UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Clyde1998]

Panelbase/Scotland
SNP - 44%
Con - 33%
Lab - 13%
Lib - 5%

[Clyde1998]

As I said earlier it's because no voters are beginning to vote as 'unionist' voters. The SNP got 56 seats with 50% of the vote in 2015.

Labour are heading towards the levels of Pasok in Scotland. Much like Brexit we have absolutely no stance on independence

The PSC of Catalonia is probably the better comparison.

In terms of the collapse, the old Union Nationale in Quebec (in the 60s/70s) is probably a good comparison. Went from 41% of the vote to 5% in seven years - losing all their seats in the process - after finding themselves squeezed by the independence party, Parti Québécois, and the, main federalist party, Liberals. The Union Nationale lost most of their support to the PQ as well, similar to Labour losing most of their support to the SNP.

(I recognise that the Union Nationale were closer to the Conservatives in terms of policy)

[Clyde1998]

Dumb question: wonder if any of the regional parties could keep a deposit in any constituency outside their home area. SNP outside of Scotland might have more appeal to some than other non-Tory parties.

So, wonder if this election result will inspire some to become more supportive of IRV systems over FPTP

SNP in Berwick - a town that's transferred between England and Scotland about 10 times in the last 1,000 years. SNP, also, in Liverpool would do quite well.

[Clyde1998]

Kantar Public (formerly TNS; 20-24 Apr)
Con - 46%
Lab - 24%
Lib - 11%
UKIP - 8%
Grn - 4%

[Clyde1998]

YouGov:
Con - 45% (-3)
Lab - 29% (+4)
Lib - 10% (-2)
UKIP - 7% (+2)
Oth - 9% (+1)

Gap narrowed by seven points since last week.

On top of this:
In hindsight was Britain right or wrong to vote to leave the EU?
Right - 43% (-3)
Wrong - 45% (+2)
Don't Know - 12% (+1)

This could get interesting going into the campaign...

[Clyde1998]

The first Scottish leaders debate has been announced. It will be broadcast on STV on the 24th May between 20:30 and 22:00. STV News article.

It will be between Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Ruth Davidson (Con), Kezia Dugdale (Lab) and Willie Rennie (Lib). There will be no representative from the Greens or UKIP.

It seems likely that this won't be the only Scottish debate, as I can see the BBC doing one.

[Clyde1998]

There are a lot of soft and floating voters in this election,

From canvassing the past few weeks, i've noticed the following:
- UKIP voters are swinging heavily toward the tories
- Soft Tory and Labour Remain voters very tempted to swing to the Lib dems
- Labour Leave voters are turned off by Corbyn and the party's mixed messages about brexit

2010 Labour voters that switched to UKIP in 2015, are swinging toward the Conservatives this time round.
Those voters cost Ed Ball his seat, Allison Seabeck her seat in plymouth, Liz evans in wales, etc in 2015.

UKIP won 3.8 Million votes in 2015 with 12.6%, half of those voters according to polls switched to the tories.
Conservatives won 11.3 Million votes in 2015, so if the polls are right, tories are gonna win 13.3 Million with 43%

I would really like to know how labour would do tho, i dont think they'd get less then 27% of the vote.

It seems that my theory that Labour voters moving to UKIP in 2015 would be a gateway drug for voting Conservative is coming true.

Where have you been canvasing? Any sign that things like the NHS and education may swing voters or is it overwhelmingly Brexit?

[Clyde1998]

The first Scottish leaders debate has been announced. It will be broadcast on STV on the 24th May between 20:30 and 22:00. STV News article.

It will be between Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Ruth Davidson (Con), Kezia Dugdale (Lab) and Willie Rennie (Lib). There will be no representative from the Greens or UKIP.

It seems likely that this won't be the only Scottish debate, as I can see the BBC doing one.

Apparently 3 unionists (one with less seats at Holyrood than the excluded Greens) v 1 nationalist is fair and balanced.

They always did that on Question Time, apparently it's fair because they have someone from different parties . Could cause a split in the pro-union vote, while keeping the pro-independence vote together, which would harm the Tories in Scotland.

I expect there will be at least one debate in Scotland that will include UKIP and the Greens.

[Clyde1998]

https://stv.tv/news/scotland/1386953-msps-on-alert-as-white-powder-sent-to-politicians/

STV News are reporting that 'white powers' has been sent to the constituency of office SNP MP John Nicolson (East Dunbartonshire), the Municipal Buildings of Angus Council (SNP-run) and the SNP headquarters in Edinburgh. Suggestions are that it's linked with the General Election.

[Clyde1998]

Paul Nuttall will contest a yet to be revealed seat.

Will he have lived there for years?

[Clyde1998]

The thing with these leaders ratings is that it's always asked as:

Theresa May as Prime Minister, Nicola Strugeon as First Minister, Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, Ruth Davidson as Scottish Conservative leader, etc.

There's a difference between how well someone is doing leading their party than how well someone is doing running the country, which sort of makes the figures incomparable with each other.

[Clyde1998]

Mind you, if you don't think they're doing a good job in their current role, you're hardly going to vote to promote them.

Of course, but generally you'd think that politicians would score better as leader of their party than as leader of the country - as there's less to scrutinise party leaders over. That doesn't bode well for Corbyn.

