Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[DavidB.]

The government parties couldn't agree on the proposed draft bill for the Haredim, so an early election will take place in April 2019 - probably April 9th.

Will write a longer OP when I feel like it (but the Israelis, who know more about this than I do, should feel free to do it too).

Threads like these always have a high risk of becoming "opinion of Netanyahu?" threads; please have the analysis here and the opinions here, in the Individual Politics thread that I just opened.

[DavidB.]

I believe the Gantz thing when I see it. Some well-known person ""possibly"" running and winning a lot of seats is something that happens every 6 months in Israel. The main electoral shift is Zionist Union -> Yesh Atid, otherwise it's pretty stable.

Loss from "right-religious coalition" to "center-left opposition" are former Kulanu voters moving to YA + the Orly Levy wildcard thing (which probably won't happen). But these "blocs" don't really mean anything (I used to say Israel isn't Sweden, but the importance of the blocs in Sweden isn't what it used to be either...), since Yesh Atid isn't going to form a coalition that depends on the Joint List either from the inside or from the outside. So 90% sure there will be another Netanyahu government even in the event the right-religious parties don't win a majority.

[DavidB.]

I am always surprised how Likud support always seems to hold up despite various Netanyahu scandals.

People in Israel expect their politicians to be corrupt (to a certain extent), and it is especially Likud voters who care much more about having a leader perceived as strong than about corruption scandals. There was this NYT interview in which some reporter went to southern Israeli Likud strongholds to ask voters why the hell they still voted for Bibi - something a liberal guy from the States obviously could not fathom. Perplexed, the reporter told people that Netanyahu had a private airplane and had received tons of money through questionable methods. "Who cares?", the falafel guy answered. "He is the Prime Minister. Let him have five airplanes." And that attitude is widespread among Likud voters, especially in the periphery.

[DavidB.]

I think that Labor and Meretz should consider seriously a refoundation based on a serious revision of the zionist dogma.

If they wish to become electorally marginalized, sure. By now it should be clear that left-of-center voters are all but married to Labour. If Labour are perceived as untrustworthy on the long-term security of the state, these voters will simply jump ship and vote for another, more credible contender to Likud - Kadima, Yesh Atid...

The fact of the matter is that the vast majority of Jewish Israelis want to live in a Jewish state. They disagree on the borders and size of this state, but even most (and I would perhaps say especially) supporters of a two-state solution want this, with a lot of people supporting the two-state solution because it would preserve the Jewish character of the state. "Revising" Zionism means calling into question Israel's raison d'être, which is something most Israelis have no interest in at all. So a party that does this would simply become electorally irrelevant.

[DavidB.]

First poll after the election was more or less called:

Likud 29 (-1 compared to GE15)
Benny Gantz Party 16 (new, +16)
Joint List 12 (-1)
Yesh Atid 11 (nc)
Zionist Union 11 (-13)
Jewish Home 9 (+1)
UTJ 7 (+1)
YB 7 (+1)
Meretz 5 (+1)
Kulanu 5 (-5)
Shas 5 (-2)
Orly Levy Party 4 (new, +4)

What's the dealio with Gantz? Is this really happening? If so, what's his niche? Would be kind of tragic for YA to be polling so well for years just to have all these voters move on to Gantz.

[DavidB.]

I think this type of discussion is better suited for the general discussion thread. This one is about the election. So I'll reiterate my question:

What's the dealio with Gantz? Is this really happening? If so, what's his niche?

I saw that ZU had already tried to do the "if you can't beat them, have them join you" thing by inviting him to lead the Zionist Union, but he refused, LOL.

[DavidB.]

What's Gantz' stance (if any) on cooperation with Likud? And would YA ready to give it another try?

[DavidB.]

Stupid decision. No Likud voter is suddenly going to vote for Bennett now. People who hated JH's Orthodox identity aren't voting for Bennett anyway. All this does is break up everything to the right of Likud. Bennett and Shaked should have waited for Bibi to leave, which he will one day. This is bad news.

The good thing is that the more right-wing remainder of the Jewish Home will probably still get in, which means there will finally be a real right-wing opposition party for the first time since the 2013 election. Supporting them now.

[DavidB.]

Bibi is supposed to make an important announcement at 8

[DavidB.]

Seems like it ain't much. Just complaining about the Attorney General probably indicting him before the election and how unfair that would be. He wants to confront the state witnesses against hin in court, and otherwise he wants a live tv debate against them, lol.

[DavidB.]

Waiting for BY, Zehut and, I guess, some new Marzel project or Otzma to all crash and burn because the refuse to cooperate, and to all end up under the threshold.

Speaking of that - what are the odds of the threshold still being lowered? Would be absurd given that the election has been called already, but I guess in Israel everything is possible.

[DavidB.]

Very unfortunate that Hilik Bar decided not to stand in the election again: a decent man, an outstanding MK and a great representative for Israel abroad.

[DavidB.]

Interesting that Likud, Yes Atid and  Israel Resilience Party (Gantz party) could have 60 seats togheter. Togheter with Kulanu and Gesher and maybe Hatnuah tjej could have over 70 seats. Secular and liberal centreright. Would that type off coaltion work?

Netanyahu III cabinet or The thirty-third government of Israel i.e. Likud Yisrael Beiteinu, Yesh Atid, The Jewish Home, Hatnuah and this time New right would also have around 60 seats. What about this type off coaltion? Secular rightwing.

