Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Duke of York]

Is Lisa Neubauer expected to win? I haven't been following that race.

she's probably the slight favorite

[Duke of York]

I think this race is lean Neubauer imo. Maybe I'm wrong?

Based on all the information we have, that would be fair.

I second this however Democrats were also helped last year by a massive blizzard which  passed north of Madison that likely dramatically suppressed turnout in rural counties in central Wisconsin

[Duke of York]

I think this is going to be another Dallet type blowout.

I hope so. The stakes are very high

[Duke of York]

I think these are the four possible Election scenarios at this rate on Tuesday. Which of these scenarios is most liley to happen in your opinion?

Here is lasts years race for example:


Scenario #1: Dems have an amazing night (Neubauer wins by almost 20%)


Scenario #2: A very good night for the dems, not as good as the first but still win by a comfortable margin.


Scenario #3: Close win for the Dems, Neubauer wins Winnebago, Brown and Outagamie by razor thin margins


Scenario #4: Hagedorn wins by a under 1%, which would mostly be a huge upset.

Im hoping for scenario one but expecting two

[Duke of York]

If Lisa Neubauer wins by less than 12 points or loses, then its a disappointment.

Thats a very wide range to label as a disappointment

[Duke of York]

Saw a tweet of a voter at Madison Ward 53 that said she was voter 837, which would put them at 68.7% of total 2018 turnout for that ward was last year with 4.5 hours left.

Is that good or bad for Neubauer?

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/amyreidreports/status/1113174609044623362

Is that good for Neubauer? Where in the state is that?

[Duke of York]

I really hope Hagedorn doesn't win. Turnout (while ok) isn't looking as good as last year's SCOTUS race.

Decreased dem enthusiasm is the name of the game.

Rain in NoWI, Neubauer is finished.

Your R hackery of WI never ceases to astound me.

Limo writes troll posts. Ignore them

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1113196504422977537

Is that enough to win?

Its a good sign I would think but i take no victory for granted anymore

[Duke of York]

Turnout in Madison has already surpassed the April 2018 SCOTUS race! Wow!

A very good sign that is.

[Duke of York]

Turnout in Madison has already surpassed the April 2018 SCOTUS race! Wow!

Don't forget that, every year, Madison takes up a larger portion of the total electorate as well.

Like someone else said, I am being "cautiously optimistic," but Wisconsin Dems are seriously lucky to have Madison. Without the growth of Madison over the past decade, our electorate would look almost similar to Iowa.

They really are. Without it Wisconsin would be a lean R state.

[Duke of York]

First results for Madison Mayor race.

Candidate   Vote Percentage   Number of Votes
Paul R. Soglin (NON)   43.1%   868
Satya Rhodes-Conway (NON)   56.5%   1,139
WRITE-IN (NON)   0.4%   9
2.8% of Precincts Reporting (4 of 144)Votes By Precinct

That would be a huge upset if she wins. I would have thought he was favored.

[Duke of York]

Her lead is going to explode once those Dane County numbers start rolling!

I hope so because right now this looks like a loss.

[Duke of York]

Ignore the concern troll, guys.

They concern troll everything.

[Duke of York]

Ignore the concern troll, guys.

in all seriousness, i think she is gonna lose.

As do I. A very ominous sign for next year.

[Duke of York]

I'm getting super nervous! Has Dane County started reporting?

I think this is going to be a loss.

[Duke of York]

Wow!

But now that’s the majority of the county. I’m not sure the rest will be enough to fest vote from elsewhere.

Still, with almost 100% of WOW counties reporting, Dane still having 33% to report is something for Lisa to feel good about.

Perhaps yeah. Still feeling on edge though.

nah, this is done. We literally have 23% out in dane vs. the entire northern half of the state.

I hope your right