Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[MT Treasurer]

Usually, when a LA election is very close, the Democrat tends to win it (LA-SEN 1996, LA-SEN 2002, LA-GOV 2003 all spring to mind, and I know there are other examples too). Maybe tonight will be a different story (when was the last time a Republican won a close race in LA?), but I wouldn’t bet on it.

[MT Treasurer]

My benchmarks:

Jefferson Parish: Anything less than a 6-point win for JBE pretty much spells doom for him.

St. Tammany Parish: If JBE is held under 40% here, he probably loses narrowly.

Calcasieu Parish: If JBE is winning here or coming very close, it’s over.

[MT Treasurer]

Usually, when a LA election is very close, the Democrat tends to win it (LA-SEN 1996, LA-SEN 2002, LA-GOV 2003 all spring to mind, and I know there are other examples too). Maybe tonight will be a different story (when was the last time a Republican won a close race in LA?), but I wouldn’t bet on it.

No, it won’t.

[MT Treasurer]

Pretty much any Democrat is going to get clobbered in the rural areas, and is going to rely on the cities/suburbs to win. This idea that "swing voters" care about ideology, or that a large number of Republicans and "moderates" will vote for Biden with a spring in their step but flock to Trump if Warren is the nominee (while Democratic/progressive turnout isn't stronger for Warren) is ludicrous. Democrats win by being authentic and standing by their principles, not simply being "moderate."

During the runoff campaign for LA-SEN in 2002, when Mary Landrieu was on the verge of a reelection loss, her campaign decided to change course and put more distance between herself and the supposedly universally beloved President Bush. A lot of people thought this would hurt her, but she ended up outperforming expectations and went from 46% in the junge primary to 51.7% in the December runoff.

[MT Treasurer]

What an ugly map, though.