The circumtances where your state will become a tossup

[YaBoyNY]

Maine: ME-2 probably would be competitive if the GOP put any money into it. The right type of Republican could very well take it if that happens.

New Hampshire: It is. Deal with it, TNVolunteer.

Connecticut: Either Jodi Rell is somehow the nominee, or the Democrat actively insults the State while eating a baby on live television. Even then, only maybe.

lol

It's cute when you're wrong.

[YaBoyNY]

Maine: ME-2 probably would be competitive if the GOP put any money into it. The right type of Republican could very well take it if that happens.

New Hampshire: It is. Deal with it, TNVolunteer.

Connecticut: Either Jodi Rell is somehow the nominee, or the Democrat actively insults the State while eating a baby on live television. Even then, only maybe.

lol

It's cute when you're wrong.

Not exactly a substantive response...

Certainly more substantive than a fantasy where New Hampshire is a tossup.

[YaBoyNY]

I don't think you're taking elasticity into account.  I find it highly unlikely that WV and AR will remain to the right of places like KS and NE post-Obama (or at least long term post-Obama), just as I highly doubt VT will flip after MA in any circumstance.

No, I did take elasticity into account. I have a whole spreadsheet for this.

Fine, then I think you're putting too much weight on Obama era polarization.  WV may vote to the right of KS now, but it has a deeply Democratic tradition and huge Dem infrastructure there.  It'd be much more likely to flip to a moderate Democrat than a state like KS that has such a deep Republican heritage (it hasn't sent a Democratic Senator to DC in over 80 years).  Just my opinion.

Unfortunately, there's no real way to factor out Obama's influence.

Sure there is. Look at the 2006, 2004, and 2002 numbers for places such as Vermont/West Virginia.