikely).

1. Johanns was a different candidate and the D ended up winning some rural counties. We'll see how this race turns out to be in the end. I would think Native American vote would go heavily dem in most instances. Lancaster and Douglas as I said are maybees.

2. For one thing, Warner will not perform nearly as well as he did in 2008. He probably will not get more than 59% this time around. Even if he did perform as well as he did in 2008, as Never mentioned, counties in the southwest have trended significantly to the right and some would inevitably be Gillespie counties anyway.

I think Warner could narrowly exceed 60%, but there's not a chance in hell he wins every county.