Ontario 2018 election

[136or142]

According to various on Twitter, Doug Ford is considering running for the P.C leadership, and according to Steve Paikin there is already pressure being placed on John Tory to run if Doug Ford runs.  Apparently, several other Progressive Conservatives who are considering running have offered to stand aside and support Tory if Ford runs.

[136or142]

(Vic) Fedeli just ruled himself out.

My admiration to anybody who gets the reference:

I guess he couldn't alter his lifestyle to fit the fast lane.

[136or142]

Nobody wants to be Premier? Nobody wants to stop Doug Ford from being Premier?

It's almost like DoFo's on the verge of becoming the Jeremy Corbyn of the Ontario PCs.

Maybe they're all clearing the decks for John Tory.

https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2018/01/30/tory-makes-fun-of-fords-basement-campaign-launch.html

[136or142]

Doug Ford endorsed Christine Elliott the last time she ran (the family friendship thing.)  Any chance he could drop out and endorse her again?  It will be especially helpful to the Progressive Conservatives if Christine Elliott ran unopposed as that would allow them to get on with focusing on the general election long before the leadership convention (which they could probably cancel.)

[136or142]

Should the NDP form a government (almost certainly a minority) they don't have a single lawyer running in a winnable riding so far.  Is there any chance they could recruit Craig Scott to run in Spadina-Fort York.

[136or142]

While this should be viewed with skepticism, most recent Forum poll shows PCs well in front in Toronto http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2828/provincial-horserace-toronto-feb-2018/ .  If true this could mean a landslide provincially considering Toronto tends to be more liberal than the province as a whole.  That being said until the PCs choose the next leader based to take all polls with a grain of salt.  A poll I would like to say as how each of the three PC candidates would fare in a general election, that would be more interesting.  I find leaderless parties can sometimes result in poll numbers being artificially high or low.  Those that are worried the PCs may choose someone they are uncomfortable with might stick with what they know, but if they choose a leader they are comfortable with might switch.

At the same time, often I've found a generic candidates does better than an actual one.  In the US, almost all polls show a generic Democrat doing better against Trump than any actual names listed.  Otherwise people who aren't satisfied with the government of the day, they envision the opposition party will choose their ideal candidate, but once the leader is chosen some will invariably be unhappy.

Forum is the same polling firm that also had the Conservatives in the lead nationally.

[136or142]

While this should be viewed with skepticism, most recent Forum poll shows PCs well in front in Toronto http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2828/provincial-horserace-toronto-feb-2018/ .  If true this could mean a landslide provincially considering Toronto tends to be more liberal than the province as a whole.  That being said until the PCs choose the next leader based to take all polls with a grain of salt.  A poll I would like to say as how each of the three PC candidates would fare in a general election, that would be more interesting.  I find leaderless parties can sometimes result in poll numbers being artificially high or low.  Those that are worried the PCs may choose someone they are uncomfortable with might stick with what they know, but if they choose a leader they are comfortable with might switch.

At the same time, often I've found a generic candidates does better than an actual one.  In the US, almost all polls show a generic Democrat doing better against Trump than any actual names listed.  Otherwise people who aren't satisfied with the government of the day, they envision the opposition party will choose their ideal candidate, but once the leader is chosen some will invariably be unhappy.

Forum is the same polling firm that also had the Conservatives in the lead nationally.

Agreed, but still even if they are say 10 points off that would favour the PCs (As PCs always do much worse in Toronto than they do provincewide),  FWIW Campaign research is out today and shows a 15 point PC lead with a generic candidate 43% to 28%.  When tested against each of the three candidates, Doug Ford does the worst at 39%, Mulroney at 41% while Elliott the best at 46%.  Agree their record is not great either but at least they show the same trends other pollsters do which is Elliott is the most popular of the PC candidates and Ford is the least popular while Mulroney falls somewhere in between.  Also in the one where the PCs have a 15 point lead provincially, they are trailing in Toronto by 10.

The Campaign Research polls had actually previously be in line with the Innovative Research polls, so this poll being likely more in line with the Forum Poll could be interesting.

[136or142]

I don't see how Brown has a path to victory in the pc election, even if the sexual harassment allegations are fake he still doesn't have a large enough natural base in the party. The so-cons who helped him win in 2015 aren't going to back him again after he knifed them on the sex-ed curriculum

I think you underestimate the degree to which he has become something of a folk hero to many of these people (and other Trump type non social conservatives) by seemingly standing up to the #metoo movement and standing up to the 'elite insiders' in the P.C Party.

If the P.C Party doesn't block him from running, I'd predict his odds of winning at roughly 50/50.  Don't forget, he did get over 60% of the points in the 2015 leadership race.

