Canadian Election 2019

[136or142]

Christine Moore, NDP MP for Abitibi-Témiscamingue will not run again. She can be added to the list of incumbents not running.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Canadian_federal_election#Incumbents_not_running_for_reelection

She had a lot of bad press recently and was never offered a senior role by Mulcair or Singh this Parliament.

Very likely Liberal gain.

I wonder if she waited out the NDP decision on whether Erin Weir could run under their banner again or not.

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The provincial breakdowns on the latest Nanos on the Numbers aren't out yet. Of course all the numbers are within the margin of error, but the Liberals are now back into essentially a tie: 32.5% to 32.8% for the Conservatives.  This is +2.2% for the Liberals and -1.2% for the Conservatives from last week.

Of course there are a number of possibilities, the unpopularity of the Doug Ford Conservatives, the SNC Scandal being further in the rear view mirror...  but, I like to think the main reason is the reaction to AGW.

For much of the first decade of the 21st century belief in whether AGW was real or not depended on the time of year: during the summer more people 'believed', and during the winter months less people believed.  

I suspect this will be the same thing with the carbon tax.  The only recent poll on this had 40% in favor of the carbon tax and 47% opposed.  As we get in to the summer months, I think people will recognize more and more that they are paying for global warming whether they pay a carbon tax or not and this will result in support for the carbon tax to increase.  Then this support will decline again as we move further away from summer.

So, where all this is leading to, is I'd suggest the Liberals move the election date up a couple weeks from October 21st so that memories of the very likely long, hot summer are fresher.

[136or142]

The provincial breakdowns on the latest Nanos on the Numbers aren't out yet. Of course all the numbers are within the margin of error, but the Liberals are now back into essentially a tie: 32.5% to 32.8% for the Conservatives.  This is +2.2% for the Liberals and -1.2% for the Conservatives from last week.

Of course there are a number of possibilities, the unpopularity of the Doug Ford Conservatives, the SNC Scandal being further in the rear view mirror...  but, I like to think the main reason is the reaction to AGW.

For much of the first decade of the 21st century belief in whether AGW was real or not depended on the time of year: during the summer more people 'believed', and during the winter months less people believed.  

I suspect this will be the same thing with the carbon tax.  The only recent poll on this had 40% in favor of the carbon tax and 47% opposed.  As we get in to the summer months, I think people will recognize more and more that they are paying for global warming whether they pay a carbon tax or not and this will result in support for the carbon tax to increase.  Then this support will decline again as we move further away from summer.

So, where all this is leading to, is I'd suggest the Liberals move the election date up a couple weeks from October 21st so that memories of the very likely long, hot summer are fresher.

Not sure if increased emphasis on environment/global warning would help Liberals. IMO it seems more likely Liberals would bleed more support to the NDP/Greens than gain voters from Tories. Especially considering that most Tories don't believe in AGW.

Not quite

https://www.citynews1130.com/2018/11/30/poll-canadians-climate-change/

35% of Conservatives know the AGW theory is real.

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In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.

Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.

Thanks - wasn't aware. That should make him the favourite with the open seat, but I don't know anything about Jason Deveau. The Conservatives could win between 1 and 5 seats in NS (the 5 mainland rural ones, although Kings-Hants is a real outside chance; I don't see Macleod and Orrell winning, do they know something I don't?) - but I've heard Sackville is competitive? Perhaps you know about that.

Rural NS 's politics are highly candidate based, so while I wouldn't bet on Orrell or MacLeod winning their seats, but at the same time it wouldn't be that surprising if either of them pulled off an upset.

Sackville and Kings-Hants are trickier. Both were more considered safe by virtue of their incumbent until Stoffer's surprise loss and Brison's retirement. I would guess they're both Liberal holds but I really don't know what's going on. Kings-Hants might be a dark horse candidate for a Tory pickup though.

One other thing to note: Stephen McNeil's popularity has taken a turn for the worse over the past year, and there hasn't been a chance for the elctorate to replace him with a Tory like other provinces. Trudeau won't have the advantage of a Doug Ford blunting his losses here.

My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.

Any chance for the Green Party in either the Halifax Metro area or on Cape Breton (I wouldn't expect 'Mainland' Nova Scotia - which includes the coasts!)

