Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[MT Treasurer]

Iowa is looking very good so far. It's still early, though, but it looks like we're at least going to see a good improvement on the 2014 numbers.

Keep in mind that EV in IA skews Democratic and looked deceptively good for Democrats in 2016 as well, though. I don’t think we can draw too many conclusions from this.

[MT Treasurer]

34/195 ballots returned in Petroleum County, MT, but 0/315 in Garfield County, MT.

[MT Treasurer]

But Atlas, Nate Silver, and the "Experts" told me that Heller was going to win (even in a Dem tsunami!) because he beat a corrupt lady under ethics investigation by 1 point while getting less votes than Mitt Romney, he's an INCUMBENT, Rosen is a Weak Candidate™, and it doesn't matter that junky Nevada polls have underestimated Democrats in nearly every election over the past decade and that they should be taken at face value!

I was ridiculed when I said NV-GOV was more likely to flip than WI-GOV.

[MT Treasurer]

But Atlas, Nate Silver, and the "Experts" told me that Heller was going to win (even in a Dem tsunami!) because he beat a corrupt lady under ethics investigation by 1 point while getting less votes than Mitt Romney, he's an INCUMBENT, Rosen is a Weak Candidate™, and it doesn't matter that junky Nevada polls have underestimated Democrats in nearly every election over the past decade and that they should be taken at face value!

I was ridiculed when I said NV-GOV was more likely to flip than WI-GOV.

But Marist told me Heller will win re-election at the same time Evers wins by double digits.

Well, there are those junky Walker +1 and Rosen +2 polls, but they were conducted by Ma(R)quette and Pee Pee Pee (D D D), so I’ll still trust Marist, tbh.

[MT Treasurer]

These numbers really don’t tell us anything at this point, but since this is the early/absentee voting thread, I figured I might post some Montana updates here if it doesn’t irritate anyone. These are the most populous/important counties in the state:

Montana, as of 10/20/2018:

County (2016-Pres, 2017-AL, 2016-GOV)

Yellowstone County (Trump +27, Gianforte +18, Gianforte +1): 28.9% of ballots returned (20.632/71.423)

Missoula County (Clinton +16, Quist +32, Bullock +34): 21% of ballots returned (11.482/54.504)

Gallatin County (Clinton +1, Quist +14, Bullock +15): 16% of ballots returned (8.662/54.087)

Flathead County (Trump +36, Gianforte +19, Gianforte +15): 7% of ballots returned (2.424/34.280)

Cascade County (Trump +22, Gianforte +7, Bullock +10): 24.9% of ballots returned (8.110/32.525)

Lewis and Clark County (Trump +7, Quist +9, Bullock +23): 22.5% of ballots returned (6.239/27.753)

Ravalli County (Trump +38, Gianforte +24, Gianforte +14): 27.9% of ballots returned (4.322/15.492)

Silver Bow County (Clinton +14, Quist +34, Bullock +44): 21.5% of ballots returned (2.432/11.312)

Lake County (Trump +21, Gianforte +7, Bullock +2): 28.3% of ballots returned (2.580/9.104)

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Statewide: 21.8% of ballots returned (88.107/404.217)

[MT Treasurer]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1054462428078063619

Unless it fits my narrative, as is evidenced by this thread.

[MT Treasurer]

This thread was a mistake.

[MT Treasurer]

Hindsight is pessimistic about a Democratic candidate's chances? Now I’ve seen it all.

[MT Treasurer]

Montana, as of 10/23/2018:

County (2016-Pres, 2017-AL, 2016-GOV)  (vs. 10/20)

Yellowstone County (Trump +27, Gianforte +18, Gianforte +1): 39.8% of ballots returned (28.523/71.682) (+10.9%)

Missoula County (Clinton +16, Quist +32, Bullock +34): 31.8% of ballots returned (17.495/55.015) (+10.8%)

Gallatin County (Clinton +1, Quist +14, Bullock +15): 25.9% of ballots returned (14.079/54.378) (+9.9%)

Flathead County (Trump +36, Gianforte +19, Gianforte +15): 22.3% of ballots returned (7.706/34.581) (+15.3%)

Cascade County (Trump +22, Gianforte +7, Bullock +10): 30.9% of ballots returned (10.097/32.690) (+6%)

Lewis and Clark County (Trump +7, Quist +9, Bullock +23): 29.6% of ballots returned (8.300/28.041) (+7.1%)

Ravalli County (Trump +38, Gianforte +24, Gianforte +14): 42.3% of ballots returned (6.645/15.724) (+14.4%)

Silver Bow County (Clinton +14, Quist +34, Bullock +44): 38.3% of ballots returned (4.373/11.428) (+16.8%)

Lake County (Trump +21, Gianforte +7, Bullock +2): 39.4% of ballots returned (3.638/9.238) (+11.1%)

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Statewide: 33% of ballots returned (134.586/407.993) (+11.2%)

[MT Treasurer]

We all know that reading too much into early voting can be a recipe for disaster, but I agree that there’s far more uncertainty this year than in previous midterm elections, especially due to the high turnout.

[MT Treasurer]

The Bottom Line is this: AZ is a Republican State. Heck, there is a reason Democrats haven't won a Senate Seat since 1988 and haven't won a Race for Governor since 2006.

