Polish Politics and Elections

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Boy, oh boy. Razem declared that they are ready to start talks with SLD (!!!) before Europarliamentary and parliamentary elections.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Boy, oh boy. Razem declared that they are ready to start talks with SLD (!!!) before Europarliamentary and parliamentary elections.

It also turns out that the National Executive (which in practice means Zandberg, Dziemianowicz-Bak, Konieczny and Zawisza), er, didn't tell anyone they were going to say that at the press conference. That's going to be fun.

Ahh, democratic methods of party management

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Post Options Post by kataak on 5 minutes ago
Very interesting article about that whole judicial system affair in Poland but for a little bit different perspective, I highly recommend to read it:

visegradplus.org/jaroslaw-kaczynski-the-last-revolutionary-of-the-third-polish-republic/?fbclid=IwAR3iSs2gQNiGxebVrzwl-J9C8aVzw3icGYlLBwUNwLT74Ff86scxRaWt-B8


Slaughter of PiS candidates in big cities but also in towns, biggest city ruled by PiS mayor will be probably ca. 50k population level or even smaller as they are loosing in places like Nowy Sącz, Biała Podlaskaor Konin (although many of the towns were expected to reject PiS candidates). PiS is strong due to party name in "big elections" like parliamentary or sejmik elections but due to lack of good candidates and years of ignoring of local government they just can't win many cities where they should win easily.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I am not sure if I should write there about it but cluster around official commemorations of 100th anniversary of Poland receiving independence is now so absurd, disgusting, funny and emotionally absorbing and probably I should mention it there.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

https://www.euractiv.com/section/future-eu/news/tensions-mount-ahead-of-polands-centenary-march

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Should we start new thread for the Sejm elections or you will Kal change the name of that topic?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So, the current Messiah of the liberal left Robert Biedroń almost for sure decided that he will actually stay a MEP while he stated before that he will participate in the elections but not become a MEP (resign from the seat). What is more Biedroń poitical right hand and his partner Krzysztof Śmiszek stated that they are "thinking" about participating in the Sejm elections what might sound weird.


Other thing is great debate on the left if there should be "great" centre to left-wing coalition of Razem, SLD and Wiosna. The biggest problem there maybe not obviously for everyone, but still, is Wiosna.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So, the current Messiah of the liberal left Robert Biedroń almost for sure decided that he will actually stay a MEP while he stated before that he will participate in the elections but not become a MEP (resign from the seat). What is more Biedroń poitical right hand and his partner Krzysztof Śmiszek stated that they are "thinking" about participating in the Sejm elections what might sound weird.


Other thing is great debate on the left if there should be "great" centre to left-wing coalition of Razem, SLD and Wiosna. The biggest problem there maybe not obviously for everyone, but still, is Wiosna.

I can imagine Razem entering into coalition with SLD would have a similar affect like when the Greens entered KE (gaining literally nothing from this, btw), causing a great number of members and sympathizers to bolt. After "never with SLD" is being your battle cry from day one, it's hard to see.

Surely, but still compared to 2015 there are now less "znajdzie się cela dla Leszka Millera" voices, and more and more Razem supporters are thinking about such coalition. Not mentioning that Razem was ready to do that even before EP elections.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Are there any clickable results maps for the EU election?

https://wybory.gov.pl/pe2019/en/wyniki/pl

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

PSL is siphoning some conservative PO members of parliament (among them former interior minister) and are talking with Kukiz and Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy about coalition for the Sejm elections. But there are also talks with PO about some sort of deal, although now probably more difficult. PSL still is not really keen on coalition with SLD or Wiosna but also there is growing dissent among rank and file PO members. They are not happy that SLD got so many MEPs in EP elections with little effort into campaign (according to them). Some of them even, according to Gazeta Wyborcza, do not want SLD to put on the list former PZPR members (which is hilarious taking into consideration SLD genesis).

Similarly strange situation on the left. On the one hand SLD and Wiosna are planning to go in coalition with PO (in internal referendum about form of participation in elections SLD members decided that they want coalition without stating with whom but additionally SLD leaders said that left wing coalition is possible only as SLD and other taking part in the elections from their lists, not from the coalition electoral committee - trauma from 2015) but in social media Włodzimierz Czarzasty (SLD chairman) and Biedroń are rallying for joint left list and winking to the Razem. This might be probably sort of negotiation strategy to push PO harder. Opposition is in total disarray and PiS is planing to schedule elections in the earliest possible day just to make things even more difficult for opposition.

So now we have sort of sitcom about really pathetic coalition making. I guess we will end up with PSL-Kukiz, PO-Nowoczesna-SLD and Razem as three major lists of opposition. I still have hope for joint left list but this is not going to happen.

And PiS already scheduled its program convention, planned their campaign are are pretty much more or less ready.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

United Left 2: Wool Boogaloo

As I write those words leaders of parties ranging from centre-left to left (SLD, Wiosna, Razem, minors) are talking about coalition for next Sejm elections. Why this time this is different? Because PO decided that they are not planning to participate in the elections as part of broad coalition. Therefore SLD decided that  it and they are doing left-wing coalition. As I mentioned rank and file PO members were not really happy with SLD getting nice result on their backs in PE elections and generally idea of broad coalition pretty much failed so PO will start in elections as Koalicja Obywatelska (Civic Coalition) but this will not be a coalition - rather PO and some satelite minors, some local politicians, artists etc. running from the PO lists.