[136or142]

Nanos June 21st:

CPC - 32.82%  -1.18%
LPC - 32.53%  +2.21%
NDP - 16.90%  +0.14
GRN - 10.18%  -1.19%

vs May 17th:
                         Current Trend
CPC - 35.89%    -> -3.07%
LPC - 30.64%    -> +1.89%
NDP - 14.19%   -> +2.71%
GRN - 11.14%   -> -0.96%

Trend - Generally decrease for the CPC and the Greens, increase for the LPC and the NDP; The Liberals seem to be gaining back support mostly from the Greens, some of that is going to the NDP as well. I'd also suspect some small move from CPC -> LPC due to TMX

No, this is entirely due to global warming!

Don't want to make too much of one poll, but interesting that the Conservatives have the exact same level of support that they had in the 2015 election.  I think there is no question the Conservatives are unable/don't seem interested in expanding their base. I think this is the downside of their right wing echo chamber - National Post, right wing talk radio, social media - where they seem to think that everybody in Canada has the exact same views that they have.

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In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

[136or142]

In the most hotly contested NDP nomination, probably in the country, Toronto's Parkdale-High Park, the NDP nominated Paul Taylor, Executive of FoodShare Toronto.
I believe he won on the first ballot.
But there are rumblings that many of Saron's supporters were not registered and the executive was not-so-subtly trying to support one candidate over the others.

Really glad he won - he should be a great MP for PHP. I'm not ideologically similar to him but I've seen him campaign, I was very impressed.

In my party's nomination news:

PC MLA Alfie Macleod was nominated for the safe NS Liberal seat of Cape Breton-Canso.
Jeremy Patzer won the one of most hotly contested CPC nominations in Cypress Hills-Grasslands.
After Hardazan Khattra was removed as candidate for Dufferin-Caledon, Kyle Seeback and Barb Shaughnessy.
Former Essex MP Jeff Watson is the favourite in Battle River-Crowfoot, our safest seat.


Surprisingly I'm really impressed with some of the candidates the CPC have already nominated - I'll go through them nearer the election.

To add to your list, Tory MLA Chris d'Entremont won the nomination in West Nova over the weekend.

Thanks - wasn't aware. That should make him the favourite with the open seat, but I don't know anything about Jason Deveau. The Conservatives could win between 1 and 5 seats in NS (the 5 mainland rural ones, although Kings-Hants is a real outside chance; I don't see Macleod and Orrell winning, do they know something I don't?) - but I've heard Sackville is competitive? Perhaps you know about that.

Rural NS 's politics are highly candidate based, so while I wouldn't bet on Orrell or MacLeod winning their seats, but at the same time it wouldn't be that surprising if either of them pulled off an upset.

Sackville and Kings-Hants are trickier. Both were more considered safe by virtue of their incumbent until Stoffer's surprise loss and Brison's retirement. I would guess they're both Liberal holds but I really don't know what's going on. Kings-Hants might be a dark horse candidate for a Tory pickup though.

One other thing to note: Stephen McNeil's popularity has taken a turn for the worse over the past year, and there hasn't been a chance for the elctorate to replace him with a Tory like other provinces. Trudeau won't have the advantage of a Doug Ford blunting his losses here.

My best guess right now: Tories pick up Cumberland Colchester, Central Nova, West Nova, and maybe one of Kings-Hants, Cape Breton-Canso, and Sydney-Victoria. NDP comes close in Halifax but fails to pick up any seats in the province.

Any chance for the Green Party in either the Halifax Metro area or on Cape Breton (I wouldn't expect 'Mainland' Nova Scotia - which includes the coasts!)

If the Greens surge they might have a chance in Halifax or Halifax West. Halifax is a very good fit demographically for the Greens. If they surged to 10-20 seats it would definitely be on my list of pickups. Halifax West isn't a great fit, but the Greens are running a city councilor there. Cape Breton is one of the last places I'd expect a Green to win.

Thanks for the reply. 

I know there are only two federal Cape Breton ridings, but there are parts of Cape Breton that are more environmentally sensitive and reliant on that environment similar to Prince Edward Island.

[136or142]

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

So, Erin Weir took a riding in 2015 that the NDP would have won by about 10% in 2011 and wins it by about 200 or so votes.

He then gets tossed out of the caucus on what may or may not have been fair charges, and he suddenly becomes something of a folk hero to the extent that NDP voters won't vote for the party in 2019?

[136or142]

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

So, Erin Weir took a riding in 2015 that the NDP would have won by about 10% in 2011 and wins it by about 200 or so votes.

