2018: How many Senate seats do Democrats pick up?

[MT Treasurer]

Anyone who thinks Donnelly, Heitkamp and McCaskill are done is clueless.

And anyone who thinks they will win easily just because Trump is president is beyond clueless. Especially McCaskill and Donnely.

And regarding MO: While I think McCaskill is terrible and extremely overrated, let's dispel with this fiction that Kander would be guaranteed to hold this seat for the Ds: Yes, he ran a good campaign last year, but the biggest reason he came so close was Roy Blunt running a terrible, Todd Akin-tier campaign and 2016 being a year of outsiders. I don't think any other Republican candidate would make the same mistakes.

[MT Treasurer]

No one has evee said that they were favored. Only that they are not in "likely R" races.

We'll just have to wait and see, I guess. I have rated ND a Tossup and MO and IN Likely R (I was thinking about moving them to Lean R, but I just don't see it). The only way I see them winning reelection is if the IN or MO GOP nominate another Akin/Mourdock. It's far from guaranteed that Trump will have approvals in the 20s or 30s (like most Democrats here suggest) or that polarization will suddenly no longer be a thing just because a Republican is in the White House. Yes, big swings can happen, but let's not forget that even in 2014 Democrats didn't lose states like NH, MI, VA and MN (And in 2010, they were able to hold CO, NV and some other competitive races). I also doubt he will be THAT unpopular in solid red states like ND and MO. That being said, I'm not going to underestimate the incompetence of the MO GOP either.

[MT Treasurer]

Why is Heitkamp so loved here?

She's not, but she supposedly has approvals in the 70's in North Dakota, and if there's any stock in that, it's hard to see her as an underdog.

I think Hoeven has approvals in the 70s in ND, not Heitkamp. A Morning Consult poll (which generally shows good numbers for most Senators, though) had her at 50-35 in April 2016.

https://morningconsult.com/senate-approval-bernie-rubio-cruz/

And yeah, I really dislike her, but once people in those small states (where retail politics still matters) start believing that their Senator is a " nice moderate ", it's hard to topple them. I could easily see Cramer blowing it, unfortunately.

[MT Treasurer]

John Tester beat long time incumbent Conrad Burns in Montana of all places in 2006 given similar circumstances.

Montana is not a red state in Senatorial or statewide elections, so Tester beating Burns of all people was fully expected by everyone (in fact, you could argue that Tester underperformed in 2006). The Senate race in 2000 was very close as well.