Democratic Leadership Elections

[136or142]

https://twitter.com/eclecticbrotha/status/1067844773988298752

Right. I don't think you actually understand what the left is looking for. Also it's doubtful Jeffries is actually a progressive, and if he calls himself one, is just that out of political expediency - something that many centrists/non-progressives have taken to because it's in vogue. This was posted on AAD:

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https://twitter.com/michaelwhitney/status/1067830777336000512


And as I posted over there as well, this was Jeffries prior to politics:

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lol?

If Jeffries is a "progressive," then I guess we have to come up with a new word, because the center has stolen it.

Hakeem Jeffries faced no Republican opponent and received 94% of the vote.  I'm not really sure why small donors would waste their donations on such an uncompetitive race.  I don't really think Jeffries lack of small donations necessarily says anything about him or is all that fair an argument to use against him.

[136or142]

Lol.

Yeah, no, Cheri is pretty safe.

She won 55-45 in 2014, 60-40 in 2016 and 62-38 in 2018.

She ain't gonna be distracted most years, let alone in 2020.

congressmen culberson and sessions agree
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Sessions#Campaigns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Culberson#Elections

Im not saying Bustos is doomed or even in a tossup
But it is on the playing field and the GOP should go for it in 2020 considering its basically IA 2nd and 1st shifted 3 points left.

Again, no. That seat has trended towards her every election.

swung not trend
It trended against this election as 2016 was a R+1 year and 2018 was a D+8 year.

Why can't people just accept that rural seats are in danger. She probably won't lose but Im keeping at Likely D for now.

The district isn't that rural, from Wiki: Distribution   
73.3% urban
26.7% rural


The Democrats basically got as much of the urban areas of North Western Illinios into the district as they could north of Springfield: much of Peoria, Rockford and the Illinois part of the Quad Cities. 

[136or142]

Lol.

Yeah, no, Cheri is pretty safe.

She won 55-45 in 2014, 60-40 in 2016 and 62-38 in 2018.

She ain't gonna be distracted most years, let alone in 2020.

congressmen culberson and sessions agree
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Sessions#Campaigns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Culberson#Elections

Im not saying Bustos is doomed or even in a tossup
But it is on the playing field and the GOP should go for it in 2020 considering its basically IA 2nd and 1st shifted 3 points left.

Again, no. That seat has trended towards her every election.

swung not trend
It trended against this election as 2016 was a R+1 year and 2018 was a D+8 year.

Why can't people just accept that rural seats are in danger. She probably won't lose but Im keeping at Likely D for now.

The district isn't that rural, from Wiki: Distribution   
73.3% urban
26.7% rural


The Democrats basically got as much of the urban areas of North Western Illinios into the district as they could north of Springfield: much of Peoria, Rockford and the Illinois part of the Quad Cities. 

ok probably not th ebest wording but lets say medium sized WWC cities like youngstown quad cites in general are trending away. Bustos is safe if they replace some of the district with a tendril into Chicago land which at this point needs to be spread out more for D's.

On the Iowa side of the Quad Cities, Democrat Dave Loebsack has been the Representative since 2006.  In some areas the WWC in medium sized cities are trending away, but the Democrats seem to be fighting back in at least the Northern Midwest.

[136or142]

Lol.

Yeah, no, Cheri is pretty safe.

She won 55-45 in 2014, 60-40 in 2016 and 62-38 in 2018.

She ain't gonna be distracted most years, let alone in 2020.

congressmen culberson and sessions agree
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Sessions#Campaigns
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Culberson#Elections

Im not saying Bustos is doomed or even in a tossup
But it is on the playing field and the GOP should go for it in 2020 considering its basically IA 2nd and 1st shifted 3 points left.

Again, no. That seat has trended towards her every election.

swung not trend
It trended against this election as 2016 was a R+1 year and 2018 was a D+8 year.

Why can't people just accept that rural seats are in danger. She probably won't lose but Im keeping at Likely D for now.

The district isn't that rural, from Wiki: Distribution   
73.3% urban
26.7% rural


The Democrats basically got as much of the urban areas of North Western Illinios into the district as they could north of Springfield: much of Peoria, Rockford and the Illinois part of the Quad Cities. 

ok probably not th ebest wording but lets say medium sized WWC cities like youngstown quad cites in general are trending away. Bustos is safe if they replace some of the district with a tendril into Chicago land which at this point needs to be spread out more for D's.

On the Iowa side of the Quad Cities, Democrat Dave Loebsack has been the Representative since 2006.  In some areas the WWC in medium sized cities are trending away, but the Democrats seem to be fighting back in at least the Northern Midwest.

Not really. In neighboring IA-01, despite the hype Abby Finkenauer's win ended up pretty underwhelming as compared to how that district had previously voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012. And Dems also lost the Iowa governorship and got BTFO in nearby IN-SEN. That area is generally trending away. Granted, it is not trending away as strongly as, say, southeast Ohio, but it is still trending the wrong way and is more likely to continue trending the wrong way than to reverse.

Finkenauer was disappointing, but the Democrats also took the Des Moines based Iowa 3rd district.  The Democrats also did better than expected in Grand Rapids despite having a candidate who didn't raise a lot of money.

Indiana, Ohio (and Missouri) are the Southern Midwest, by my consideration.  The Democrats are doing better in some of the suburban districts in these states, but I agree the medium size WWC cities are trending away.

[136or142]

Too lazy to find the thread asking about primary challengers for the Pelosi dissenters looking to advance their own interests by challenging her:

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1068168062174724097

What should Nancy Pelosi do about Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar who attended a fundraiser for Republican Representative John Carter even though he was in a tight race with Democratic challenger Mary Jennings Hegar?

Or, should Pelosi and her supporters only be concerned about those who target Pelosi personally?