He then gets tossed out of the caucus on what may or may not have been fair charges, and he suddenly becomes something of a folk hero to the extent that NDP voters won't vote for the party in 2019?

They would have won it in 2011 by 500 votes (redistributed), so I doubt if the boundaries had changed then they would've scored that high a win, but yeah, you're right on the rest of it.

Thanks for the reply. 

I know there are only two federal Cape Breton ridings, but there are parts of Cape Breton that are more environmentally sensitive and reliant on that environment similar to Prince Edward Island.

For a party like the Greens a lot depends on where they actually target, so I don't see them going for Cape Breton - the two seats were to my knowledge the only two where the Liberals won a majority of electors, not just votes. That didn't even happen in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. But I agree with you that Cape Breton is a more diverse place than it would first appear.

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

I remember Hatman went through the redistributed numbers in 2015 including for Regina-Lewvan.  It may not have been as much as a redistributed 10% win in 2011 but I'm sure it was more than 500 votes.

[136or142]

In Regina-Lewvan, NDP is planning to nominate Jigar Patel, a local grocery store owner. Probably paves the way for a Liberal surge in the riding, they have a good candidate in Winter Fedyk, a prominent public servant in the city.

I'd be surprised.  The Liberals haven't had deep roots in Saskatchewan since at least 'Trudeaumania' in 1968.  Even when they won 5 seats in 1993 it was mostly due to the split on the right and the decline of the NDP in Saskatchewan, even as the NDP held 5 of their ten seats there in that election.

The Liberals were only behind the Tories and the NDP by 8% in 2015. With a weak NDP candidate, the Liberals could pick up a good chunk of the folks who voted for the NDP in the past.

As somebody who lives in SK and is an NDP supporter, I can't see Patel doing nearly as well as Weir did in 2015, and even the NDP riding association president basically said that she couldn't see the NDP keeping the seat. In Regina-Lewvan, I anticipate a lot of NDP -> Liberal swing voters this year, as the NDP has basically given up on the seat itself.

So, Erin Weir took a riding in 2015 that the NDP would have won by about 10% in 2011 and wins it by about 200 or so votes.

He then gets tossed out of the caucus on what may or may not have been fair charges, and he suddenly becomes something of a folk hero to the extent that NDP voters won't vote for the party in 2019?

They would have won it in 2011 by 500 votes (redistributed), so I doubt if the boundaries had changed then they would've scored that high a win, but yeah, you're right on the rest of it.

Thanks for the reply.  

I know there are only two federal Cape Breton ridings, but there are parts of Cape Breton that are more environmentally sensitive and reliant on that environment similar to Prince Edward Island.

For a party like the Greens a lot depends on where they actually target, so I don't see them going for Cape Breton - the two seats were to my knowledge the only two where the Liberals won a majority of electors, not just votes. That didn't even happen in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity. But I agree with you that Cape Breton is a more diverse place than it would first appear.

The Greens could focus on Halifax - but it would probably have a similar result, just with lower vote totals for the Grits and NDP. Fredericton is far and away their best target in the Atlantics as a whole so I'd be interested to see a poll of that.

I remember Hatman went through the redistributed numbers in 2015 including for Regina-Lewvan.  It may not have been as much as a redistributed 10% win in 2011 but I'm sure it was more than 500 votes.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/trans2013&document=p46&lang=e

It was slightly more - 506 votes.

Thanks for the correction.

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http://338canada.com/map.htm

Canada has our own Nate Silver by name of Eric Grenier.

Hatman doesn't like Eric Grenier.

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I wonder if Scheer would get knifed as party leader after one try like what happened to poor Mulclair.

Depends on how they perform come election day. If they gain enough seats that they hold the Liberals to a minority, then I'd presume that his position would be secure through the next election.

Its less about the raw seat count than it is about what consensus develops about how Scheer campaigned. In Mulcair's case, if he had run a campaign that New Democrats felt good about and he had performed well in debates etc... and was seen as having lost due to forces beyond his control - he would have easily been confirmed as leader. Instead, he was widely review as having run a dull, demoralizing campaign and as having made a series of really bad strategic decisions that cost the party dearly. On top of that he showed no contrition and had absolutely nothing to say about what he would do differently in the future so as not to repeat the same mistakes. On top of that, since by all accounts Mulcair was a really unpleasant person with a miserable personality - there was no "reservoir of good will" towards him in the party. No one ever really liked him as a person in the first place.

