Poland General Discussion

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

RAZ, although I a little bit despise him, summarized that boogaloo pretty nice:

– Polski algorytm: najpierw się puszymy, że nie oddamy ani guzika, potem nam zabierają całe gacie, na koniec się pocieszamy, że im pokazaliśmy.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Why would they not? Orban is in the EPP and Hungary have a lot of businesses with Germany, they are not stupid and understand how real foreign politics should look like so they support Tusk - it does not cost them much to support but not supporting Tusk probably would be more harmful. Fico also had no business in supporting Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, PiS failed so much in that charade that they even were not able to propose anything to get any support for their candidate. And Waszczykowski is by far the worst Foreign Minister since I can remember, and also probably since 1989.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Lol not even Kaczynski's bros Orban and Fico backed him up? Lol, cucked.

Orban's FB profile is being invaded by bitter PiS hacks, complaining about "treason", LOL

This is even better.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

CBOS poll:

PiS: 37%
PO: 19%
Kukiz: 9%
Nowoczesna: 8%
PSL: 5%
-------------------------
SLD: 4%
Current Korwin's party: 2%
Razem: 2%

Wow 'modernmentum' didn't last very long lmao.

Definitely surprised kukiz still has a solid vote base. It seemed like a party that would be prone to immediate explosion.

Nowoczesna leaders are working hard to lose all support they got starting from this:
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/poland-opposition-leader-slammed-vacation-during-crisis
and ending on multiple gaffes and not really clever statements.


As for the Kukiz this is hard topic and I can say something about it but later.


As for the polling companies IBRIS and TNS used to be the best, I can't tell if they are still.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

http://www.electograph.com/2017/03/poland-march-2017-ibris-poll-2.html

Strange poll.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

It almost appears as Kaczyński is no longer in control, since he can't even deal with Macierewicz's antics. Years ago he'd just purge the old fossil, now he's just stating, in a rare public appearance, Macierewicz "excesses should be curbed".


On unrelated note I drove past two American military convoys today moving east in Białystok direction. I was lucky for American soldiers are known to cause traffic accidents.

1. What if he don't want to remove Macierewicz now? I mean, he is very hawkish so popular among "core" PiS voters and as for now they have still some time to the elections. Kaczyński can kick him before elections just to show centre voters "look we are nice again", and after elections give him some post as they always do.

2. Lol

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Very important things are now going on in Poland.



PSL have lost one MP and now its parliamentary club have only 15 MPs - just enough to have parliamentary club but they are close to losing right to form club which PSL was able to form since 1990.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Oh, other major s**t is going on right now, but I don't think I have enough energy for a large post. Kaatak, will you do the honors?

Nah, this is pretty boring at this point. PSL is more interesting.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Oh, other major s**t is going on right now, but I don't think I have enough energy for a large post. Kaatak, will you do the honors?

Nah, this is pretty boring at this point. PSL is more interesting.

Well, to be honest, yes. Maybe I'm too cynical, but it was pretty much a skilfull political trolling of everyone by The Jarosław™

I don't know if that skillful, he lost his temper and protests are starting to be more and more non-partisan what for PiS is bad. Still holidays are coming and everything will smooth down.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I have a lot of things to do with my master's thesis so I guess it is good moment to start some discussion about Polish politics? Maybe you all have some questions? Do not hesitate to ask.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Razem is probably moving toward total failure in local elections as I don't see that ideological purists will cooperate with other more liberal parties of the left on local level. And they don't understand that for them getting city councilors, sejmiks members is the only way to get any support bigger than 3%. Probably the only city when they alone have decent result is Wrocław.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Razem is probably moving toward total failure in local elections as I don't see that ideological purists will cooperate with other more liberal parties of the left on local level. And they don't understand that for them getting city councilors, sejmiks members is the only way to get any support bigger than 3%. Probably the only city when they alone have decent result is Wrocław.

Interestingly during elections for borough councils Razem did cooperate with Greens. But I don't see purists "compromising themselves" by working on something bigger with muh fake left.

Well, as for now they are also cooperating with IPla and Greens with collecting signatures on their abortion liberalization act so maybe somewhere it will succeed. But I still doubt that they will accept cooperation with people like Joński.

As for the PiS as I said

and everything will smooth down.

