Virginia 2009 Megathread

[Lunar]

the YouTube video in the article shows Deeds fairly fumbling....  I'll watch a bit before I go to sleep

I think the positions one advocates in this little-watched debate have a far more of an impact for oppo research in the general than shifting momentum to oneself...

[Lunar]

I can't figure out Terry.

By that, I mean his depth.  He seems to have the best grasp of the issues.  But he also seems to have the best grasp about how to sell these issues to someone ignorant on the race.  Does that indicate that he's intelligent?  Could that intelligence translate into governance?  He's correcting the interviewer on dates and facts, he certainly seems to have a better memory of any candidate I've seen, or at least the one who's the most interested in flouting it...he's at least the most unquestionably fast-talking one I've seen.

I suspect not he'll have difficulties implementing his ideas.  One example, he has to work with the legislature, who will be far less be willing to buy his used cars.  He cites his ability to create jobs that other candidate cannot by convincing overseas companies to invest in Virgnia...through working the state legislature.

mmmm

more later

[Lunar]

Deeds is a bit painful to watch.  I can see his mind clicking at a high speed, but the words don't come out at the proper speed.  I remember being in high school debate in seven years ago, and being like that.  The ideas would be there when I started, but I would still lose more than I won as they came out poorly.


these dudes that Politico has partnered with have asked pretty good questions.

The two ones they continue to ask are:

1) How are you going to improve infrastructure in Northern Virginia and [emphasis] how you're going to pay for it
2) How would you respond if President Barack Obama *personally* called you and asked you to store Guantanamo detainees in Virginia?


Maybe they're not pretty good questions so much as questions that a Democratic primary candidate can't honestly answer.

[Lunar]

Suffolk and R2k both have polls out today showing Deeds ahead.

Hopefully Moran doesn't take everyone else down with him, even if his hard-negative stuff works and he wins the nomination...

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I must say, I'm massively disappointed in Governor Schweitzer, head of the Democrat's Governors Association or whatever, endorsing Terry today.  Super lame, especially considering that Schweitzer has more in common ideologically with a rural Democrat like Deeds.

I really liked Schweitzer, now I'm neutral

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It's obvious, ain't it?  Terry has hella national connections and Schweitzer is ambitious.  Terry's backing could jumpstart a presidential campaign from a nobody to a second-tier candidate overnight

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http://twitter.com/CreighDeeds

"Well I guess Terry has a leg up in the Montana precincts"

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I've already accused him of being a Deeds version of winfield a page or two back myself, but in his defense, it seems like sort of a betrayal of both Schweitzer's job as DGA (getting Democratic governors elected) and Schweitzer's pro-gun, folksy beliefs in order to score personal political points.  My opinion of Rendell was unaffected (Rendell endorsed Terry simultaneously with Schweitzer) because he was already a Clinton hack who has a lot in common with Terry both politically and ideologically.  

If Obama endorsed Roland Burris for reelection, I'd be upset because he is supposed to be better than that and it doesn't make sense in the larger scheme of things either, as the guy would  be toast in the general election.

[Lunar]

Ironic because:  What is the RGA?

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the url function was created for a reason

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I don't know why people want Moran to win.  If he wins it's only because he ran enough negative ads that he deteriorated his opponents' images more than "going negative" destroyed his own.

He's run a horrible campaign and politically he's not the type of candidate in the mold of Warner, Kaine, and Wilder who is going to be able to beat McDonnell.  Deeds is a bit fumbling, but he's smart and authentic.  Even if he's 15%-40% more bluedoggy than desirable or what have you, he'll have probably a four to five times better chance at beating Bob in November.

Off-year elections in purple states are not about putting forward the most liberal candidate possible.

[Lunar]

Most elections are about putting forth the most liberal candidate for me. I vote based on ideology 90% of the time. I don't usually vote based on "who has the best shot at beating so and so" scenarios. It's just too depressing and dull.