With regard to Scheer, if he is seen as having campaigned reasonably well and he does a competent job in the debates and he gains some ground but loses the election - and the consensus is that he lost largely because of a backlash against Doug Ford in Ontario - then he can probably live to fight another day...Harper lost in 2004 and still got to stay as CPC leader. If on the other hand, Scheer falls flat on his face in the campaign and is seen as having been a major liability to his party and he makes a lot of enemies within the party - that is a different story and then there would be pressure on his to quit. But is ANYONE in the Tory party going to regret that they picked Scheer as their leader instead of Maxime Bernier???

No, but maybe Erin O'Toole should have been the compromise candidate and not Andrew Scheer.

I think the main problem Scheer has is the Conservative echo chamber and the expectations this leads to.  it seems to me that most Conservatives genuinely believe that virtually all Canadians agree with them that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is 'destroying Canada', that the carbon tax is nothing but a 'tax grab' and that Canadians are just waiting to throw the Liberals out in virtually every riding in the next election.

I'm not even sure that holding the Liberals to a minority or even winning the most seats in a minority but remaining in opposition would satisfy most Conservatives.

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FYI, Lisa Raitt cannot speak French. When she ran for leader she mouthed some horribly accented "French" that she was clearly reading from a script written in phonetics. GONG

Whereas Pierre Poilievre can - if Scheer forms government I suspect it'll between those two for Finance Minister, unless there's some star candidate I missed.

The idea of the noxious, hyperpartisan Pierre Polievre as Prime Minister should convince all sensible Canadians against voting Conservative.

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I’ve heard that despite his name being “Pierre Poilievre” he is 100% Anglo and barely speaks any French

I believe the OP was referring to either Lisa Raitt or Pierre Polievre being named Finance Minister, not of them running for the Conservative leadership.

[136or142]

Who will succeed Singh?

As leader of the 'third party'? 

Elizabeth May.

[136or142]

Lenore Zann won the Liberal nomination.

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Surprised the Greens aren't way out ahead. On paper, should be an easy pickup. I mean, they have the Greens losing support! I guess this is due to Liberal voters coming home due to not voting for their resigned candidate in 2015.

The Green Party mayor of Victoria Lisa Helps isn't all that popular (only reelected with all 43.1% of the vote despite not having a high profile challenger.)  So, maybe she doesn't helps.

[136or142]

Surprised the Greens aren't way out ahead. On paper, should be an easy pickup. I mean, they have the Greens losing support! I guess this is due to Liberal voters coming home due to not voting for their resigned candidate in 2015.

The Green Party mayor of Victoria Lisa Helps isn't all that popular (only reelected with all 43.1% of the vote despite not having a high profile challenger.)  So, maybe she doesn't helps.

Wasn't she the one who wanted to remove the John A. Macdonald statue?  That got quite a backlash and while many were on the right, I've heard lots of other negatives about her so that kind of makes sense as on paper I think this would be one of the top targets for Greens and still is, but could be a liability rather than asset.

Yes,

I agreed with her on the removal of the statue.  John A MacDonald was a sleazy grifter whose corruption makes Justin Trudeau, Jean Chretien and Brian Mulroney seem mild in comparison.  However, she certainly didn't handle the issue well. 

[136or142]

Surprised the Greens aren't way out ahead. On paper, should be an easy pickup. I mean, they have the Greens losing support! I guess this is due to Liberal voters coming home due to not voting for their resigned candidate in 2015.

The Green Party mayor of Victoria Lisa Helps isn't all that popular (only reelected with all 43.1% of the vote despite not having a high profile challenger.)  So, maybe she doesn't helps.

How many people know that she's affiliated with the Greens though? It's not on her Wikipedia page.

ETA: After reading this article, it is clear that the last mayor election was an NDP-Green proxy battle.  But still, how many people are going to associate the federal party with the administration of an officially non-partisan mayor?

There does seem to be a greater amount of people looking at affiliate parties to judge national parties (and maybe vice versa.)  Certainly the NDP has had this issue for a long time, whether it was unpopular governments in British Columbia or Manitoba or the Bob Rae government in Ontario, but now we seem  to be seeing it with the Doug Ford Progressive Conservatives negatively impacting the Scheer Conservatives.  

