2018 Gubernatorial Rankings

[MT Treasurer]

How exactly are CA and NY “Likely” D, Wulfric?

With CA I'm extremely cautious because of the top-two, and with NY, Republicans actually have a notable candidate in State Senate Deputy Majority Leader John A. DeFransico.

R vs. R in CA has zero chance of happening, and DeFrancisco is trailing Cuomo by 29 points in the Siena poll released two weeks ago. Also not sure why you think he’s a notable candidate, he’s only leading his opponent in the R primary by 4 (getting 21%) and 49% are still undecided.

[MT Treasurer]

Excellent analysis, guys, keep it up! This is the kind of intellectual, sensible, thorough, hard-hitting, thought-provoking analysis that makes this forum so great. You’re not on the same level as Charlie Cook yet, but getting close.

[MT Treasurer]

A few changes:

MI: Toss-up -> Likely D (Polling's not going to be that off here, and the RGA has basically given up on this race already.)
TN: Toss-up -> Likely R (Dean was pretty overhyped and is definitely blowing a race which should be a lot more competitive than it is right now, especially with Bredesen on the ballot.)
IA: Lean R -> Toss-up (I still think Reynolds wins, but this is more competitive than I expected.)

NV: Safe D -> Likely D (Safe D was probably a bridge too far, but still, there’s no way Republicans are winning this race in a Democratic or even neutral year.)

[MT Treasurer]

AK: Toss-up -> Lean R (This race isn’t over by any means, but it’s hard to deny that Dunleavy is favored to pick this up for the GOP.)
SC: Lean R -> Likely R (This was always a heavy lift, and it doesn’t appear that SC will be all that competitive.)
AZ: Toss-up -> Likely R (Garcia is blowing this race big time, and I doubt he can make up enough lost ground over the next weeks to win here.)
TN: Likely R -> Safe R (Dean isn’t making this as competitive as he should/could have, and this one’s over at this point.)
MA: Likely "R" -> Safe "R" (Looking like a Reasonable Republican™ landslide.)

SD: Lean R -> Toss-up (This race has ND-SEN 2012 potential, and I’m not all that surprised that Noem’s underperforming here.)

[MT Treasurer]

NH seems more competitive than all the others in the likely R column.

Shhh, he thinks NH is an elastic libertarian independent moderate Republican swing state at heart.