[Clyde1998]

Are terrible inaccurate constituency polls not going to be a feature of this race? I really enjoyed them in 2015 as they allowed me to talk about individual constituencies and pretend I had a clue as to what was going on there

It was only Ashcroft that was doing them publicly. I doubt that they will happen again in this election, as most were done before the final few months of the campaign, IIRC. They'd be great to see again though - particularly in constituencies where the Lib Dems could do well, UKIP did well in 2015 and in marginal constituencies.

[Clyde1998]

YouGov (27-28 Apr)
Con - 44% (-1)
Lab -  31% (+2)
Lib - 11% (+1)
UKIP - 6% (-1)
Grn - 2% (-1)

[Clyde1998]

Survation for Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA)/Kensington Constituency Poll (25-27 Apr)
Poll 1
Con - 46% (-6)
Lab - 29% (-2)
Lib - 17% (+11)
Grn - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 1% (-4)
3% swing from Con to Lab

Poll 2
Con - 32% (-20)
SBA - 28% (+28)
Lab - 23% (-8)
Lib - 9% (+3)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
UKIP - 2% (-3)
24% swing from Con to SBA

[Clyde1998]

Survation for Stop Brexit Alliance (SBA)/Kensington Constituency Poll (25-27 Apr)
Poll 1
Con - 46% (-6)
Lab - 29% (-2)
Lib - 17% (+11)
Grn - 7% (+2)
UKIP - 1% (-4)
3% swing from Con to Lab

Poll 2
Con - 32% (-20)
SBA - 28% (+28)
Lab - 23% (-8)
Lib - 9% (+3)
Grn - 5% (N/C)
UKIP - 2% (-3)
24% swing from Con to SBA

Is this a new political party?

They must be; can't find anything out about them. I would imagine that the Lib Dems would stand aside for them if they're that close to the Conservatives. They may potentially stand in other seats that voted remain overwhelmingly that the Conservatives hold as well. Could make it interesting.

[Clyde1998]

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (-)
LAB: 28% (-)
LDEM: 8% (-1)
UKIP: 8% (-)
GRN: 4% (-)
(ICMResearch / 28 Apr - 02 May)

Jeremy Corbyn as Leader of the Opposition has been
Effective: 13%
Ineffective: 69%
(YouGov / 27 - 28 Apr)

Theresa May as Prime Minister has been
Effective: 46%
Ineffective: 34%
(YouGov / 27 - 28 Apr)

Interesting how UKIP and the Libs are tied for PV 3rd place here. The polls overall seem to show a slight dip for the LibDems. The pipe dream of some that the Liberals will replace Labour as the opposition seems to be evaporating.

I think it's been more of a question of whether the Lib Dems would overtake the SNP in terms of seats. Right now, that seems unlikely, but it's possible that the national vote share figures aren't showing that there may be individual constituency results that could see the Lib Dems manage this.

[Clyde1998]

The thing is she said £300k in the interview when she meant £300m, while that's not a major error she failed to correct the error she made. Saying "about £80m" seems to be just a number that she plucked from nowhere. I don't think she would be a good Home Secretary, tbh - even before this.

[Clyde1998]

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 48% (+2)
LAB: 24% (-)
LDEM: 11% (-)
UKIP: 7% (-1)
(TNS_UK / 27 Apr - 02 May)

Westminster voting intention:
CON: 48% (+4)
LAB: 29% (-2)
LDEM: 10% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (-1)
(YouGov / 02 - 03 May)

Looks like that Labour "surge" didn't last long. The Diane Abbot gaffe is related I suppose.

Labour are doing better than they were when the election was called. I think that the previous couple of polls have been getting to YouGov's new standing position, with polls now going to fluctuate around the margin of error.

[Clyde1998]

Voted in the locals. Filled in the whole ballot this time.

1. SNP
2. SNP
3. Green
4. Libertarian (the party supports independence)
5. Liberal Democrat
6. Labour
7. Independent
8. Conservative

Who was your independent? I'm guessing they're pro-union based on your preferences.

[Clyde1998]

LucidTalk Northern Ireland poll (27-29 Apr)
DUP - 29.4% (+3.7)
SF - 27.7% (+3.2)
UUP - 14.8% (-1.2)
SDLP - 12.4% (-1.5)
All - 10.2% (+1.6)

[Clyde1998]

But if 1983 and 1987 in which local and national election were held right after another are any guide most likely the CON vote will be several percentages above 38%

They weren't held during the campaign period but before a GE was even called.

You couldn't get away with calling an election for a months time now.

[Clyde1998]

Opinium



CON   46
LAB   30
LIB     9
UKIP   7

Con down 1; Lib up 1 on their last poll.

[Clyde1998]

Telegraph poll

CON 46 (+4), LAB 31 (nc), LIB 9 (-1), UKIP 8 (nc)

This was conducted by ORB.

[Clyde1998]

Westminster voting intention:
Daily Mail: CON
The Sun: CON
Telegraph: CON
The Guardian: CON !!!
Via Guardian/ICM  (May 5-6)

Quite something

Wow. What was The Guardian rational for this?  Is it about Corybn or is it about backing May to get a good deal for UK in Brexit talks?  I assume Daily Express will be for CON this time instead of UKIP. 

I think it means people who read the Guardian, rather than the paper themselves.