Given that the only thing people have to judge the Green Party by in local areas of strength would be local governments if the Green Party are in charge, it wouldn't surprise me that an unpopular or, at least, controversial Green party affiliated mayor is going to bleed over to provincial and federal Green Party support.  To be sure, I don't think anybody would vote for the Green Party federally with the expectation they would form government, but, as all opposition parties essentially run on the notion that 'our alternative would be perfect', anything that suggests that isn't correct almost certainly has some kind of impact.

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The NDP has withdrawn the candidacy of Pierre Nantel in Longueuil-Saint-Hubert because he has talks with the Green party about possibly running for them.  He is out of caucus.

Didn't he also flirt with the Bloc Quebecois and/or the Parti Quebecois?  Seems like a strange person.

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https://twitter.com/CBCKatie/status/1167541440840372225

It seems if you criticize Israel, Canadian Jewish groups will call you Antisemitic, and now, if you criticize Jewish groups for being obsessed with Israel, you'll also be called Antisemitic.  As a Jew, these groups do not speak for me.

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Also, Leaders debate, my take:

Scheer -> calm, but bland and boringly so. Spoke well and hit his points, but got caught a numbers of times in fights he just couldn't handle and effectively said he'd prioritize cuts over balanced budgets (not a big surprise but still). Didn't "win" or gain anything, but also didn't lose anything.

May -> loaded with info, a fountain of facts, but she came across and condescending at times and arrogant others. But also very knowledgeable and spoke clearly to points. But outright lied when caught by Singh around recent revelations about the Greens (abortion, sovereignty, propping CPC up, she said "that's a lie", but they aren't). Solid performance, but not a win. 

Singh -> cool and calm, spoke to people and about people, the most personable. But should have delved deeper into policies, I felt he was lacking on some detail. Went right after Scheer and Trudeau, even May, but nailed Scheer with a few jabs he was not expecting (around Trump in particular). Moderators were all united here, this was Singh's to claim as a win, and performed better then expected.

Trudeau -> didn't even show, so be default he was defined by how everyone else painted him, honestly the clear loser here. But, he does have one advantage, he just saw a bit of his competition and likely took notes.

Of Note, arguably in 2015 the Macleans debate was where Trudeau's performance helped turn the momentum towards him. I can see some of that going to both Singh and Scheer even.

Just to add, the main takeaway for those who didn't watch the debate are those photos of the empty podium where Trudeau was supposed to be, and the one of May pretending to shake MIA Trudeau's hand. Could help May and hurt Trudeau.

Impossible to know, of course. However, outside of the hyper partisans, voters usually don't care about these sorts of things, especially since Trudeau will be taking part in the 2 'official' debates (as well as another French language debate.)

All Brian Pallister agreed to was a single 50 minute debate in Manitoba, and he just got comfortably reelected.

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Anybody else think Justin Trudeau is insane? 

He didn't realize the Aladdin costume was racist?  Look at the incredible attention to detail.  He not only knew it was racist, he wore it because it was racist.  He wanted to be the center of attention.  I don't think he's just an extreme narcissist though, I've come to the conclusion that Justin Trudeau reality is being an actor in real life. 

I don't know if this is all that serious though for a Prime Minister.  From what I've read, Mackenzie King was also quite insane and he was Prime Minister for around 22 years.

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Anybody else think Justin Trudeau is insane?  

He didn't realize the Aladdin costume was racist?  Look at the incredible attention to detail.  He not only knew it was racist, he wore it because it was racist.  He wanted to be the center of attention.  I don't think he's just an extreme narcissist though, I've come to the conclusion that Justin Trudeau's reality is play acting through life.

Amazingly, I don't know if this is disqualifying though for a Prime Minister.  From what I've read, Mackenzie King was also quite insane and he was Prime Minister for around 22 years.

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Anybody else think Justin Trudeau is insane? 

He didn't realize the Aladdin costume was racist?  Look at the incredible attention to detail.  He not only knew it was racist, he wore it because it was racist.  He wanted to be the center of attention.  I don't think he's just an extreme narcissist though, I've come to the conclusion that Justin Trudeau reality is being an actor in real life. 

I don't know if this is all that serious though for a Prime Minister.  From what I've read, Mackenzie King was also quite insane and he was Prime Minister for around 22 years.

I believe the technical term to describe him is "goober".

Loony tunes.