Ontario 2018 election

[136or142]

If all the undecideds go to the NDP, then that would give them the lead!

And to think Jagmeet Singh could have stayed in provincial politics and become Ontario Attorney General (and maybe Deputy Premier.)

[136or142]

If all the undecideds go to the NDP, then that would give them the lead!

And to think Jagmeet Singh could have stayed in provincial politics and become Ontario Attorney General (and maybe Deputy Premier.)

Well, if the NDP does win, and does a good job in office, it would do a good job to boost the federal party's numbers, and he might just become prime minister!

A bird in the hand...

If Jagmeet Singh was more interested in federal politics, I can understand that.

[136or142]

So, based on these latest polls, what ridings held by the Liberals would the NDP likely pick up and are there any P.C held ridings that the NDP might win? (for instance, maybe Sarnia-Lambton)

From the Liberals I would guess
1.Ottawa Centre
2.Kingston and the Islands
3.Scarborough-Rouge Park
4.Scarborough South West
5.Beaches-East York
6.Davenport
7.Spadina-Fort York
8.University-Rosedale (new riding)
9.Humber River-Black Creek (formerly York West)
10.York South-Weston
11.London North Centre
12.Sudbury

[136or142]

Both Wynne and Horwath say it's too early to talk about a coalition, but neither rule it out

Unfortunately I'm sure nobody is happier to hear this than Doug Ford.

[136or142]

I also think the momentum will keep up, and I'm thinking a minority NDP government at this point.

We'll see if there is an 'anybody but the NDP' counterswing, but at this point it looks like the Liberals have nearly reached rock bottom.

[136or142]

I also think the momentum will keep up, and I'm thinking a minority NDP government at this point.

Definitely possible although the PC numbers will need to fall a bit for that to happen but not impossible especially if undecided voters overwhelmingly break NDP.  Nonetheless I tend to think if NDP wins, that will only happen if Liberals completely implode meaning fewer than 5 Liberal seats and thus a majority for one of the parties.

Not necessarily.  Because of uncertainly with the polls and people's uncertainty over the accuracy of the polls, it's very unlikely all that many people would be thinking "I'd vote P.C to stop the NDP, but the polls show the P.Cs have a 5 point lead over the NDP, so I don't need to worry and I can vote Liberal."

[136or142]

Just for a baseline, these are the 2014 Ontario election results:

Liberals: 37.65
P.C: 35.45
NDP:22.74

(I would have liked 22.75 for the symmetry.)

Interesting if the P.Cs are back where they started (don't read too much into a single poll.)  Of course, it's not like the P.C support is the exact same in every riding as in 2014 yet alone every region, but if the poll is accurate and holds, there are several P.C held ridings that could fall to the NDP. (I know this has been discussed already, but I asked about it previously.)

[136or142]

Just for a baseline, these are the 2014 Ontario election results:

Liberals: 37.65
P.C: 35.45
NDP:22.74

(I would have liked 22.75 for the symmetry.)

Looks more like 2011 results.

Oops.  Oh wait, that was just the warm-up for the 2014 results to provide greater context. 


2014 results
Liberal: 38.65%
P.C: 31.25
NDP: 23.75

(Symmetry!)

[136or142]

Just for a baseline, these are the 2014 Ontario election results:

Liberals: 37.65
P.C: 35.45
NDP:22.74

(I would have liked 22.75 for the symmetry.)

Looks more like 2011 results.

Oops.  Oh wait, that was just the warm-up for the 2014 results to provide greater context. 


2014 results
Liberal: 38.65%
P.C: 31.25
NDP: 23.75

(Symmetry!)

What caused the major difference in Liberal vote efficiency from 2011 and 2014?
In 2011 the liberals won the PV by 2.2% but missed getting a majority by 1 seat whereas in 2014 the liberals won the PV by 7.4% and only won a 4 seat majority.

Hrm, never thought about it that way before.  The Liberals did gain 5 seats (out of 107 ridings.) What would you have expected?

[136or142]

NDP is at 30% in Eastern Ontario if the Ipsos poll is correct.  Would that mean anything beyond Ottawa Centre and Kingston or would it just result in a lot of wasted votes?

I'd guess maybe Peterborough-Kawartha and one or two other ridings in Ottawa.

[136or142]

Andrea Horwath could have been dumped as leader after the last election, and here she is now.

Not that Jagmeet Singh has been terrible, but I think this is more evidence that Mulcair deserved another shot.

