Did the "FDR" Re-alignment really begin in 1928? (user search)
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  Did the "FDR" Re-alignment really begin in 1928? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Did the "FDR" Re-alignment really begin in 1928?  (Read 7031 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« on: April 20, 2017, 09:33:53 PM »

I dont think so as Smith lost half the southern states(FDR swept them ) , and other the Mass didnt really win that many states in New England.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,406


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2017, 06:58:57 PM »

I dont think so as Smith lost half the southern states(FDR swept them ) , and other the Mass didnt really win that many states in New England.

This is why I think it is better to categorize the realignments as:

1. 1860-1896

2. 1896-1952

3. 1952-2008

4. 2008-present

The patterns are:

1. Northern working class coalesces against slavery, becomes solidly Republican, North vs. South elections for a generation.

2.  Democrats finally break through with the Northern working class and Western commodity industries (small farmers, mining, logging, etc.).

3. Growth of suburbs eventually leads to a long period of conservative dominance (sometimes in coalition with Southern Democrats), African Americans become solidly Democratic.

4.  Democrats permanently break through in the suburbs, elections become almost entirely rural vs. urban affairs.  Republican rural margins start to match Democratic urban margins.  Left wing ideas enter the mainstream again.

Elections like 1920, 1932, and 1980 should be thought of as the middle of an era of ideological dominance, not the end of it.

For number 4 I would say 2000 to present instead of 2008, as 2000 was an election where the urban areas were dominated by gore and rural areas were dominated by bush . Also in 2000 it became apparent that the democrats didn't need rural areas to win an election as if they did slightly better in the suburbs they win that election .

If we are going on your points this is how I would describe them


1860-1912 : With the exception of 1896 these elections were basically North vs south
1912-1960 : democrats start to break in to the republican dominance in the north and start to win over the African American vote , while holding on to the solid south .
1960-2000: With growing suburb populations and the solid south beginning to become republican , this leads to a period of conservative dominance and democrats needing to nominate southerners or centrists to win
2000- Present : Democrats finally are able to win in the suburbs while rural areas and urban areas become solidly partisan.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 45,406


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2017, 08:35:18 PM »

Again, no party can count on rural voters, and the GOP certainly doesn't; there aren't enough of them.  Have we already forgotten that TRUMP even won the suburban vote and downballot Republicans did even better?

I said Dems dominate in  urban areas   , and GOP dominates in rural areas and nether need to do well in the areas they get dominated in as whoever wins suburban voters voters win the election
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