LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Mr. Smith]

I dunno who wins overall, but JBE probably just misses the majority the first time around.

[Mr. Smith]

I usually like doing these the week before, but since I've been a bit busy and forgotten...

48% Edwards
29% Rispone
21% Abraham

No idea about run-off numbers, but the gut says Rispone wins.

[Mr. Smith]

Here we go!

[Mr. Smith]

Is there a counting bias towards the GOP or towards Dems?

Either way, this is definitely not looking so hot right now for Edwards.

[Mr. Smith]

Time to stick a fork in this one. Governor Rispone is a go

Bummer.

[Mr. Smith]

Time to stick a fork in this one. Governor Rispone is a go

Bummer.

Is this a joke?

Where's the joke? JBE hasn't improved in any way since 10 PM EST. Polarization is quite the drug.

Trump is not going to hold multiple rallies in Louisiana over the next month. He actually has other stuff he needs to do (like golf and watch FOX and Friends.

Why not? He loves rallies.

Not that he needs more than one or two perfectly placed ones, one right on the weekend or Monday right before ought do the trick. I mean just look at Bevin's miraculous recovery!

[Mr. Smith]

Remember the combined Republican vote in the 2015 jungle primary was 57%, and Vitter got 13% less of the vote than that.

This is not 2015 anymore, and Rispone doesn't have Vitter's baggage.

I expect Rispone to do better than Vitter but JBE is in a better starting position than he was in 2015 and did well, so I think he is the favorite in a competitive race. I don't think simply adding up the Republican vote is very predictive.

You don't have to, you can subtract a bit and Rispone still wins.

It just takes one, precisely placed rally, just before run-off day...and the base'll turn out in droves.


Also, where're the IndyRep and Bagel takes?

[Mr. Smith]

Intervals: <60%, 60-70%, and 70%+ (non-Atlas colors)

Total Republican: 696,399 (51.8%)
Total Democratic: 636,993 (47.4%)

If these are the results in November, it'd be disapointing but certainly a noble effort from the last Southern Republican governor.

Firstly, I think you mean Democratic.

Secondly, Roy Cooper and Ralph Northam still exist.

[Mr. Smith]

If Beshear Bevin can win in KY then Bel Edwards Vitter should be able to win in LA. Lean D R

This exact logic was applicable four years ago, and I said just as much...look what happened.

[Mr. Smith]

4 mins left.

[Mr. Smith]

Things like that happen when trends run ahead of conventional wisdom.
It's like 2010 when Arkansas Republicans didn't take the majority in the legislature because they left too many seats uncontested.

Yes and also because the Arkansas GOP didn't really have a bench to overtake the legislature and even as late as 2010 there were still entrenched legislative incumbents and many Arkansans had some local trust in Democrats.

Little did people know what would happen in the following cycles.

But anyway.. we may not be able to win Southern states federally but through suburbs we could do better with governorships.

Uh, Texas is shifting fast, Virginia is flipped, Georgia's going fast, and even NC is on the way.

Or are you telling me only Flawed-Duh!, Tennessee, and The Deep South count now?

[Mr. Smith]

Around three weeks before election day I decided on 51.5% Rispone, 48.5% JBE because I figured that Rispone would be able to consolidate the Abraham supporters, and persuade enough JBE-leaning Trump voters to balance out any increase in black turnout.

The day before the election I was more pessimistic due to reading reports of solid black turnout from "Souls to the Polls," as well as the fact that even Atlas Trump supporting friends like Lechasseur said they back JBE, and seeing Trump supporters being interviewed at rallies who unapologetically admit to voting JBE despite unapologetically supporting Trump.

Candidates like John Bel Edwards, Jon Tester, Joe Manchin, etc are beatable if the opposition campaigns are able to persuade enough Trump-voting "I'll go with the blue dog" voters into voting for the Republican candidate. I do think Trump could've done a better job in that regard rather than just blanketly calling them "Nancy Pelosi style liberals" - he hasn't put that much thought into these kinds of Democrats because they aren't high on his priority list of opponents to take down.  I also think that Republican opponents of these blue dogs (Rispone, Rosendale, Morrissey; even the ones who won like Braun, Hawley, Cramer) could all have done better if they came up with creative ways to deal with the "persuade blue dog Trump voters to abandon the Democrats etnirely" problem.

Show ads explaining the backstories of people who used to back "conservative Democrats" but have now seen the light of how awful the party has gotten. Instead of mindlessly calling them "liberals," use words like "swindler" or "trickster" or "fake moderate." Explain that those candidates don't deserve your vote for doing the bare minimum and that you'll do all the things that those Democrats have done that you approve of, and more.

This is also  veryapplicable in the Northeast w/ Democrats and Rockefeller Republicans where those like Phil Scott, Charlie Baker, and Chris Sununu keep getting elected and re-elected despite the rest of the ticket.