Yes, if polling is showing Republicans competitive in CT, that totally means that they have at least a 50/50 shot there, just like in 2014. Obviously the fact that this is a Clinton +15 state and most undecideds are likely leaning Democratic doesn’t matter either, duh (it matters in safe D ME, though).
+14 and Malloy +3
Statewide races are more competitive, yeah, but there’s a limit to the number of Democrats/Clinton supporters who are willing to split their ticket, even in a gubernatorial race. Ask governor Gillespie how easy it is to win in a blue state when Democrats/moderates/etc. are turning out in record numbers to punish the GOP across the board. Yes, CT isn’t VA and Republicans are less likely to focus on controversial cultural/social issues here, but I don’t understand why people think Republicans will easily get the numbers they need out of places like Fairfield County when they failed to do so in two GOP wave years.
