Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Lunar]

I heavily disagree with that assessment.  Terry is not the most unelectable candidate.  He is far more politically talented than Moran, who has run, let's face it, a loser campaign ran by a veteran who is an expert in losing competitive races, and Terry will have access to ten times as much money.  Terry's campaign has been perfect to a T thus far, even if I personally detest him and would never vote for him to be my govenror I can admit that.  I suspect McDonnell most wants to face Moran.

Sure, if the election were limited to politicos, Terry would be toast.  But a large percentage of the electorate knows as little about him as they know about the other candidates.

[Lunar]

At this point I'll be surprised if it ends up being 200,000.

Really?  I'm expecting somewhere between 300,000-400,000.

Turnout that high would be a guaranteed McAuliffe victory. I would expect it to fall somewhere in between 150,000 and 250,000 (at the extreme high end).

I'd agree with that assessment.

I have no idea whether or not McAuliffe can drag out the extra hundred thow to the polls that he maybe needs.  Wouldn't surprise me, honestly.

[Lunar]

I'd argue that a higher turnout favors Deeds because more Independents and Republicans will have voted.

Something tells me Democratic turnout matters more...

[Lunar]

I don't know if higher turnout necessarily means that a higher percentage of Independents and Republicans are voting in the Democratic primary anyhooo

[Lunar]

http://brianmoran.com/assets/2009/5/27/mackernegative.pdf

So much for Terry's pledge/promise to never go negative on a fellow Democrat

note the placement, Creigh comes first

[Lunar]

Creigh has a shot, certainly.  I wouldn't predict his win yet, but it's be mildly surprising if he didn't get at least second place with his recent momentum.

I don't like Ben's numbers though, something about it feels fishy, I can't quite put my finger on what though.

[Lunar]

Damn, this election is occurring like on the f-'in 9nth or something?  Can anyone else believe the primaries are so soon?!  I'm not even going to be in Indonesia when I find out whether or not Terry gives us a [deleted].

[Lunar]

Wow, I can't believe this race is going to be possibly decided on the 9th.

I know if the current frontrunner wins the primary, I'll start a Democratic movement to ignore this race until 2011 haha.

I encourage every Virginian here not to back Moran's Titanic, he'll be lucky enough if he gets second.  Even if Moran were to win, he's run one of the more god-awful,eratic, and confusing campaigns I've seen in a while, and this isn't only the third or fourth Trippi campaign I've seen implode.  Wikipedia says he's been behind a lot more.

Just vote for Creigh.  At least you can pronounce his name hilariously "Craaaay Deaaaaaades"

[Lunar]

Well, talk to every Moran voter you know and try and convince them to vote their plan B (Creigh) just to deny Terry his primary win.  This isn't liberal versus moderate at this point in the race.  This is serious versus cereal.

I think it's pretty clear from momentum to fundraising to the WaPo endorsement that Moran has over a 50% chance of ending up in third place now.

I don't want to have to root for Bob.

[Lunar]

Forget November, how about next week?  Moran's campaign has stereotypically imploded, like a number of Trippi's campaigns. 

This is pretty much a Creigh vs. Terry race now.  Anyone wish to dispute that, I'm all ears.

[Lunar]

Wow, I can't believe this race is going to be possibly decided on the 9th.

I know if the current frontrunner wins the primary, I'll start a Democratic movement to ignore this race until 2011 haha.

I encourage every Virginian here not to back Moran's Titanic, he'll be lucky enough if he gets second.  Even if Moran were to win, he's run one of the more god-awful,eratic, and confusing campaigns I've seen in a while, and this isn't only the third or fourth Trippi campaign I've seen implode.  Wikipedia says he's been behind a lot more.

Just vote for Creigh.  At least you can pronounce his name hilariously "Craaaay Deaaaaaades"

It's actually pronounced "Cree", not "Cray". No, I don't know why.

