Polish Politics and Elections

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Places where Konfederacja had higher support are pretty weirdly spread over the map.

I think most fall into three categories:

1) constituencies already inclined towards nationalist parties - Podlasie, Malopolska, Podkarpacie, Lublin
2) constituencies containing cities with universities, which can be expected to have a higher percentage of Extremely Online Korwinista incels - Warsaw, Krakow, Lublin, Wroclaw, the Silesian constituencies
3) constituencies where they're better organised than usual - in Piotrkow Trybunalski, the lead candidate was a Korwinista from Belchatow who'd previously run for mayor in 2018 and done quite well, and also campaigned on rejecting the EU climate package, in Gdynia and Bydgoszcz Dziambor and Sypniewski actually understand what a campaign is, and in Konin they got 14% in some random powiat because Ruch Narodowy have apparently swarmed the place. I think this may be the case in Lubuskie as well, but I can't remember any details so don't take my word for it.

Basically nailed it, and as for the RN stronghold in Wielkopolska it was Środa Wielkopolska where there is active nationalist organisation.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Extremely important news, everyone!

A so-called "Towarzysztwo Patriotyczne" (basically a "Patriotic Association"), that I've never heard of before, filled a formal motion before the Supreme Court to nullify electoral result of SLD. The motion is motivated primarily by them "defending the achievements of the Red Army".

What a twist.

To be honest similar attempts are not rare, as far as I remember earlier this year some "patriots" wanted to delegalizacje SLD because <something>.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Biedron seems to have just confirmed he will be the left's candidate for President in May. The next six months are going to be absolutely unbearable.

https://twitter.com/RobertBiedron/status/1191452869955915779

Ooooor he is trying to somehow outmaneuver Czarzasty and co. as there were gossips about other left candidates (eg. Zandberg, but I do not treat that seriously). He just wanted to be first.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Someone help me do the monarchist in confederation want to set up a polish monarchy?

Well, to be honest Polish monarchists are rather unusual in comparison with some western European monarchist movements as most often they do not really set as a priority some political interst of former royal family - as Poland do not have one. They rather focus on traditionalist vision of the world, anti-democratic and reactionary values. A lot of talking about Tradition, Faith, Family, Natural Law etc. but they not set as part of their main political issues introduction of monarchy. I would say they are mostly socially and aesthetically monarchist, they like monarchy because it fits their political and social views but due to various reasons they do not focus on that issue in their political activity. 

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

How possible is it that the president wins in the first round?

Not likely, at least in my opinion. But the campaign is only beginning so it might change.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

PiS as for now do not plan to delay the elections and they say that they will decide after Easter. Although the majority of Poles in polls say that they would like to have presidential election in some more distant future than May 2020, PiS pretty much want to keep current date.


I guess it might be connected to the fact that PiS generally have the most motivated electorate and it pretty much is visible through fresh electoral poll by Kantar. In that poll Duda wins in the first turn with 65% if elections will be held "during the epidemic" and get "only" 44% if elections are going to be hold "after the epidemic'

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

And that night while Sejm and Senat were voting on so called "anti-crisis" package (in Polish this is commonly called "tarcza antykryzysowa" which is follow-up to the Polish common name for missile defense system, "tarcza antyrakietowa") PiS decided to change at 3 at night electoral code, yet again ignoring Sejm legal rules for proceeding with such changes.

They introduced at first glance positive changes - they introduced mail voting for people over 60 and those who would have quarantaine. You may think that there is nothing political in that. But at the same time they removed mail voting possibilities for people who are voting while living/staying in foreign countries and ships. And the details of processing those mail votes would be the competence of government, not Electoral Commission (they will only be able to give their supportive opinion).

Legal basis for introducing this with relief package for employers is frankly speaking weak as they introduced changes to the electoral code in shorter period than required by rules). PO day earlier during the vote on changes in the Sejm rules wanted to implement changes which will not allow for changes in Constitution or Electoral Code via electronical voting - which now Sejm wanted to use (and had a lot of problems as voting system had major problems). But Left and PSL supported PiS this time, probably wanted to get this issue, at that point pretty harmless, get done fast.

Generally opposition now is back with infighting and PiS is cruising fast to winning elections with Fidesz-style result.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Another idea from the PiS camp: all voters will be voting via mail and only via mail but the date of the elections stays the same. No polling stations open at the day of the elections. This combinations around electoral code and actually having election in early May caused tensions between vice-PM Gowin, his satellite party Porozumienie on the one side and the rest of ruling camp on the other.

Gowin threatened that he will not vote on any further changes and he opposes having elections during epidemics. On the other hand Kaczyński allegedly said that they will kick him out of the govt if he will not support changes. But as we know from the past Gowin usually is not really a type of fighter and probably will sooner or later retreat.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I am not really shocked that Poland do not succumb to the pan-European trend of ordinary political life freeze in times of coronavirus. Vice-PM Jarosław Gowin resigned from his post (and from his ministerial post) due to lack of acceptance from the PiS side for his ideas on how to solve the whole elections issue.