Such electoral truisms are true until... well, they aren’t. Remember PA/WI/ME-02/etc. being "fool's gold" for Republicans in 2016? Yeah. I’m not denying that McSally or Heller could win, but if they do, it will be because Republicans are having a much better than expected night, not because AZ is impossible for a Democrat to win or fool's gold or whatever.

[MT Treasurer]

If Heller ends up winning in a Democratic wave, maybe Atlas meme magic does work, after all.

[MT Treasurer]

538's latest podcast discusses predictive value of the early vote.  TL;DR: it's not worth much, and you should ignore everyone who talks about it except maybe Ralston and possibly some of the Florida people.

Too late for that.

[MT Treasurer]

Montana, as of 10/27/2018:

County (2016-Pres, 2017-AL, 2016-GOV)  (vs. 10/23)

Yellowstone County (Trump +27, Gianforte +18, Gianforte +1): 54.9% of ballots returned (39.523/71.998) (+15.1%)

Missoula County (Clinton +16, Quist +32, Bullock +34): 44% of ballots returned (24.625/55.912) (+12.2%)

Gallatin County (Clinton +1, Quist +14, Bullock +15): 40% of ballots returned (21.973/54.921) (+14.1%)

Flathead County (Trump +36, Gianforte +19, Gianforte +15): 41% of ballots returned (14.476/35.265) (+18.7%)

Cascade County (Trump +22, Gianforte +7, Bullock +10): 47.8% of ballots returned (15.714/32.878) (+16.9%)

Lewis and Clark County (Trump +7, Quist +9, Bullock +23): 49.6% of ballots returned (14.162/28.528) (+20%)

Ravalli County (Trump +38, Gianforte +24, Gianforte +14): 54.2% of ballots returned (8.729/16.099) (+11.9%)

Silver Bow County (Clinton +14, Quist +34, Bullock +44): 50.5% of ballots returned (5.859/11.595) (+12.2%)

Lake County (Trump +21, Gianforte +7, Bullock +2): 51.9% of ballots returned (4.883/9.414) (+12.5%)

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Statewide: 47.6% of ballots returned (197.126/414.265) (+14.6%)

[MT Treasurer]

This was always a Lean/Likely D race. Still the Senate seat most likely to flip.

[MT Treasurer]

*ahem* I had this race as Lean/Likely D even before xingkerui, IIRC.

[MT Treasurer]

Montana, as of 11/1/2018:

County (2016-Pres, 2017-AL, 2016-GOV)  (vs. 10/27)

Yellowstone County (Trump +27, Gianforte +18, Gianforte +1): 70.2% of ballots returned (50.881/72.522) (+15.3%)

Missoula County (Clinton +16, Quist +32, Bullock +34): 62.8% of ballots returned (35.839/57.078) (+18.8%)

Gallatin County (Clinton +1, Quist +14, Bullock +15): 58.5% of ballots returned (32.523/55.586) (+18.5%)

Flathead County (Trump +36, Gianforte +19, Gianforte +15): 61.9% of ballots returned (22.431/36.224) (+20.9%)

Cascade County (Trump +22, Gianforte +7, Bullock +10): 66.2% of ballots returned (22.016/33.258) (+18.4%)

Lewis and Clark County (Trump +7, Quist +9, Bullock +23): 69.3% of ballots returned (20.184/29.125) (+19.7%)

Ravalli County (Trump +38, Gianforte +24, Gianforte +14): 72.1% of ballots returned (11.957/16.594) (+17.9%)

Silver Bow County (Clinton +14, Quist +34, Bullock +44): 69.9% of ballots returned (8.265/11.819) (+19.4%)

Lake County (Trump +21, Gianforte +7, Bullock +2): 68.6% of ballots returned (4.883/9.414) (+16.7%)

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Statewide: 65.9% of ballots returned (278.999/423.242) (+18.3%)

[MT Treasurer]

Montana, as of 11/4/2018:

County (2016-Pres, 2017-AL, 2016-GOV)  (vs. 11/1)

Yellowstone County (Trump +27, Gianforte +18, Gianforte +1): 76% of ballots returned (55.329/72.760) (+5.8%)

Missoula County (Clinton +16, Quist +32, Bullock +34): 68.2% of ballots returned (39.243/57.507) (+5.4%)

Gallatin County (Clinton +1, Quist +14, Bullock +15): 64.7% of ballots returned (36.133/55.805) (+6.2%)

Flathead County (Trump +36, Gianforte +19, Gianforte +15): 66.5% of ballots returned (24.286/36.535) (+4.6%)

Cascade County (Trump +22, Gianforte +7, Bullock +10): 69% of ballots returned (23.084/33.435) (+2.8%)

Lewis and Clark County (Trump +7, Quist +9, Bullock +23): 74.8% of ballots returned (21.963/29.354) (+5.5%)

Ravalli County (Trump +38, Gianforte +24, Gianforte +14): 76.2% of ballots returned (12.769/16.754) (+4.1%)

Silver Bow County (Clinton +14, Quist +34, Bullock +44): 71.9 69.9% of ballots returned (8.564/11.911) (+2%)

Lake County (Trump +21, Gianforte +7, Bullock +2): 74.2% of ballots returned (7.309/9.847) (+5.6%)

Bonus: Garfield County (Trump +86, Gianforte +85, Gianforte +66): 77.7% of ballots returned (299/385)

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Statewide: 71.2% of ballots returned (303.457/426.361) (+5.3%)