New Zealand By-elections (next event: Botany [before 8th December 2018])

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http://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/26-11-2016/nzs-feeblest-john-key-parrot-is-on-the-brink-of-a-shellacking-in-mt-roskill/

Not the most unbiased article, but it does have a poll hidden inside.

Also, welcome to the Forum! It's always nice to have someone else interested in NZ's elections.

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Excellent news! What is the People's Party? That's a good result for a group I've never heard of. Is it a one hit wonder for this by-election or are they going to stick around?

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http://www.nzherald.co.nz//nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11762554

Shearer will be resigning his Mt Albert seat for a UN post in South Sudan. Not sure if there will be a by-election or an early general election.

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http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/87729502/national-will-not-stand-candidate-in-mt-albert-byelection-to-replace-labour-mp-david-shearer

National isn't running a candidate.

Jacinda Ardern is the Labour candidate. This should be a shoo-in for her. Her opponents are Penny Bright (Indep; ran for mayor in 2016 and got 1.77%), Joe Carolan (Socialist Aotearoa), Julie Anne Genter (Green; currently a List MP too), and Vin Tomar (People's Party; this party got about 4% in the Mount Roslill by-election last year).

Someone who knows NZ better than me can correct me, but I'm pretty sure that if Ardern is elected, Maryan Street will take Ardern's place from the list. Street was in Parliament from 2005-2014.

Edit: I should've mentioned that the by-election will be on February 25, 2017.

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National isn't running a candidate.

Jacinda Ardern is the Labour candidate. This should be a shoo-in for her. Her opponents are Penny Bright (Indep; ran for mayor in 2016 and got 1.77%), Joe Carolan (Socialist Aotearoa), Julie Anne Genter (Green; currently a List MP too), and Vin Tomar (People's Party; this party got about 4% in the Mount Roslill by-election last year).

Someone who knows NZ better than me can correct me, but I'm pretty sure that if Ardern is elected, Maryan Street will take Ardern's place from the list. Street was in Parliament from 2005-2014.

Edit: I should've mentioned that the by-election will be on February 25, 2017.

Yes, it'll be Maryan - she's next on the List and she wants to get back in.

We in Labour don't expect any serious contest, obviously, although Julie Anne is making a fair go of it. We're still putting a bit of effort in so as to keep the machine well-oiled, though.

The electorate covers some very expensive areas in terms of house prices, so housing is a major theme.

I'd say housing will be a major theme in November or whenever the general election is. I have looked at places outside of Auckland (mainly on the West Coast for giggles) and houses aren't too bad there, at least compared to California prices. The houses are usually a bit smaller, but our homes are a bit ostentatious.

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https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/cat-among-the-pigeons-ck-198966

Gareth Morgan's Opportunities Party will be running a candidate in the Mount Albert by-election. Geoff Simmons will be the candidate.

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I just checked Wikipedia again; in addition to Simmons, there's a number of late entrants who will likely get a total of 5% between themselves.

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I'm guessing that we'll have results by this time tomorrow.

I'd be shocked and awed if Ardern lost. I'm more interested in seeing how TOP and the People's Party do.

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http://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/24-02-2017/the-nailbiter-in-mt-albert-or-why-the-by-election-on-saturday-is-more-important-than-you-think/

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Polls close at 7 PM NZST. That's in just under 20 minutes. http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/

Edit: With 45 minutes of counting, we're at 29% reporting. Ardern is at 77% and Genter is at 12%. Simmons is down in third at 4.25%.

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Calling it for Jacinda Ardern. She's at 75-80% with 90% or so reporting.

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Jacinda Ardern gets 10,000 votes with 100% reporting. Yes, exactly 10,000 votes out of 12,971 (that's 77.1%).

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A potentially competitive by-election? Whoa! Count me in!

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http://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/24-02-2017/the-nailbiter-in-mt-albert-or-why-the-by-election-on-saturday-is-more-important-than-you-think/

This is hilarious in hindsight.

Yeah, back in the day when Jacinda was just a lowly list MP trying to get an electorate of her own. It's been a whirlwind of a year for her. Winning a by-election, becoming leader of Labour, increasing Labour's vote share by a huge amount, (eventually) forming a government, and she's going to have a kid in a few months.

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Northcote's by-election is this Saturday (NZ time)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northcote_by-election,_2018

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Got too busy working out in the yard yesterday and missed this. Thanks for keeping up with it. It's nice to have someone from NZ sharing that.

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This whole thing is hilarious. Have you seen any good comprehensive articles on this? I missed the first few days of the Ross Revolt.

That would be really hilarious if Bridges used the Waka-Jumping bill against Ross. I don’t really like the idea of using it against electorate MPs though.