[136or142]

A couple of other things...

(1) The NDP's going into this election with more seats than they did in 1990.
(2) Horwath's projecting more of a "leader-in-waiting" confidence than Rae really did in 1990--he was as bamboozled by what was happening as the rest of us...

I'm not sure what your point is, but the NDP also had several MPPs who were defeated in either 1985 or 1987 who ran again in 1990.  

[136or142]

It grinds my gears that every single Canadian poll uses decimals when it is impossible to get accuracy down to the tenth of a percent in a poll. Can anyone explain why Canadian polling companies do this?

To annoy you?

[136or142]

Quito Maggi from Mainstreet tweeted despite close numbers, the firm has 67 seats PC, 47 seats NDP, 7 seats Liberals, and 1 seat Greens.  Likewise Advanced Symbolics which is an AI firm that correctly predicted Brexit and Trump's win has popular vote at 37.2% PC, 36.5% NDP, and 21.4% Liberal while seat count at 73 PC, 50 NDP, 1 Liberal and due to the NDP running up the margins that is why PCs would still win a majority.  However there are 14 seats the NDP can pick up but they have to take from Tory voters as taking 5% of current Tory voters would do the trick of 65 NDP to 57 PC while 5% from Liberals would not being 68 PC to 56 NDP.  Off course things can and will change before election date, but I wonder if Doug Ford will like Trump and like in the leadership race lose the popular vote but still win the election.  If that happens I think that will make the NDP argument for changing the electoral system that much stronger when they do form government.

1 Liberal ?  !!!!!

[136or142]

Quito Maggi from Mainstreet tweeted despite close numbers, the firm has 67 seats PC, 47 seats NDP, 7 seats Liberals, and 1 seat Greens.  Likewise Advanced Symbolics which is an AI firm that correctly predicted Brexit and Trump's win has popular vote at 37.2% PC, 36.5% NDP, and 21.4% Liberal while seat count at 73 PC, 50 NDP, 1 Liberal and due to the NDP running up the margins that is why PCs would still win a majority.  However there are 14 seats the NDP can pick up but they have to take from Tory voters as taking 5% of current Tory voters would do the trick of 65 NDP to 57 PC while 5% from Liberals would not being 68 PC to 56 NDP.  Off course things can and will change before election date, but I wonder if Doug Ford will like Trump and like in the leadership race lose the popular vote but still win the election.  If that happens I think that will make the NDP argument for changing the electoral system that much stronger when they do form government.

1 Liberal ?  !!!!!

No he said 7 liberals and one Green Party member.

No, the AI calculation was for 1 Liberal seat.

[136or142]

Quito Maggi from Mainstreet tweeted despite close numbers, the firm has 67 seats PC, 47 seats NDP, 7 seats Liberals, and 1 seat Greens.  Likewise Advanced Symbolics which is an AI firm that correctly predicted Brexit and Trump's win has popular vote at 37.2% PC, 36.5% NDP, and 21.4% Liberal while seat count at 73 PC, 50 NDP, 1 Liberal and due to the NDP running up the margins that is why PCs would still win a majority.  However there are 14 seats the NDP can pick up but they have to take from Tory voters as taking 5% of current Tory voters would do the trick of 65 NDP to 57 PC while 5% from Liberals would not being 68 PC to 56 NDP.  Off course things can and will change before election date, but I wonder if Doug Ford will like Trump and like in the leadership race lose the popular vote but still win the election.  If that happens I think that will make the NDP argument for changing the electoral system that much stronger when they do form government.

1 Liberal ?  !!!!!

I don't see the surprise of a sub-20 Liberal party having only one seat.

It's unprecedented (for the Liberals in Ontario.)  One more to Hatfield level.  (Of course, this is just a projection, but if accurate this is the real McCoy.)

[136or142]

Forum has a big shocker,

NDP near 50%
PCs over 30%
Liberals under 15%

While probably not quite that extreme, its looking more and more like an NDP majority.  I will wait for the numbers over the weekend, but at this point seems NDP will have a big enough lead to overcome voter inefficiency.  Doug Ford will likely go down as blowing one of the biggest leads ever.  If this turns out to be true, Doug Ford will likely leave politics for good.  Off course Mainstreet research as well as Symbolic Analytics still suggest a much closer race so lets wait and see how things play out before making definitive predictions.

Forum polls suck.

[136or142]

I don't think people are talking enough about Bay of Quinte as a possible NDP pick up. During the federal election, it was a 3-way race until the Liberal surge.