[136or142]

Am I the only one that thinks all this is creating a perfect storm for Horwath a la Notley in 2015?

Or Bob Rae in 1990.

[136or142]

This completely blows my mind. I figured Ford would be a laughing stock and be capped at 25% or so. I always thought of the PC's as a country club chamber of commerce establishment party. I didn't think of it as a Trumpian pitchfork populist one.

Mike Harris was also something of a pitchfork populist though he worked at a country club (a golf pro.)

[136or142]

Singh's brother is running in Brampton East.

He's only the second lawyer running for the NDP and the first in a slightly winnable riding.

[136or142]

First post budget poll out and good news for Liberals while bad for PCs.

PC's 36 percent
Libs 29 percent
NDP 26 percent

Interestingly enough only 24 percent liked the budget while 44 percent did not so it could be more the Ford effect. Quito Maggi who is CEO of mainstreet tweeted his polls have shown tightening too but over anti-Ford voters going Liberal not budget. I've found Forum tends to underestimate Liberals and overestimate PC's mind you they also are good at picking up trends but tend to exaggerate them. The thing that really jumped out is the biggest shift was amongst seniors who were leaning heavily PC before but generally don't like Ford. Next week when more polls come out we will probably get a better idea.

I still think with Wynne's low approval ratings her winning the most seats is unlikely but could stay on as premier if Ford only gets a minority and she gangs up with Howarth to keep him out.

We'll obviously find out if this poll is just a blip or not or the dreaded '1 out of 20' but if it is accurate, I think the most important thing is that once these voters are taken from automatically supporting the P.Cs, they might be up for grabs even if they desert the Liberals.

There could be an opportunity here for the NDP.  This could be the first genuine three way election in Canada since ?

[136or142]

Thanks for the answer on the last three way elections in Canada.

[136or142]

Barely over two months from the election and the NDP still has nominated candidates in only about half the ridings (this includes the 16 incumbents running for reelection.)  If the NDP don't do well in this election, Andrea Horwath has a lot to answer for.

[136or142]

If no clear alternative for Ford presents itself, I do expect an NDP + LIB coalition in the event there is a Ford-led minority government.  I don't think the Forum poll provided seat projections, but with those numbers, the NDP and Libs would likely have about the same number of ridings.

I could sort of see the Liberals supporting the NDP, but I couldn't see the NDP supporting the Liberals to allow Kathleen Wynne to remain in power.

The Liberals clearly need a 'time out' from governing. This is why the result I'm hoping for is an NDP minority government.  This would keep a check on the NDP, and allow both the Liberals and the P.Cs to replace their hopeless leaders and allow them to try to renew themselves.

[136or142]

If no clear alternative for Ford presents itself, I do expect an NDP + LIB coalition in the event there is a Ford-led minority government.  I don't think the Forum poll provided seat projections, but with those numbers, the NDP and Libs would likely have about the same number of ridings.

I could sort of see the Liberals supporting the NDP, but I couldn't see the NDP supporting the Liberals to allow Kathleen Wynne to remain in power.

The Liberals clearly need a 'time out' from governing. This is why the result I'm hoping for is an NDP minority government.  This would keep a check on the NDP, and allow both the Liberals and the P.Cs to replace their hopeless leaders and allow them to try to renew themselves.

But even if that's an ideal-case scenario, what if (as one would casually think is more likely) it's the Liberals in the pole minority-coalition position?  Wouldn't that call for Wynne to remain in power by forced necessity, whether you feel she or her party require a "time out" or not?  Or do you seriously think the NDP (or the Wynne Liberals, for that matter) would rather prop up the Ford Tories?  The *Ford* Tories, remember.

If that's the case, I recommend burning down Ontario and starting over again.

[136or142]

The final possibility, rarer nowadays: like the famous top marginal rates in the 1950s USA or 1960s UK, almost nobody is actually in the tax bracket. This doesn't seem to apply to Ontario

To the best of my knowledge no country has a top marginal rate exceeding 60%.  Some countries have wealth taxes so if obscenely wealthy it might be possible to be paying more but for income taxes top rates of over 90% like the US once had no longer exist although no one actually paid anywhere close to that, well except for Elvis Presley who had a terrible accountant so IRS got more from him than any other American.  UK had a top rate of 95% in the 60s which is why most British artists went abroad.  Beatles tax man song that says if 5% appears too small or 1 for you 19 for me refers to this.  Paul McCartney today would have a top marginal rate of 45% (Since over 70 he is exempt from national insurance thus not 47%) and I suspect like most rich people he has good accountants so probably pays much less than that.

