How would you rate TX-Sen?

[MT Treasurer]

SAFE R. Maybe Likely but if it’s likely then it’s closer to safe than lean. Drawing conclusions from NOVA or the Alabama Senate race where the republican was a literal pedophile is a flimsy argument. Dems will focus on Arizona, Nevada, and defense.

You forgot the presidential race, where Republicans underperformed badly in the suburbs as well. Cruz is hardly someone with a lot of crossover appeal, and I wouldn't be surprised if the DSCC has dirt on him.

Trump only won TX by 9 points, and Republicans jost lost a Senate race in a state he won by 28.

[MT Treasurer]

The idea that since Alabama is much redder than Texas and Jones managed to win there, O'Rourke might beat Cruz, is pretty dumb.

The trends we've seen in GA/TX/VA/CO/etc. in 2016 and this year in VA/AL/PA are already very much favoring Democrats. Trump is even more unpopular in TX than he is in AL (among the electorate that turned out yesterday, it's only a 48/48 approve/disapprove split), and TX Republicans are relying on strong support from the same areas that are currently rebelling against Trump and the GOP.