2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[MT Treasurer]

MN-3 PPP: Phillips 52, Paulsen 39

https://www.minnpost.com/national/2018/09/two-major-political-handicappers-find-minnesotas-third-district-slipping-out-of-erik-paulsens-grasp/

Not surprising, Paulsen was one of the most overrated incumbents that should have been recognized as up sh*t's creek without a paddle long before it took many to register that fact. I still remember earlier in the year how a lot of people would put him on their list of Republican incumbents most likely to defy the wave.

Yeah, Paulsen, Comstock and Coffman are pretty much the most overrated Republican incumbents this year.

[MT Treasurer]

CBS House Estimate

NH-01

[MT Treasurer]

NH-01: Pappas +22 (55-33)
NH-02: Kuster +27 (54-27)

http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/cd118/
http://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/cd218/

It's ARG, but these look Titanium D as expected. MT Treasurer will love these, lol. Look at that 58 point gender gap in NH-02!

NH women support Kuster, Shaheen, et al. by North Korea-like margins, yet Atlas thinks NH-SEN 2020 is a pure Toss-up, lol. Some people never learn.

[MT Treasurer]

Looks like not-woman Chris Pappas (D) is also doing extremely well

I bolded the reason for you.

[MT Treasurer]

ND-SRA Research: Armstrong (R) +24 (55% Armstrong, 31% Schneider)

http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/GRAY_ND_September_Survey.pdf

[MT Treasurer]

If you want too see something completely hilarious:

NH-01
OnMessage for Eddie Edwards (R)
400 Likely Voters

Eddie Edwards (R) 42
Chris Pappas (D) 40

Thanks, I needed a good laugh today.

[MT Treasurer]

I have a feeling Republicans are going to regret not dragging out the Kavanaugh fight until late October because they seem to be peaking a little early.  A month is still a long time in politics.

That’s a very good point, actually. I was wondering the same.

[MT Treasurer]

The Republicans could easily have a very good night in the Senate. They could take down Nelson, Donnelly, McCaskill, Tester, and Heitkamp without losing any seats. That gives them 56 seats in the Senate. It's very plausible.

I don’t see them holding Nevada.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans really can’t afford to be complacent right now. In a massive D wave (guaranteed if Republicans stay home), Democrats could certainly win all of ND, TN, TX and MS.

[MT Treasurer]

R+15 is obviously hard to believe, but Stauber winninig definitely isn’t, even if you believe the 2016 trends were just a "one-off" (which is certainly a bold assumption).

[MT Treasurer]

IA-01 GOP poll: Finkenauer +2 (45-43)

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https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gop-poll-shows-close-race-for-rod-blum-in-iowas-1st-district

[MT Treasurer]

New Hampshire 1st/2nd Districts (Saint Anslem College):

NH-01:
Chris Pappas (D) 44
Eddie Edwards (R) 36

NH-02:
Annie Kuster (D-inc) 49
Steve Negron (R) 22

https://www.anselm.edu/new-hampshire-institute-politics/gubernatorial-and-congressional-races-take-shape-latest-poll

Looking like another exciting election night in swing state NH! dae think trump is more likely to win nh and nv than wi and pa in 2020?

[MT Treasurer]

Rod Blum is always one of the most underestimated incumbents and declared DOA every two years. He’s not going to survive a D wave, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he won in a better than expected night for Republicans.

[MT Treasurer]

ME-02:
Bruce Poliquin (R-inc) 37
Jared Golden (D) 37
Tiffany Bond (I) 6
Will Hoar (I) 3

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Pan_Atlantic_Research_Maine.pdf

Yeah, basically confirms the Siena/NYT poll.

[MT Treasurer]

I agree, the idea that low turnout automically benefits Republicans is a myth. Of course a higher turnout doesn’t necessarily indicate a good night for Republicans, but they’re more likely to have a better than expected night if turnout is closer to 2016 levels than 2014 in many places.

[MT Treasurer]

MT-MSUB (Billings): Gianforte (R) +3

44% Gianforte (R, inc.)
41% Williams (D)
3% Swanson (L)

http://www.msubillings.edu/urelations/releases/newsphotos2018/oct/2018%20Montana%20Poll%20report.pdf

This poll also shows Tester +9.

[MT Treasurer]

MT-MSU Bozeman poll somehow shows Gianforte pulling off an upset and surviving the Testerslide:

48% Gianforte (R, inc.)
40% Williams (D)
2% Swanson (L)





They also showed TT ahead by just 3.

[MT Treasurer]

Comstock was always DOA and would have lost even in a Clinton midterm.

[MT Treasurer]

Comstock was always DOA and would have lost even in a Clinton midterm.

Uh, no.

Even if we assume that a district's/state's trend/partisan lean doesn’t matter in an off-year or midterm election, she was always on borrowed time and would have been wiped off the face of earth in the next presidential year. Candidate Quality™ only gets you so far in a district like this (or NOVA/VA in general). VA-10 is a district where Clinton would have remained fairly popular even if her approvals had dropped into the low 40s nationally (plausible, but basically the floor for a Democrat). Comstock would have been the favorite in a Clinton midterm the same way Heidi Heitkamp is favored to win this year just because Trump is president.

[MT Treasurer]

I’m getting NC-SEN 2014 vibes from NV-SEN. I remember not buying the polls showing Hagan with a clear lead and predicting that the state's lean would carry Tillis despite his weak campaign.