Clinton wins in an extremely stable race using the Obama 2012 “out-of-touch Republican” strategy. The map is the same as 2012 except Iowa and Ohio go for the GOP.
I know you’re a big believer that Trump was this uniquely well positioned candidate to beat Hillary, but Kasich would not have been seen as out of touch and would have held up better with suburban Republicans. I’ll actually predict he wins the exact same map plus New Hampshire and maybe Minnesota. While Trump fanned the flames of voters who thought the Democrats “left them” or whatever, Democrats did a plenty effective job of earning that impression, themselves. Hillary couldn’t run the “out of touch” campaign vs. anyone, lol, and Kasich wouldn’t provide the vote tradeoff Trump and Hillary had.