So you don't think it's important to nominate good candidates?  It doesn't matter if someone is a horrible campaigner who will likely lose?

Club for Growth thinks like that

[Lunar]

Ah, ok.  Maybe he's doing great.

From my end, I think it's clear he got immediately discombulated once Terry got into the race, didn't put up very good fundraising numbers, and is focused more on tearing his opponents down than propping himself up (which may work, but now people don't like you and you gotta win a second election).

I could go on about specific mistakes he's making, but Joe Trippi has dropped the ball yet again.

[Lunar]

Moran's problem is that he's concentrating solely on winning in Northern Virginia. That's been his strategy all along, since in a two-man race with a guy from the middle of nowhere, it's a good way to win, but with McAuliffe splitting the NoVa vote, not so much. You're right that Moran was flustered by McAuliffe's entry in the race -- it seems like he's never been able to figure out how to run a three-way race, since he was expecting to have the nomination handed to him, so he just went negative, negative, negative.

Look at Joe Trippi's success rate anyhow.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Trippi

[Lunar]

DEEDS 99.901%
MORAN 0.01% LOL NoVA WILL HAVE SOME HOLDOUTS
TERRY -0.001 OOPS HE WROTE "NOT ME" ON HIS *OWN* BALLOT

[Lunar]

Isn't PPP assuming a high turnout too?  Like I seem to remember them guessing at something like 300k-400k while the WaPo is estimating 200kish.

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That's not necessarily how momentum works.

Terry has the best field organization, so this race is still unpredictable.

[Lunar]

Assuming his organization is focused on absentees.


Ben, you said you'd cut back on trying to mimic Winfield.

[Lunar]

Low enough turnout and Creigh might have an outside chance of winning this thing.

  Creigh Deeds winning the primary will be one of the proudest moments in my recent memory.

When's the primary again?

Creigh Deeds will be nominated on June 9.

Anyway,

Well, when multiple people who are rooting for the same guy as you are finding it coming off way too heavy, it's a good sign to cut back.  I'm not the only person to reference you to Winfield lately.  It's not really working with numbers to go "omg that poll shows Terry winning churchgoers it's WRONG!!"


Anyway, where is Deed's momentum coming from?  NoVa undecideds?

[Lunar]

Well, I'm skeptical of how many people read the WaPo's endorsement page, but Deeds is certainly not sparing any expenses to run ads reminding people of the endorsement in the expensive DC media market.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-Ra-kd7uk

[Lunar]

As a Republican, I want McAuliffe to win.  In the end, though, I think Creigh Deeds will win the nomination.  He seems to have all of the momentum at this point, and that matters a lot.

"momentum" matters a hell of a lot more when it comes to a presidential primary with a high amount of news volume and a high number of candidates since it determines who the media will cover and treat seriously as well as driving voters away from losers towards their plan B or C choices when confronted with physical losses.  I imagine that this effect would be muted for a low-profile off-year neck-n-neck VA Gov primary.

It matters, but maybe less though that we would think, at least in my opinion

[Lunar]

Wow.

PPP would have to be pretty far off for anyone but Deeds to win now.

[Lunar]

Wow.  This is pretty fantastic, to say the least.  I don't see how Deeds loses at this point.

Boast not thyself of to morrow; for thou knowest not what a day may bring forth.

-Proverbs 27:1

"And God said, "Behold, I have given you every plant yielding seed which is upon the face of all the earth, and every tree with seed in its fruit; you shall have them for food."
—Genesis 1:29

[Lunar]

all tree campaigns are hella focusing on black churches right now, scroll down this list of stories, at least half of them are about this:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/

i'm not joking, look at this:



yes, that's correct

[Lunar]

Glad to see Deeds is surging right when it counts most...

A well-run campaign with a likable candidate is more important than ideology, geography, or money. 

And, of course, while the "electability" argument may not work openly, it does work in the backroom to earn various kinds of support.


I didn't expect Deeds to be surging this much.  His latest advertising blitz must be doing its job.