Connie Mack IV is my congressman and is wildly popular in District 14 -- he wins with 60-65 percent of the vote. But there is no way he would challenge Jeb if former Gov. Bush decides to run. That would be political suicide.
It's possible though that he and Bush are playing chicken with one another to formally declare. If Mack declares first in an attempt to force out Bush, he might be committed if Bush calls him out.
I wouldn't be so sure. Mack also has a great last name in Florida politics, and although it's older, at least Mack hasn't been trashed by a sitting president with god-awful approval ratings with the the same last name....
I think it'd be 70/30 odds in favor of Bush, but I think Mack would have a solid shot at it. It depends on whether Bush has been cultivating the connections he needs or not since he exited office...
*I have no idea about Florida politics, but I'm just a bit skeptical everything that assumes anything