Phil, Moose, Ice, Soulty, et al...help...

[bullmoose88]

1.  If the economy stayed as is, Toomey (and I'm being conservative here) had an 80% chance of beating Specter in the primary.

2.  The reason is that the nature of the Republican primary electorate (as has been mentioned) has changed considerably since 2004.   Phil's right in that the conservative part of the party has always disliked Specter.  The problem for arlen was that side of the party has grown in relation to the total number of Republicans in the state.  (Perhaps some additions out in the West--not Specter types)  The other factor is that the Southeastern Moderate/Liberal Republicans are pretty much gone from the party...they had started to leave as early as the late 80s/early 90s and left in large numbers to vote in the Obama/Hillary contest.  This was particularly noticeable in Specter's traditional power base of Philadelphia, Bucks, Montco, Delaware and Chester counties. (SE PA)

3.  Specter was pretty certain to lose, this time, against Toomey against the GOP primary electorate (PA primaries are closed). Specter was down 12 or so points in most, though, polls. (Still he was pulling about 20-30% of polled republicans in those polls, so I can see a good deal of them voting for him in November as a democrat.  I'll be voting for him.)

Specter is the favorite (I'm assuming the Dems have or will sufficiently clear the field for him) against Toomey in a General election.  How big of a favorite is certainly debatable.  Toomey could theoretically win (though I wouldn't count on it) if the stimulus doesn't work.  But I can't see arlen losing even if the economy stays as is, I think Toomey would need more of a drop but thats just me.