KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[Pandaguineapig]

If she couldn't win in a seat well to the left of the state in a historically Democratic year what makes her think she can win statewide with Trump at the top of the ticket?

[Pandaguineapig]

If she couldn't win in a seat well to the left of the state in a historically Democratic year what makes her think she can win statewide with Trump at the top of the ticket?

That money from idiot donors bruh. Just write off all your expenses/bar tabs to the campaign and life is great

She'll definitely pull donations from resistance idiots that could go to actual competitive races in North Carolina and Colorado

[Pandaguineapig]

If she couldn't win in a seat well to the left of the state in a historically Democratic year what makes her think she can win statewide with Trump at the top of the ticket?

That money from idiot donors bruh. Just write off all your expenses/bar tabs to the campaign and life is great

She'll definitely pull donations from resistance idiots that could go to actual competitive races in North Carolina and Colorado

Colorado probably won't be competitive.

The denocrat will most likely win, but I'm guessing the race will still be within 5 pts

[Pandaguineapig]

Nate Silver thinks McGrath has a shot because of approval ratings and his status as a party leader. This is his job and he still hasn't learned from past elections.

Nate Silver is great at models and numbers but is Bill Kristol level terrible as a pundit

[Pandaguineapig]

To those complaining that the Dems will waste money here, I think she will ends up with the opposite problem - barely any money at all and cannot run a legitimate campaign. The dem base is educated and cares about winning, and is not afraid to cruelly throw candidates under the bus. Their donations are political investments after all. When the NYT found candidates losing by significant margins in a single poll, they lost their shine. I am reminded of TX23, TX31, and MN08 - all MOE races in the end, but all abandoned by the activist base first and then the donors when one data point came up not in their favor.

Lol no, these are the same people who lit their money on fire for O'Rourke and Heitkamp

[Pandaguineapig]

To those complaining that the Dems will waste money here, I think she will ends up with the opposite problem - barely any money at all and cannot run a legitimate campaign. The dem base is educated and cares about winning, and is not afraid to cruelly throw candidates under the bus. Their donations are political investments after all. When the NYT found candidates losing by significant margins in a single poll, they lost their shine. I am reminded of TX23, TX31, and MN08 - all MOE races in the end, but all abandoned by the activist base first and then the donors when one data point came up not in their favor.

Lol no, these are the same people who lit their money on fire for O'Rourke and Heitkamp

ND and TN were a waste of money, but was TX? Yeah it was excessive, but O’Rourke came closer to winning than 3 of the 4 Democratic Senators that lost did. And he gave us a glimpse as to how a Democrat can win statewide sometime in the next decade when there previously wasn’t a template to use. Literally just add five points to Beto’s margins in the cities and suburbs and that’s a blue Texas. And his downballot coattails were huge in the legislature and at the county level.

Yes, but the countless millions raised went well beyond the point of diminishing returns

[Pandaguineapig]

Atlas consensus here is so dumb and tiresome. Yes, it's an uphill race, but the whole map is uphill! Because of the nature of the map, you have to make a serious effort to pick up seats in Montana, and Texas, and Kansas, all of which are going to be extraordinarily difficult. At least in this one you've got a good candidate who is fundraising well and will run a competitive election — absolute malpractice to write it off as safe R now.

The problem for Democrats is that this race won't be competitive and will siphon money from left-wing idiots that could go to actual races

[Pandaguineapig]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HolmesJosh/status/1149075028601954304

This woman really isn't ready for prime-time

[Pandaguineapig]

I mean its been pointed out that McGrath is an inferior candidate to ALG in every metric, yet left wing idiots still pumped money into her campaign

[Pandaguineapig]

there's a good chance that McConnell's margin is closer to his 2002 race at this point, probably the worst first 48 hours for a hyped senate recruit in recent memory