Tester has got to be nervous right now with rural trends.
It seems that rural Democrats have mainly recovered in the upper Midwest. But once you leave those borders it gets ugly.
Not saying ND is anything like Montana but Heitkamp's position has only gotten worse.
Tester definitely has some advantages in his reelection bid that Heitkamp lacks (Libertarian candidate on the ballot, Montana's relatively high Democratic floor, a fired up #resistance base in places like Missoula and Bozeman that has no reason not to enthusiastically support him, support from veterans, Rosendale being a weaker candidate than Cramer, the NRSC not prioritizing Montana early enough and allowing Tester to define Rosendale early and outspend/outraise/out-advertise him by a lot, the MT GOP being less competent/organized than the ND GOP, etc.), but obviously you’re right that Tester isn’t going to win easily if Heitkamp’s losing by double digits. Right now I’d say Tester wins by 3, but if Republicans are having a better than expected night, a Rosendale win is very much possible.