German Elections & Politics

[DavidB.]

I don't like Schulz and ideologically I'm way closer to Merkel, but please kick her out. Please.

I totally understand what you mean, but it's not as if Schulz is going to be better. Reminds me of being glad Timmermans left as our Foreign Minister and then realizing Koenders is actually worse.

[DavidB.]

I have the impression that a lot of white working-class people still vote SPD, just look at NRW. The SPD need to thank G-d (though not a very SPD thing to do...) that Die Linke are still pretty toxic in the West; with a more capable party to their left, their bottom would have fallen out already. You only have to look westward to see how low a social democratic party in Western Europe can go. Over 50% of WWC vote PVV or SP here; even in their "good" 2012 result (24.8%) the PvdA's base consisted mainly of middle-class public servants who would nowadays perhaps vote for the Greens in Germany.

[DavidB.]

The federal executive committee of the AfD has voted in favour of starting procedures to expel their Thuringian state chairman Björn Höcke from the party.

Excellent news.

[DavidB.]

In a first reaction, the Thuringian state executive committee has denounced the decision. I suppose the AfD could lose their entire state party in Thuringia over this.

I'm sure the NPD will gladly take them.

[DavidB.]

How much could a Nazi breakaway party hurt the AfD electorally? Is there even much electoral space between the AfD and the NPD?

[DavidB.]

G-ddamn, how hard is it not to do that one thing that discredits you to all of German society except a few fringe lunatics? For a Jew who generally supports this type of parties, literally everything about this story is frustrating: Höcke's behavior, the broad support for that behavior within the party, and the potential electoral consequences of both a splitoff and the party staying together. The only upside, I guess, is that the wide outrage over Höcke's statements outside AfD has once again made it clear how much Germany has changed for the good when it comes to its attitude toward Jews and the Holocaust. Admirable.

[DavidB.]

As one of the few people on this board who would prefer to to see a right-of-center party in the Bundestag, I do actually think the AfD would be better off w/o Höcke and some of his pals but achieving this may be close to impossible w/o sinking the entire party.

This is the exact same dilemma that I have here. Apart from that I'm less inclined to draw a distinction between Nazi and "völkisch" but that's perhaps because I come from a country where "völkisch" isn't associated to the sentiments Höcke and others espoused, which, to me, seem pretty close to "I'm basically a Nazi but I cannot openly say it." But I'm open to hearing about the distinction between the two.

[DavidB.]

To what extent do German voters vote tactically for the "Erststimme" / engage in ticket-splitting? Do voters generally have the information necessary to know how the candidates in their constituency will approximately do and whether the race will be competitive?

[DavidB.]

Wondering about the extent of the Piraten > AfD swing.

[DavidB.]

Among the members of "Köln stellt sich quer" are the CDU, the FDP, the SPD, the Greens, the Left Party, the Pirate Party, all major labor unions, both Christian churches, Jewish organizations, Amnesty International, and so on... all in all more than 80 organizations.

#NotInMyName

[DavidB.]

It's always funny to see how far-right nationalists don't seem to back far-right nationalists in other parties. I understand why Trump wasn't backed by AfD/PVV voters (the Republican party itself is almost as toxic as Trump over here) but Le Pen isn't really much different from Wilders or the current AfD leadership.

Le Pen is really pretty different from Wilders, but I agree that AfD voters not willing to vote for Le Pen and vice versa is weird as hell.

[DavidB.]

Still second lowest turnout ever: 66%.

[DavidB.]

If CDU/CSU-FDP don't have a majority but CDU/CSU still win the election by a comfortable margin, it has to be a grand coalition again... right? Or is Jamaica really a plausible option?

[DavidB.]

Green Party says it will only be part of a coalition if the legalization of gay marriage is guaranteed: http://www.dw.com/en/german-greens-make-same-sex-marriage-guarantee-condition-of-coalition/a-39294421

Good for them. It's getting ridiculous.

[DavidB.]

The new AfD campaign posters (... are far more aggressive than the FPÖ-posters so far):
[snip]

This is not more aggressive than "Heimatliebe statt Marokkaner-Diebe" or "Mehr Mut für unser Wiener Blut" or "Wien darf nicht Istanbul werden" or "Abendland in Christenhand"... Or do you mean this year's FPÖ campaign?

