RINO Tom
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Posts: 17,074
Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52
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« on: January 31, 2017, 10:29:16 AM » |
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So there are only four states in the US that are majority rural, and two voted for Clinton and two voted for Trump? Obviously the GOP cleans up in the rural areas, but I believe this confirms my theory that they couldn't win a single state without a very large suburban base. Actual GOP coalitions in the states that they win likely involve doing all of the following (remember, the counties aren't an electoral college of their own ... you just have to win the popular vote in the state):
- 70% in the rural counties (not even close to winning yet)
- 60%+ in the exurban counties (I'd argue this is the most essential to GOP victories)
- 40-60% in more urban suburban counties (don't need to win them, though they do win a lot still, just need to get enough votes)
- 20-30% in cities (this likely pushes them over the top)
When you think about it, while the GOP obviously NEEDS rural voters, it is incredibly dumb to draw a clean urban/suburban vs. rural divide for the Democrats vs. the GOP ... Republicans would lose almost every state.
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