PiS is good in over-escalating the conflict and later smoothing down with making their opponents accepting the lighter version (while most often this is the version which they from the beginning they were willing to accept). Only thing opposition now can pray for is bigger conflict in PiS against Rydzyk people in govt. (Szyszko, Macierewicz) and further conflict between Ziobro and Duda (Duda used to be his subordinate but later left his while he was creating Solidarna Polska so there probably is some ambition-based conflict between them, search for their statements from 2014) but as for now this is still unlikely. 

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

CBOS is not really good source, they had great error takng into consideration previous elections. In 2015 IBRiS was the best from currently operating polling stations.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

CBOS poll:

PiS: 42%
PO: 20%
Kukiz: 8%
.Nowoczesna: 6%
-----------------------
PSL: 4%
SLD: 4%
"Wolność": 2%
Razem: 2%


Pathetic

Depressing, but lmao at the collapse of .modern.

It was pretty obvious since the beginning that only one party can be major anti-PiS and .nowoczesna lost their chance to get into that position and kill PO because of stupidity of its leader.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

There is also fresh IRBiS

PiS: 36.4%
PO: 19.6%
.Nowoczesna:    10.9%
Kukiz: 8.0%
PSL: 5.4%
-----------------------

SLD: 4.5%
"Wolność": 3.4%
Razem:    3.4%
Dunnos/others: 8.4


Compared to previous poll by them PiS gained and PO lost few pp. With such result and SLD outside the parliament PiS will got majority.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

What does Kukiz stand for nowadays?

Depends. It was always strange mix of different political groups and it pretty much depend on faction in parliamentary club. But generally it has not changes much since the elections. As for now they as far as I noticed focus on few issues:

1) President Duda plans for constitutional referendum next year
2) Immigration, terrorism etc.
3) Some administrative issues like digitization etc.

I do not follow what they are doing now that much but they have pretty much stable support so they do not really need any radical changes and attention whoring. 

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Recently IBRiS done poll about on whom people declaring different political views want to vote. And people with self-declared left-wing views are like this:

(in brackets changes compared with lat year)
PO: 22% (nc)
.N: 21% (-10%)
SLD: 20% (nc)
PiS: 11% (+4%)
Razem: 8% (-2%)
PSL: 7% (+2%)
Kukiz: 2% (-2%)


What are your opinion on that?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Kal, Razem got 5% in new IBRiS poll XD

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

https://czyrazemma5procentpoparcia.pl/

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Yeah they bang this drum every now and again, usually as a way of distracting from domestic troubles. The usual nationalist blowhard trick.

Well, to be honest they hadn't started that drama when there was any problem (economy is in very good shape, budget in better shape than expected, govt. is planning raising the minimum wage and minimum hourly wage, they are preparing next anti-VAT fraud acts and solutions etc.) as there were political summer holidays when they were most strongly used that theme. Support for opposition parties is decreasing so they are not clearly doing that to repair their opinion polls results. Generally I think main goal of that is:

a) they want to have bargaining card for some other issues like NS2
b) for internal use, waking up anti-German sentiment to try at least somehow diminish negative possible future effect of EU procedures against Poland (such scheme: damn, that controlled by Germans EU want to hurt us, innocent Poland. Hey, remember when we also was innocent and hurt by Germans? In 1939).

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Greens and Razem are running together for the city council in Wrocław, but that's it.

Lel, I wrote about that like half year ago on the other Atlas and there I forgot They also wanted as far as I know to have joint candidate for president. As far as I know they are also planning to have their committees in all voivodships for Sejmik elections. I guess they have also some chances on coalition in Warsaw city council elections but I doubt they will get enough votes to get some city councilors.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Greens and Razem are running together for the city council in Wrocław, but that's it.

Lel, I wrote about that like half year ago on the other Atlas and there I forgot

I think I remember Greens and Razem running together for borough councils sometime ago in Wrocław.

Yup, and they got some elected. Although I don't know how many of them were from Razem.

https://www.facebook.com/ZieloniWroclaw/photos/a.196860837022349.45192.141755689199531/1540371002671319/?type=3&theater

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

PiS record high in CBOS, 44%

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Ruling coalition (yes, formally Poland is governed by a coalition, not a single party) today was enlarged by to-be-in-future party Partia Republikańska based on the two splinter MPs from Republikanie association which earlier was part of Kukiz'15. This is second major split in that organisation. Now PiS and allies have 236 out of 460 MPs, still too little to counter any potential dissent of the PiS minor partners but still this is better than 234.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

what does the German Minority MP do in the Sejm?

Represents German minority? Recognized by law minorities had no electoral threshold so thanks to the good organisation they can elect their MP. Generally he votes similarly to the govt.