UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[parochial boy]

I'll turn on BBC for the exit poll. If it says Tory majority, I'm going to bed. If it says no overall majority, I'll go down the corner shop to get some cheap cans of cider and settle in for a long one.

MAKE PLANS TO GO TO BED!

STFU

NOW! NOW,  IT IS TO EARLY FOR YOU TO BE IN SUCH AN UGLY MOOD.

[parochial boy]

https://twitter.com/wandbc/status/1205140164311433217?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwca...
Putney...

[parochial boy]

Lol, RIP Britain

[parochial boy]

Not much to say about the results, other than I expected it (even a slightly larger Conservative majority).

Weird that turnout was just 67% and dropping compared with 2017.

You should probably never go with the stupid Election Day reports of „long lines“ ...

With significantly higher turnout there probably would have been a hung parliament again, because no suppressed Labour vote.

That’s not how things work ...

With a higher turnout, th Conservatives could have also won by an even bigger margin.

In recent years, former SD voters have started to vote Conservative, as they are no longer „workers“ anymore, but have moved into white-collar professions ...

Unlikely when you look at the seats which had the biggest turnout drops.

Indeed there is a pattern forming here:

2015, 2019 - voting levels fail to live up to the hype on the day, and the Tories win;

2010, 2017 - turnout is "higher than expected" and there is a "surprise" hung parliament.

Based on that sequence.......

Adding to that, where turnout actually rose Labour did well, Putney being the emblematic example. Whereas the real story in the North etc was less that loads of people suddenly decided to vote Conservative, but the Labour vote fell of a cliff - mostly because their voters stayed home.

[parochial boy]

And who said anything about surpressed? A pretty major part of the story here is what was suggested would happen actually did, Labour failed to convince their supporters to vote for them, hence lower turnout. It just doesn't necessarily mean that the pool of Conservative voters in those constituencies has grown as much as people seem to be suggesting.

[parochial boy]

Incidentally, and usual caveats about this sort of data, Ipsos Mori had the cross break for 18-24 year olds in 2010 as
Conservatives - 31%
Labour -  30%
Lib Dem - 30%

The same cohort now make up the bulk of this year's 25-34 year olds. So for them to swing (probably lots of Lib Dem deserters, and lots 2010 non-voters) to 55%-23% in favour of Labour this year suggests that something has happened over the last 10 years to radicalise them.

Same story with 2010's 25-34 year olds. That cohort has gone from a 5% Tory lead to a 15% Labour one. This isn't exactly people getting Conservative as they get older.

[parochial boy]

I can't help but think that ignoring non-voters really weakens the meaning of all that YouGov stuff

[parochial boy]

Bit off topic, but why are the Western Isles traditionally so much more Labour than the rest of the Highlands?