In spite of your optimism, I beg to differ.

2015 Federal Election results
Neil Ellis - Liberal - 29281   - 50.70%
Jodie Jenkins - Conservative - 19781    - 34.30%
Terry Cassidy - NDP - 7001 - 12.10%

If the NDP actually won Bay of Quinte, they would probably be looking at 100+ MPPs.   

I'm sorry, which polling firm do you work for again? I said before the surge. There were a lot of ridings the NDP was competitive in when they were leading the polls that totally evaporated in the month before the federal election.

I heard you the first time, but 12.1% before, or after the surge is still just 12.1%.  And in my book, to move votes from 12.1% to 45-50% in unison takes something extraordinary, something I do not yet see in this election.  We will agree to disagree here.

What gave you the impression that I work for a polling firm?

That was just me being a snarky dick.

It's Friday - snarky dick works !

"Friday" was Bob Dylan's best song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9FISHEO3gsM

Not to go too off topic, but the youtube comments are an example to me of the creativity of average people:

"Gotta get down on Friday" is an obvious observation of the troops in Vietnam whom were dodging gunfire and bombardment... "Sitting in the back seat" is a willingness to appreciate the struggle of Rosa Parks and the whole Civil Rights Movement... A beautiful and spiritual song really.

----
I remember hearing this song in Vietnam. Me and my Buddies, sat around this radio. We would hear things like CCR play, but Dylan always got the guys going.
We were just a bunch of kids back then, in mens Uniforms. But that night, when I first heard this song, it felt like we were all part of something bigger. Something else.

----
I like in the beginning of the song where Dylan sings "everybody's Russian" I like how that lyric really captures the fear and paranoia of the Cold War during the 1960's

[136or142]

Not that I'm saying it'll matter in the end, but Bay of Quinte is the most likely seat the "poppy" issue will cost the NDP - if there's one.

I saw The National Post made something over that.  Maybe they should stop posting articles from disgraced convicted felon Conrad Black before they judge other people.

[136or142]

Unlike Hudak, AFAIK Ford hasn't attacked unions and collective bargaining in this election.  Obviously he wants to win back all those working class Conservative voters Hudak lost in 2014 (he also snuck into the labour day parade in Toronto last year).

Donald Trump also generally played nice with unions during the 2016 U.S election.

[136or142]

Apparently Ford is now running on 'experience matters.'  This is from the same guy whose supporters called a question on how does a law get made an 'elitist gotcha question.'

Conservatives were for the idea that 'ignorance is knowledge' before they were against it.

Doug Ford's experience completely disqualifies him as a Premier.

[136or142]

Forum out with a new poll which shows a wild PC-NDP swing

PC 39% (+6)
NDP 35% (-12)
Liberals 19% (+5)

Forum seat model shows PC winning 71 seats to the NDP 49 seats and 6 for the Liberals.

http://torontosun.com/news/local-news/braun-doug-fords-pcs-inch-ahead-in-new-poll

H+K strategies shows the NDP in the lead.

NDP 39% (+7)
PC 37% (-1)
Liberals 19% (-4)
Green 6% (+6)
http://hkinsights.ca/research-results-a-hold-your-nose-and-vote-election/

This is why Forum Polls are junk polls.

[136or142]

Just curious, has baby Trudeau intervened at all on behalf of the Ontario Libs, or do federal politicians generally keep their noses out of provincial campaigns, unlike in the US?

Completely out of it except for actually voting (and for some reason the right was all up in arms because he represents a Quebec riding, but as PM he lives in Ontario, so what's the big deal?), but some of his MPs have canvassed, but are mostly staying out of it.

Likewise Scheer has stayed out too, but Jagmeet has been out there trying to get his brother elected.

Justin Trudeau did a photo op with Kathleen Wynne before the official start of the campaign.

[136or142]

Yeah, if you believe that, look at B.C and Alberta.

I agree the NDP aren't a party of fiscal responsibility (although in B.C there is still a small operating surplus) but that doesn't automatically mean that the P.Cs are a party of fiscal responsibility, or even that the P.Cs are more fiscally responsible than the NDP.

[136or142]

I was just wondering, not that I'm making any allegations here, is there any evidence that Forum doesn't actually even conduct polls but just sells made up numbers to media outlets that are either roughly in line with credible pollsters or going where they think real polling numbers will go, but pushed out more to the extreme in order to be sensational.