His party Porozumienie will stay in the govt and Jadwiga Emilewicz should replace Gowin as vice-PM. Still between Gowin and Kaczyński probably we will have very tense period.

What is more important Gowin and some of his allies abstained or voted against during today vote on introducing to the parliament session agenda voting on PiS project of changes to the act on mail voting which will introduce mail voting as only possible way of voting in next presidential elections.

Because of that and that one PiS MP had some technical issues with voting PiS lost crucial for them voting. Opposition already had claimed victory but soon PiS decided to re-vote on that issue due to mentioned before error.


Circus, as always.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

sh**t is becoming real. Results obviously are distorted by absurdly low number of people who are willing to take part in the elections. To be honest Kosiniak-Kamysz is coping with coronacrisis pretty well, what you cannot say about other politicians. His pretty down-to-earth and rather conciliatory approach is working well now, he is also a medicine doctor so he is a little bit more competent in medical sphere than other candidates - which obviously in times of epidemics is beneficial. But, at least in my opinion, more important is pretty bad campaign of Kidawa-Błońska, they (I mean PO) clearly have no idea of what to do now. Most of the politicians obviously officially "halted" their campaigns but it is obviously fiction while they are still in media and parliament. Still, Biedroń is almost non-existent right now.


Other: today there is 10th anniversary of Smoleńsk air disaster.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

On the topic of the Smolensk air disaster, I hear there's a lot of discontent at PiS for another proof at their hypocrisy after 50 party members casually overlooked their own stay at home rules to celebrate.

This picture made the rounds of my Polish friends:

who are the people in the photo, from left to right? Some of those faces look familiar.

Starting from the left:

PM Mateusz Morawiecki
vice-PM Jacek Sasin
Marshal of the Sejm Elżbieta Witek
Minister od Defence Mariusz Błaszczak (behind)
MEP Joachim "Jojo" Brudziński
Jarosław Kaczyński, MP
not quite sure


and yeah, joke is based on height of Kaczyński, comedy gold indeed

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I will elaborate it later but PiS is close to loosing control over the Sejm rn

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Here's a little thing that's been bothering me. Let's say the election is postponed without Duda's term being extended (which, I think, would require a constitutional act of some sort). I assume his terms ends in August and we'll have Sejm Marshal acting as President until the election is held on a later date?

I doubt a presidential term can be extended by a simple legislation, but I may be wrong.

At this point I doubt that anyone knows anything anymore.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Dare one hope that perhaps Poland is going to escape the worst of Orbanisation after all?

Some people obviously have some hopes regarding events from few past days.

I will just recap there:

- PiS decided that they will not postpone the election even though the epidemics will not disappear until May

- as for now PiS want to push through bill introducing fully mail vote in the May presidential election.

- the bill is currently in the Senate where opposition is freezing the any legislation proceeding as much as they can (30 days)

- even bill is still in the Senate, govt already ordered printing of the "voting packages" with ballots. One of the coronavirus crisis relief acts included weirdly placed paragraphs about taking responsibility of organising elections from Electoral Commission to the govt so now one minister is organising everything, on weak legal basis (earlier he said that he ordered printing because "the act will be passed either way")

- after Gowin leaving the cabinet and worsening of the relations between him and Kaczyński there are gossips (confirmed by serious sources) that Gowin made deal with opposition that they will oust current Marshal of the Sejm, Elżbieta Witek (PiS) and Gowin will become new Marshal. The deal also include, what is more important, rejecting the bill about "mail elections" in May. As for now what is publicly confirmed by opposition is that they talked with Gowin and they agreed that "the elections can't be organised in May and they must be organised by Electoral Comission"

- if this is true this will require more than just Gowin - some of his party members would be required to vote against too. And not all of them are keen on leaving PiS umbrella. Kaczyński is also trying to weaken Gowin camp as much as possible, there are gossips about PiS creating special lists of people from Porozumienie (Gowin party) who will be immediately kicked out from state-owned companies or some offices/departments/posts etc.

- I can't imagine continuation of this government without majority (and finding one will be hard) in the parliament, and surely after such betrayal PiS will raze Gowin to the ground ruthlessly

- there is also always the option that Gowin will vote with PiS in the end, but for him it will be the end - PiS will trust him even less and no one outside PiS camp will treat him seriously (at least in next few years, as we know voters have poor memory).

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Senate voted against mail vote only elections. Sejm probably will do the same.

Elżbieta Witek currently is waiting for answer from Constitutional Tribunal if they can move elections to the end of May (legally TK have to spend at least 15 days on it). Earlier she asked Electoral Commission if this is possible to organise elections on 10th May and they said " no" (more or less).

First Porozumienie MP, Włodzimierz Tomaszewski (former vice-president of Łódź) swore fealty to the Kaczyński. But generally there is solid team of 8-10 MPs loyal to Gowin and still unknown number of local politicians.

