Which race are Democrats more likely to win? (user search)
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  Which race are Democrats more likely to win? (search mode)
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WY-GOV 2022
 
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GA-GOV 2022
 
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Total Voters: 56

Author Topic: Which race are Democrats more likely to win?  (Read 969 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« on: March 16, 2019, 05:17:33 AM »

According to 538, Wyoming is the most elastic deep red state with an elasticity score of 1.08 while Georgia is the second most inelastic red state (after AL, obviously) with an elasticity score of just 0.90.

As of Sep. 6, 2018: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-house-districts-that-swing-the-most-and-least-with-the-national-mood/

With this important data point in mind, which race do you consider more winnable for Democrats?

Because I’m aware that this topic may be highly contentious, I’d appreciate it if you tried to incorporate hard-hitting arguments pertaining to scientific concepts other than elasticity/inelasticity, i.e., polarization, incumbency advantage, retail politics, candidate quality, etc. in your analysis.

Thank you. Smiley
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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*****
Posts: 15,275
United States


« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2019, 06:10:29 PM »

a Democrat would win statewide in Arkansas before they even hit 45% in WY

WY is more elastic than GA, we all know that’s all that counts, no? Same reason IA is far more likely to flip in 2020 than TX.
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