It depends on whether Lapid is willing to work with Netanyahu after the 2013-15 government, which consisted of Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, Yesh Atid, Jewish Home and Hatnuah and which collapsed mostly over disagreements between Netanyahu and Lapid (and Livni). I would think, though, that Likud wants the New Right to be included in order not to be in a coalition with no other real right-wing parties. On the other hand Sarah Netanyahu may be sick of Bennett and Shaked so who knows?

[DavidB.]

Channel 13 poll:

Likud 30
Israel Resilience 24
Yesh Atid 9
Ta'al 8
Joint List 6
Labor 6
New Right 6
UTJ 6
Shas 5
Yisrael Beytenu 4
Bayit Yehudi 4
Kulanu 4
Meretz 4
Gesher 4

Kan poll:

Likud 31
Israel Resilience 23
Yesh Atid 9
New Right 8
Labor 8
Joint List 6
UTJ 6
Meretz 6
Ta'al 6
Yisrael Beytenu 5
Bayit Yehudi 4
Kulanu 4
Shas 4

Picture seems clear. Gantz is the guy everyone's talking about and is gaining even more, almost solely at the expense of the center-left. And Bennett's project unsurprisingly fails to take off.

If this becomes a two-horse race between Bibi and Gantz, I suppose Avoda, YA and Bennett could end up losing even more. Lieberman and Kahlon are awkwardly close to the threshold.

[DavidB.]

Jewish Home has selected Rafi Peretz, the former head Rabbi in the army, as its new leader. His first job is going to be figuring out with whom the party will run with.

So what's the deal with Smotrich?

[DavidB.]

Oh, I'm well aware of who he is - my question was indeed what he was going to do now that BY picked Peretz. Good piece of background info though! And good to learn Bibi wants a Smotrich-led BY to reach the threshold.

[DavidB.]

How many votes do Likud members get to cast? And I assume the special candidates for the Galil etc. are decided on by the Likud members who reside in these areas?

[DavidB.]

Do you get to cast, say, 10 votes for one candidate and two for another one, or do you have to select 12 candidates in total?

[DavidB.]

Polls for the Likud primary closing soon, results should come in afterwards. Over 62k people voted at 9, turnout was 54.3% at the time.

[DavidB.]

Is there a page when we can see the votes coming in?

[DavidB.]

+ Miki "stronkest race" Zohar will be in again. I don't want Likud to get too boring. Shame Oren "P.I.M.P." Hazan, Nava "love me some Eyal Golan" Boker and Yaron "love me some Elor Azaria" Mazuz didn't make it.

And (genuinely) sad that Neguise is out, he was a decent guy. Not sad about Glick, who failed to side with Elor.

Why do you dislike Ohana, Parrotguy?

[DavidB.]

Oh, good!

[DavidB.]

What's the deal with the New Likudniks?

Or are they economically populist conservatives?

Closer to the opposite, economically liberal, more moderate or left regarding national issues and the judiciary.

So they're neo-liberals? I thought they came out of the housing protests?

Wouldn't say "neo"liberal - they're just liberal (in the non-American sense of the word, that is). In Israel this actually makes sense, considering that government regulations and the power of the Israel Land Authority are a big part of the reason why housing is so damn expensive, just like the extensive protectionist regulations, kept in place to keep the unions silent and the oligarchs happy, make the cost of living so expensive.

[DavidB.]

Walla poll (compared to GE15):

Likud 34 (+4)
Hosen LeYisrael/Gantz 22 (+22)
Yesh Atid 13 (+2)
Joint List 7 (-6)
UTJ 7 (+1)
Ta'al 6 (+6)
Jewish Home 6 (-2)
New Right 6 (+6)
Meretz 5 (no change)
Labour 5 (-19)
Kulanu 5 (-5)
Shas 4 (-3)

Yisrael Beiteinu/Lieberman (2.9%), Gesher (2.8%), Otzma Yehudit (2.8%), Zehut (1.7%), Hatnua/Livni (1.6%), Yachad (1.3%), Ale Yarok (1%) all under the threshold.

This one would be interesting: the first one with YB under the threshold. BY gaining at the expense of Bennett's new project, it seems. Kind of surprised to see such high numbers for BY in combination with Otzma also being close to the threshold. May be an outlier, we'll see.

From a "bloc" perspective:

Right-religious (almost definitely supporting Bibi over Gantz): 57 (no change compared to GE17)
Could swing both ways: 5 (-5)
Center-left-Arab (almost definitely supporting Gantz over Bibi): 58 (+5)

With the caveat that Gantz is a lot more right-wing than Herzog was, meaning that it would be more difficult for the Arab parties to support him at all. What has happened is that Kulanu voters have returned to the center-left bloc, presumably mostly to Gantz.

On the other hand, the Haredi parties may be more willing to support Gantz than any Labour person. A hypothetical government consisting of all parties except for Likud, New Right, Jewish Home and the Arab parties does have a majority in this poll: 61 seats. But it is still much less likely for all these parties to be able to unite than for Bibi to snatch just one more party and have them enter his coalition. Kulanu may just join the coalition and disband to become part of Likud along the way, we've seen this trick before in Israeli politics.

[DavidB.]

I'm glad Nava Boker, Oren Hazan and Yaron Mazuz are all gone. Nurit Koren and Anat Berko are FFs but I kind of knew that both would not make it.

I met Berko. She has a cool background but is weird and unimpressive irl, and of no added value. Liked Dichter and especially Michal Rozin better.