This is going to be beautiful catastrophe and it will be televised.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

- there is also always the option that Gowin will vote with PiS in the end, but for him it will be the end - PiS will trust him even less and no one outside PiS camp will treat him seriously (at least in next few years, as we know voters have poor memory).

Well, this just happened.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

- there is also always the option that Gowin will vote with PiS in the end, but for him it will be the end - PiS will trust him even less and no one outside PiS camp will treat him seriously (at least in next few years, as we know voters have poor memory).

Well, this just happened.

Didn't the election still got delayed?
So Gowin got his wish: delayed election (and possibly more leverage within the government)

Elections are technically are still going to be legally scheduled but they will not take place just for the Supreme Court to rule that there was no valid elecions (as Supreme Court generally rule validity of the elections) and schedule new elections (July/August probably) but probably with the same candidates, due to planned changes in electoral law. Everything  from legal point of view very farfetched. Elections will be organised by Electoral Commission. And relations between Gowin and Kaczyński are probably still awful.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Officially called for 28 June.

Clownfiesta.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Officially called for 28 June.

Clownfiesta.

I am but one person, but one thing this has absolutely ensured is that I will take great pleasure in voting for Trzaskowski in the second round.

I honestly wonder whether to vote Trzaskowski in the first round already (Biedroń being a huge dud) to give him stronger position. There's just no one in the Polish political scene I held in bigger contempt than The Pen (Duda's been called that because he's signing everything his party tells him to sign).

Back in 2015 I casted a spoiled ballot in the first round (actually wrote in Grodzka on the paper, but we don't allow write-ins to be counted), since there was no candidate I could even remotely identify with. With hindsight I would've voted Komorowski at the start.

Running Biedroń was a huge mistake. I'm just hoping his poor result doesn't drag the rest of the Left down Ogórek/Krzaklewski style. I know Zandberg and ADB didn't want to run, but either of them would have done much better. Hell, Cimoszewicz or Belka would have done much better if they'd dredged them up. There's a strong chance I'll vote for Trzaskowski or WKK, or maybe write 'The Ghost of Karol Modzelewski' on the ballot paper.

What happened to Biedroń? I thought that he was quite popular.

He in terms of electorate shares huge part of it with Trzaskowski. Certain appeal, aesthetics, values etc. close to the "big city liberals" are represented by both of those candidates, but obviously Trzaskowski is stronger so most of the Biedroń electorate will flock to Trzaskowski.
Not to mention bland electoral campaign, visible lack of interest from Biedroń side.
Even people from the conscious, self-described left are not really willing to vote on him. In my political bubble a lot of people are really not convinced to vote on Biedroń.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Any links to real results ?

There will be no results in next hours, so relax. First partial results on Monday (not Monday night but day).


There you have details from exit poll by IPSOS, in Polish
https://tvn24.pl/wybory-prezydenckie-2020/wyniki-sondazowe-pierwsza-tura

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

https://wybory.gov.pl/prezydent20200628/pl/wyniki/pl


Almost all results in. Pretty fast, I am surprised.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So, from the pathetic showing we’ve seen so far, is Biedroń’s career at national politics over?

It's really seems that at some point Biedroń and the Left simply stopped caring, and a lot of Left's voters, myself including, decided it'd be better to vote Trzaskowski in the first round already (I wouldn't have voted for Kidawa, unless there was a runoff).

Not to mention that Left three times changed person responsible for the campaign and SLD was not really interested in investing their own money and time into Biedroń.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

If you look at the broad strokes (I'm not insane enough to do proposography of the individual municipalities), the Holownia map looks like a map of areas that had lots of resettlement from now-Western Belarus and areas with high concentrations of ethnic and religious minorities. Peak 'that would be an ecumenical matter', so actually a fairly logical coalition for someone like him to end up with.

E.g. clear signs of strong support from Silesian Germans and so on.

Yes, very logical for a candidate who radiates ecumenical, non-offensive Catholicism. The resettlement thing gets funnier the more I think about it - it's been 75 years and, on one level or another, these people still seem to recognise a semi-homeboy when they see one.

Yeah, other minorities that seems to support Hołownia are Lithuanians in Puńsk (one county near border with Lithuania) and Lutherans in Wisła (near Czech border).
But you must also remember that Hołownia is from Białystok and he had really nice campaign there, also touching issues relevant for Orthodox voters.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So, from the pathetic showing we’ve seen so far, is Biedroń’s career at national politics over?

It's really seems that at some point Biedroń and the Left simply stopped caring, and a lot of Left's voters, myself including, decided it'd be better to vote Trzaskowski in the first round already (I wouldn't have voted for Kidawa, unless there was a runoff).

Not to mention that Left three times changed person responsible for the campaign and SLD was not really interested in investing their own money and time into Biedroń.

And again, big shout out to Hanna Gill-Piątek, who kept trying to do things like organise rallies in the middle of the work day or hold press conferences out east on Sunday mornings while refusing to communicate with anyone on the ground.

If we want to be honest Trela wasn't much better tho.