George Harrison wrote Tax Man.  It's amazing that line was literally true.

[136or142]

This is what, 3 in a row, that have the NDP in the 27-28% range?  As soon as the NDP solidifies its position as the alternative, which I expect is happening now, I expect (like what happened with the federal Layton orange wave), they will only go up. 

Would be interesting to see what the result would be if the wheels fell off for the Liberals and the NDP were a solid 2nd place They only pulled 25% or so federally in 2011, tying the Liberals. I wonder what the map would look like if the results were something like

If that happened it would still be PCs 82 seats so solid majority, but NDP at 38 seats, while Liberals to only 4 seats (thus lose official party status).  Below is the map I created.  Interestingly enough both Ford and Wynne lose their own seats (Ford's goes NDP, while Wynne's goes PC).  Only Liberal seats would be Toronto Centre, Toronto-St. Paul's, Ottawa Centre, and Ottawa-Vanier.

I was wondering about this.  If Liberal support collapsed, would it go largely to the NDP in some historic Liberal ridings, and if so, could the NDP win those ridings.

Obviously at the top of my list were Toronto Centre, Toronto-St Paul's, Ottawa Centre (the NDP has won this riding at times federally and provincially) and Ottawa-Vanier.  Also, maybe based on 2014 results and ridings, Etobicoke-Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Scarborough-Guildwood and York Center. And finally, Kingston and the Islands (I know the NDP won there in 1990.)

[136or142]

Given my disdain for these sorts of questions (though I now get the point more) I thought of this as a joke, but there might be something to it:

Describe a Bob Rae/NDP 1995 (not 1990)-Doug Ford/P.C 2018 voter.

[136or142]

I presumed it was a "1990 doesn't count" question, rather than one of those rare few who might have switched *to* the NDP in 1995...

Yes.

[136or142]

NDP popularity in much of Northern Ontario increased from 1990 to 1995 as a result of several government actions. 

[136or142]

72% Green, 63% Liberal, 60% NDP, 46% P.C.  With the New Zealand election I was below 50% for all the major parties.

[136or142]

Why is the Green Party on the Economic left there?  They are much further right than either Liberals or NDP on that front, with wanting to privatize weed sales and all

Not wanting a government monopoly on weed does not make a party right wing. In fact, getting out of the business of selling weed frees up a lot of money for the government to spend on social programs.

Are you claiming the government can't make a profit with having a monopoly selling weed? 

I realize you're likely arguing that the government would make more money taxing it than being in the retail business itself, but, at least in British Columbia, the government seems to have done a good job with liquor stores (beer and wine can now be sold privately, separate from bars and restaurants of course.)

I only know so much about this because I don't drink alcohol, but the government run stores seem to get a fair deal of praise.

[136or142]

Why is the Green Party on the Economic left there?  They are much further right than either Liberals or NDP on that front, with wanting to privatize weed sales and all

Not wanting a government monopoly on weed does not make a party right wing. In fact, getting out of the business of selling weed frees up a lot of money for the government to spend on social programs.

Are you claiming the government can't make a profit with having a monopoly selling weed? 

I realize you're likely arguing that the government would make more money taxing it than being in the retail business itself, but, at least in British Columbia, the government seems to have done a good job with liquor stores (beer and wine can now be sold privately, separate from bars and restaurants of course.)

I only know so much about this because I don't drink alcohol, but the government run stores seem to get a fair deal of praise.

Count your lucky stars. Nova Scotia Liquor Commission is awful.

The great thing of living in a nation is that you are free to go across borders and buy alcohol in any province you want and take it back with you.  Oh wait....

[136or142]

Doug Ford calls the question he was asked about 'does he know how bills become laws' a 'gotcha question' and his enablers like Andrew MacDougall at MacLean's (MacDougall is former Communications Director for Prime Minister Stephen Harper) refer to his lack of knowledge on this as something only insiders care about:

"You can bet your life Reynolds wouldn’t have written up an admiring piece detailing Ford’s response. Reynolds had absolutely no interest in informing the “people of Ontario” about civics; he was in it for the possibility of a trainwreck. It was a gag to please himself and his mates in the press gallery."

He then suggests those with basic civics knowledge are the problem: "Queen’s Park, mind you, is full of people who know how to answer that question, and it’s not like the province is in rude health, fiscal or otherwise. If knowledge of civics were a cure all to the problems plaguing Ontario then I would be the first in line to applaud Reynolds for leading the charge."

I'd like to suggest, with help from Orwell, Doug Ford and the P.Cs campaign slogan:
Either
1.Ignorance is Knowledge
or
2.Ignorance is Expertise