If he puts on his Southern accent it ain't

[Lunar]

Not hard to find them Meeker,

32BJ of the Services Employees International Union (SEIU)
American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME)
Arlington Coalition of Police Union
Local 1 of Virginia, Maryland, and DC of the International Union of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers
The International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, Iron Ship Builders, Blacksmiths, Forgers and Helpers
Virginia Professional Firefighters (VPFF)


http://www.terrymcauliffe.com/endorsements

You're so dumb that must be why you're a Terry buttbuddy OMGLOL

[Lunar]

Creigh looks like he has a few unions in here along with people with such names as "Butch" and "Moose"

http://www.deedsforvirginia.com/endorsements

Moran has:

Alexandria Fire Fighters Local 2141
City of Fairfax Professional Fire Fighters and Paramedics Local 2702
Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority Fire Fighters Association, Local 3217
IATSE Local #22

[Lunar]

Terry should just convince one of his friends to write him a $80 million dollar check.

That'd be fun

[Lunar]

ok, I think we all get it now

When's the primary again?

Creigh Deeds will be nominated on June 9.

I'd still bet that Moran comes in second.

My prediction:

Deeds: 37%
McAuliffe: 34%
Moran: 29%

It's good to be optimistic, but do you really think he has a shot?

Yes, I absolutely do.

I'd still bet that Moran comes in second.

My prediction:

Deeds: 37%
McAuliffe: 34%
Moran: 29%

2002 is an excellent comparison.  Expect the map to look a lot like that; Terry will win the more liberal areas, but it won't be enough to overcome Deeds everywhere else.

Terry should just convince one of his friends to write him a $80 million dollar check.

That'd be fun

If he asks his friends to do that after Deeds wins the nomination, I'll be impressed.

Low enough turnout and Creigh might have an outside chance of winning this thing.

  Creigh Deeds winning the primary will be one of the proudest moments in my recent memory.

[Lunar]

Well,  it was commissioned by  WJLA-TV, based out of Arlington.  Maybe they just wanted to find out how people in their Virginian media market voted so they knew how to slant the news

kinda small sample size too, right?

On the face of things, it's ok...2000 polled, 570 likely voters... but that only means, what, 350 or so for the Democratic primary?  Ish?  Even that might be sketch, I'm not sure if more than 25% of total adults are really going to turn out for an off-year primary

Seems like an awk poll overall.

[Lunar]

Get ready for Ben peeing his pants.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/06/02/virginia_race_is_now_a_toss_up.html

Deeds is winning in a high-turnout poll?  Interesting.

[Lunar]

MAYBE YOU DIDN'T SEE THIS POST THEN WHEN HE DENIED DEEDS HAD A CHANCE:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=87990.msg2015913#msg2015913

maybe you should cut your bite, read the insight, cut your sarcasm and don't have a spasm as you stare across that analytical chasm

That's all I got.

[Lunar]

Dude, you've been about the same as Winfield on threads about Romney.  It's been a bit heavy.

[Lunar]

wow, a released internal poll with no additional information (sample size, date conducted) comes out showing the candidate that conducted it ahead that sort of blunts the recent slate of bad polling that's come out against said candidate, I can hardly believe it

[Lunar]

Ben...you said you'd tone it down?


Terry's performing better among people who don't own a gun as well.  Best not to stare too hard at a crosstabs of a poll that in total contains 517 people.

[Lunar]

The NRA endorsed Deeds over McDonnell in the Attorney General's race in 2005, where Deeds lost a squeaker < 400 votes.  Would be interesting if they did it again, I suspect not.

[Lunar]

Let's hope PPP is right.

                                                                         Mo    Mc    Craaaaaaaaaay Daaaeds
Public Policy Polling   June 2, 2009   +/- 4.1%   22%   24%   27%
Public Policy Polling   May 22, 2009  +/- 3.9%   20%   29%   20%
Public Policy Polling   May 5, 2009    +/- 4.1%   20%   30%   14%
Public Policy Polling   Marc 31, 2009 +/- 3.6%   22%   19%   15%
Public Policy Polling   March 3, 2009 +/- 3.9%   19%   21%   14%
Public Policy Polling   Febru 3, 2009   +/- 3.2%  18%   18%   11%

[Lunar]

When Moran wins I am going to laugh in all of you guys's faces.  We need someone who has proven results in the Governor's mansion and Moran is that man.

Are you joking?

Moran's campaign has gone hard-negative in its advertising lately because it's in a state of desperation

[Lunar]

Politico...err... POLITICO, has the picture-headline story on Moran today


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23302.html


He's taking on Deeds on gay rights and gun control now.


Brian Moran if he wins, will be more unelectable than Terry in the general.