US House Redistricting: California

[Lunar]

Democrats shouldn't necessarily be so confident in their chances. Even if Gallegly, Dreier, Miller, and Bilbray lose, there is a decent chance that Loretta Sanchez's district could go Republican, along with those of Harman, Capps, and the new district containing Lakewood and Paramount.

The 2012 year will probably have better Hispanic turnout than 2010, fwiw.

It seems like the Dems have a lot more to smile about here, even if there are some risks of the GOP picking a couple off.

[Lunar]

I guess, I think that's an overly simplistic way of looking at things.

Here in New York, someone could have made a similar argument in 2010 saying something like "Yeah, but with Andrew Cuomo's giant popularity and a nutjob of a Republican nominee dragging down the ticket and poisoning the Republican brand, Republicans would be lucky to do well at all"

Although the statewide races were indeed huge victories for the Democrats, as predicted in this rhetorical hypothetical, they lost more Congressional seats than any other state in the whole country.