UK General Election, June 8th 2017

[Clyde1998]

[Clyde1998]

so, we are now at "labour won't lose votes but gets screwed by the british system"-level.

Yeah. Labour are pretty much where they were in 2015, but as the Conservatives are doing much better, they'll overtake Labour in a number of seats to increase their majority. (If the percentages today come up on election day).

[Clyde1998]

On who would you trust to promote a fairer society:
T. May: 46%
J. Corbyn: 37%
(Survation)

On who would you trust to manage the economy:
T. May: 62%
J. Corbyn: 21%
(Survation)

On who would you trust to protect the NHS:
T. May: 42%
J. Corbyn: 39%
(Survation)

On who would you trust to negotiate the best Brexit deal for Britain:
T. May: 62%
J. Corbyn: 20%
(Survation)

You can see why May doesn't want to do a TV debate...

[Clyde1998]

I'm not sure if this has been posted here already, but:

Brighton Pavilion poll (ICM; 27 Apr-1 May)
Grn - 47% (+5)
Con - 25% (+2)
Lab - 23% (-4)
UKIP - 3% (-2)
Lib - 2% (-1)
Oth - 0% (-0.5)

[Clyde1998]

I get to choose from (Newbury):

Richard Benyon (Con)
Judith Bunting (Lib)
Paul Field (Grn)
Alex Skirvin (Lab)
Dave Yates (Apolitical Democrats)

The same for each of the parties as last time, expect for Labour and the Apolitical Democrats (although he was the candidate in 2010). No UKIP candidate pretty much kills off any chance of a Lib Dem gain in my constituency.

[Clyde1998]

My London seat projection model suggests that this is the current state of play in the capital, according to the recent YouGov poll:

Lab - 43 (-2)
Con - 30 (+3)
Lib - 0 (N/C)

Con Gains
Carshalton & Wallington (from Lib)
Dagenham & Rainham (from Lab)
Eltham (from Lab)
Enfield North (from Lab)
Ilford North (from Lab)

Lab Gains
Battersea (from Con)
Finchley & Golders Green (from Con)

[Clyde1998]

My London seat projection model suggests that this is the current state of play in the capital, according to the recent YouGov poll:

Lab - 43 (-2)
Con - 30 (+3)
Lib - 0 (N/C)

Con Gains
Carshalton & Wallington (from Lib)
Dagenham & Rainham (from Lab)
Eltham (from Lab)
Enfield North (from Lab)
Ilford North (from Lab)

Lab Gains
Battersea (from Con)
Finchley & Golders Green (from Con)

Hey, is that Maggie's old seat?

It is, yes. That would be one hell of a seat to fall to Labour. I think that's down as a Labour gain due to there being a large EU vote there, plus due to Labour being ahead of the Conservatives among middle class voters in London (yes, seriously) in the poll. I've got it down as Labour +0.5. Some interesting sub-samples may cause some surprise results.

Worth saying that I've got UKIP standing in each seat; which may not be the case when the election comes around.

[Clyde1998]

My London seat projection model suggests that this is the current state of play in the capital, according to the recent YouGov poll:

Lab - 43 (-2)
Con - 30 (+3)
Lib - 0 (N/C)

Con Gains
Carshalton & Wallington (from Lib)
Dagenham & Rainham (from Lab)
Eltham (from Lab)
Enfield North (from Lab)
Ilford North (from Lab)

Lab Gains
Battersea (from Con)
Finchley & Golders Green (from Con)

For the LAB gains ones I assume you feel the large remain CON vote will defect to LAB and that any defections will go to LAB and not LIB ?

Yeah. I've basically got the EU referendum sub-sample as 35% of the total vote share. According to the poll, 56% of remain voters in London say they'll vote Labour - which gives them a huge boost in some heavy remain areas. Battersea was 78% remain; Finchley was 69% remain.

[Clyde1998]

My London seat projection model suggests that this is the current state of play in the capital, according to the recent YouGov poll:

Lab - 43 (-2)
Con - 30 (+3)
Lib - 0 (N/C)

Con Gains
Carshalton & Wallington (from Lib)
Dagenham & Rainham (from Lab)
Eltham (from Lab)
Enfield North (from Lab)
Ilford North (from Lab)

Lab Gains
Battersea (from Con)
Finchley & Golders Green (from Con)

Hey, is that Maggie's old seat?

It is, yes. That would be one hell of a seat to fall to Labour. I think that's down as a Labour gain due to there being a large EU vote there, plus due to Labour being ahead of the Conservatives among middle class voters in London (yes, seriously) in the poll. I've got it down as Labour +0.5. Some interesting sub-samples may cause some surprise results.

Worth saying that I've got UKIP standing in each seat; which may not be the case when the election comes around.

Labour held it 1997-2010 so not that remarkable.

I didn't actually realise that, but I could argue it's a bit different for Corbyn's Labour to win the seat than 'New Labour' winning the seat.

[Clyde1998]

I guess LAB is everywhere except for NI and Speaker. 

CON is everywhere except for Speaker and has some candidates in NI. 

Other than Speaker where else is LIB not contesting outside of NI ?

It seems UKIP and Green are contesting in Speaker's seat again.

Seats being contested by UKIP larger than I thought although I think some of them are in NI.

why snp 59 when scotland have 60 seats?

Scotland has 59; unless Berwick has transferred back to Scotland without anyone noticing?

[Clyde1998]

According to Lord Ashcroft polls, Alex Salmond seat is too close to call.....
would be funny if he lost his seat,
but Aberdeenshire have seen a tory surge lately

Moray (Angus Robertson, SNP Westminster leader) is too close to call, as well. Don't know how well the model would predict personal votes and tactical voting.

[Clyde1998]

I've noticed that my constituency (Newbury) is "Lean Conservative". I don't know what the thresholds for the categories are, but for the Conservatives to fall to a 10% lead in the seat it would require an 18% swing to the Lib Dems (which would be a bigger swing than the Lib Dem gain 1997 (16.9%); albeit there was a by-election in 1993).

[Clyde1998]

Everyone's favorite analysts, The Political Compass, have released their hot UK takes.

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I'm guessing "DLP" is supposed to be the SDLP; or are they tracking a party that I've never heard of before?