[DavidB.]

I personally thought about voting for "Partei der Humanisten", a center-left party with focus on secularism, science and European federalism. Their tax plans are a little to centrist for me but their foreign policy is much more realistic then those of leftist parties. Unfortunately they are not on the ballot in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. That's why I decided to vote for Die PARTEI once more. I can't stand Die Linke's naive foreign policy and their open relations towards Moscow and by voting for SPD or Grüne I risk to be stirrup holder of Seehofer, Von der Leyen, Schäuble and all those other freaks behind Merkel.

At the risk of falling into the fallacious pitfall of "Communism/Nazism were supposed to teach Germans something" (analogous to the even more disturbing "Nazism should have taught the Jews something" line of reasoning that sometimes comes up in discussions on Israel), I have to say that I don't understand how Germans, after all of the horrendous experiences with non-democratic alternatives both on the left and on the right, can vote for a party like Die PARTEI that is intended to satirize politics but, by extension, inevitably satirizes democracy. I personally think voting for parties like these subconsciously leads to an erosion of trust in the democratic process with the general public and is more harmful to democracy than abstaining.

Edit: This is not meant as criticism, by the way... have held this view for a long time and am genuinely wondering how people like you, who are undoubtedly committed to upholding democracy, think about this.

[DavidB.]

I'm not accusing them of being anti-democratic -- obviously they are not -- nor am I comparing them to the NSDAP and the SED, G-d forbid. What I'm saying is that a satirical party like Die PARTEI may not solely channel cynicism about the political system but also cause it, and thereby inadvertently contribute to the erosion of trust in the democratic system. If 7% of first-time voters in Berlin vote for Die PARTEI, I don't know whether it should be interpreted as enthusiasm to participate in politics or as a cynical anti-system vote. It's pretty sad if many people feel that no serious party represents their ideas, and I'd much rather see them form a new serious party. Perhaps my line of reasoning is incredibly far-fetched but this is just my impression...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

... but this is a fair point

[DavidB.]

I know it's very much a long stretch but would CDU/CSU even consider having the AfD join? (I know it's a pretty strange thing since the AfD is like the anti-Merkel

No, they wouldn't.

[DavidB.]

I don't think AfD did that well at all in the deep black CDU areas in Niedersachsen. In Cloppenburg-Vechta they only got 2.3% of the Zweitstimmen.

[DavidB.]

Is the city of Berlin very liberal like most cities, or is it a rare conservative-leaning city?

The FDP gets very few votes (outside the incredibly rich bits of Berlin); like they do in every city in Germany.  So no, Berlin isn't "very Liberal".

liberal in the American sense ≠ liberal in the European sense

Which is why people shouldn't use these terms in the American sense of the word when discussing European politics.

[DavidB.]

Schulz is also beginning to focus on the topic of refugees as a campaign issue which should only further help the AfD.

Is he positioning the SPD to the right of the CDU on this issue?

[DavidB.]

Somewhat. He has said that the EU needs to lessen Italy's burden by relocating migrants and refugees to the rest of the EU. He has at the same time excluded Germany from thid scheme though, arguing it has done enough for the time being. Talk about having your cake and eating it as well...

Source: http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/martin-schulz-will-fluechtlinge-zum-wahlkampfthema-machen-a-1159280.html

Doesn't the CDU support such a relocation scheme as well? I thought this was a common position held by most mainstream parties nowadays. If all EU countries are included it is obvious that Germany, Sweden and the Southern European member states would "benefit" the most.

(Of course I oppose this because I don't think other EU countries should carry the burden of Merkel's invitation, but I'm not exactly in the majority here.)

[DavidB.]

Unweighted:
FDP 63%
CDU/CSU 58%
AFD 58%
SPD 40%
Grüne 33%
Linke 27%

Weighted:
AFD 72%
CDU/CSU 59%
FDP 54%
SPD 34%
Grünen 24%
Linke 23%

[DavidB.]

AfD 61.9%
SPD 53.6%
FDP 53.6%
DIE LINKE 52.4%
CDU/CSU 51.2%
GRÜNE 50%

[DavidB.]

Good analysis; with the caveat that people in countries that are used to having minority governments aren't "risk-takers" either: they just have a different political culture, in which having a minority government isn't (perceived) as risky.