Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Podgy the Bear]

It's now 53-47 with remaining vote from the metro Atlanta counties.  Cobb is very close, and Barrow may end up winning there, though barely.  The total voter dropoff from last month is about 60 percent.

Statewide, it will probably finish at 52-48, which is much better than I thought.  Still, Barrow's south Atlanta performance was quite poor, especially in the overall vote (example, Clayton gave over 80000 votes in November to the Democrats, down to 25000 tonight; Henry from 56000 to 18000).  It would have been even closer if there was a better turnout in these sizable counties.

[Podgy the Bear]

Just another 18,000 votes, and Stacey Abrams would have made the runoff.  And I believe we would have been talking about another result tonight.  It would have been supercharged on both sides, but I would have liked our odds.

As Scarlett O'Hara said, "Tomorrow is another day...time to move on to fight for 2020..."

[Podgy the Bear]

For the Democrats to even have a chance in 2020 to pick up the Senate seat. they need to do the following:

1) Pick the consensus candidate early (which has happened over the last few years because available Democrats have been few and far between).  We don't need a protracted primary fight--which I fear may happen in the presidential race.  Teresa Tomlinson comes with excellent credentials and is very eloquent when I have seen her on television.

2) Get the Abrams voting bloc in metro Atlanta to come out (and especially south metro--where they didn't do so in the Barrow runoff).  And this means that Abrams has to be active and not sit this out (I don't think she would do this).

3) Have a strong presidential ticket to maximize #2 and have broad appeal to the statewide vote.  Even if Georgia stays Republican at the presidential level in 2020, there could be trickle down effects in the downballot races in favor of the Democrats (similar to what happened in 1996).

[Podgy the Bear]

For the Democrats to even have a chance in 2020 to pick up the Senate seat. they need to do the following:

1) Pick the consensus candidate early (which has happened over the last few years because available Democrats have been few and far between).  We don't need a protracted primary fight--which I fear may happen in the presidential race.  Teresa Tomlinson comes with excellent credentials and is very eloquent when I have seen her on television.

I dont believe this reason is actually that valid. Having no competition in a primary is much worse than having a brutal primary, for it airs out a candidate's dirty laundry. As an example, VA-05 had this problem on both sides, with it coming out during the campaign that Riggleman wrote Bigfoot fanfiction, and Cockburn sided with BDS on many issues. Now, lets take the opposite. To contrast, look at the GA-GOV primary. Many people wanted to clear the way for Abram's opponent, Stacy Adams, and many in the GADEM didnt want Abrams to run and disrupt the primary. But the deadly primary allowed Abrams to emerge, and also aired out the dirty laundry that was found out about Adams.

Same with the presidential primary. If we just allowed a candidate through with no primary fighting, say Joe Biden, and then all this information comes out and he falters, then keeping Joe safe from a challenge actually hurt the Ds, not helped them.

Primaries are safe areas for Democrats and Republicans, where an electorate of like minded thinkers can pick a candidate out of a field, and any problems can be aired out against an audience that doesnt despise your guts. By clearing a field, you have these issues bundled up until the general, when not just your party, but the whole electorate, are watching.

The difference between last year and next year's Senate race is that the Democrats will be taking on a fairly tough incumbent in David Perdue.  What you're proposing happened here in 2006 governor's race with a bruising primary fight between Mark Taylor and Cathy Cox--running against the incumbent Sonny Perdue.  Taylor barely won--too much bad blood between him and Cox (she didn't endorse him)--and he was slaughtered against Perdue in November.  And remember 2006 was a big Democratic year--everywhere except Georgia.

The Democratic Party statewide doesn't have the resources to have a protracted fight in the primaries to take on David Perdue.  It would otherwise be multiple candidates and then a prolonged runoff period.    It will have to be the 3 issues I brought up earlier for them to have a chance.

[Podgy the Bear]

Abrams is launching a “Thank You” tour in Albany on Monday (she launched her Gubernatorial campaign there). I’ve never heard of such a thing.... is she really about to go through with a Senate run?

she can't say no to DC, she's running

I guess she has the Guy Millner syndrome (check 1994, 1996, and 1998 in Georgia) of running for every upcoming election imaginable.

[Podgy the Bear]

At this time, Tomlinson would do better than Michelle Nunn did in 2014, but Perdue will be favored.  Probably a 52-47 vote.