PSL will start as PSL - Koalicja Polska what probably will end up as PSL without any coalition member.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So without any surprise president decided that first available date for the elections will be actual date of the elections - 13 October. Electoral committees will have less than month to collect required signatures which in practice means that we will have 4-5 electoral lists participating in the elections in all electoral districts.


Oh yeah, and from another news: Kukiz'15 is practically dead, his parliamentary club is smaller than PSL club and Kukiz himself with his most faithful MPs will take part in the election as candidates from PSL lists (not as a coalition partner). Pathetic end. Although for PSL this might be lifeboat as Kukiz will give them somehow recognizable candidates for whom maybe most of Kukiz electorate will not vote - but still they will be better for cities than PSL candidates. Similarly PSL have deal with regionalist Ślonzoki Razem which will get best places on electoral lists in Silesian electoral districts.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Basically PiS just said that they will raise minimum salary to the level of 4000 PLN starting from 2024 what taking into consideration current wage growth level in Poland minimum salary in Poland would be equal to the 55-60% of average salary. Absolute OECD record if the salaries growth would keep the pace. According to Polish statistic bureau in something like half of Polish voivodships average salary was equal to ~4000PLN (and remember that average salary is sh**t measure, median is much better). In 2019 minimum salary was equal to 2250 PLN.

Just to compare: Left (SLD, Wiosna, Razem) also in their platform have increase to the level of 60% but in 2030, in 2020 2700 and increase of salaries in state sector (which were frozen since PO govt times).

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

We have less than month until the elections: are you maybe interested in something in particular?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

How likely is Lewica to actually get past the threshold. After all last time they fell short.

In my opinion pretty high. There is now no Nowoczesna or Razem to siphon their potential younger electorate (younger I mean people not being 50 or more years old) as Nowoczesna is pretty dead (although some of its members might get into parliament from PO lists) and Razem is now collaborating with SLD. I think 10% is safe, although polls are more generous. Still, I think that in the end some of the more liberal voters might end up voting PO "to stop PiS".

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

How likely is Lewica to actually get past the threshold. After all last time they fell short.

In my opinion pretty high. There is now no Nowoczesna or Razem to siphon their potential younger electorate (younger I mean people not being 50 or more years old) as Nowoczesna is pretty dead (although some of its members might get into parliament from PO lists) and Razem is now collaborating with SLD. I think 10% is safe, although polls are more generous. Still, I think that in the end some of the more liberal voters might end up voting PO "to stop PiS".

Wait I thought Poland had a "reversed" age gap? (With young people voting right and old people left)

Generally yes, but there are obviously some young people who are actually voting centre-left or left-wing parties.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Does 5% threshold for single parties and 8% threshold for coalitions still apply?
And are Polish Coalition, Lewica and Konfederacja considered single parties or lists?

They are single party lists: Lewica is SLD because they failed to change official SLD acronym to make it legally possible for a party committee to be called "Lewica". It was blocked in court by one minor party which is former party of Leszek Miller and some SLD barons. So this is KW Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej which for the sake of campaign and not pissing other parties off is using "Lewica" on its electoral campaign materials.

Konfederacja is single party and PSL is also running as a party. So no monies for minors, only big guys will get financed from the state budget.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

And current (polls) map of constituencies according to Maciej Palade (Polish Nate Silver).



bright colour  0-10% lead
dark colour    +10% lead

Is it common to show PiS in red? Aren't they usually shown in blue? Or is there an Atlas Forum vs US media kind of thing here?

Palade is only known by me person who uses such color divide, the most common is that one from Kal picture.



Oh, and today we had first debate in state TV. Very short, not really informative. Questions were about: 500+ social program, same-sex marriages, foreign policy (where host stated in question that USA-Poland relations are the best in history, a little bit suggestive), health care system, transparency of politics, agriculture.

The most ridiculous was one about agriculture as debate host asked that "candidates should be precise in their answers" and asked "what is the amount of UE farmer subsidies in Poland per farmer" and how big they should be. Only people knowing that were PiS representative, Jacek Sasin (vice-PM, by the way his performance is considered in social media as the worst from all participants) and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, leader of the PSL (and his performance is considered to be the best). The answer of PiS candidate looked like he was very prepared to this question, he quoted amounts of farmer subsidies from various EU countries. This caused some suspicions, even from the side of other candidates. Still. debate was boring - it was rather the presentation of narratives, not a debate. 

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I haven't voted in Senate races since they introduced single-member seats. And now in my district (Warsaw-44) KO runs Ujazdowski, which makes me even less inclined to vote here.

I bet you are less inclined to vote because you can't vote on Jaruzelska...

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I haven't voted in Senate races since they introduced single-member seats. And now in my district (Warsaw-44) KO runs Ujazdowski, which makes me even less inclined to vote here.

I'm going to cast a protest vote for Kasprzak, even though he is solely the candidate of the activists and the Extremely Online and thus definitely isn't going to win, in the vain hope that a nice big number of votes for the 'fyck off Grzesiek, and take your wannabe Tories with you' option will get the opposition to wise up next time. It just feels a bit more constructive.

This makes sense. I guess I'll do the same.

Also: hey, we're living in the same district!

I currently live in the UK, but votes from abroad go into 44.

You guys at least have chance to vote on decent candidate in Sejm elections. In my electoral district for the Sejm generally every leader of the list is some sort of a mistake (Zimoch for PO, Gliński for PiS, Trela for SLD), not even mentioning the Senate where there are two candidates of opposition and thanks to that PiS candidate might win.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I haven't voted in Senate races since they introduced single-member seats. And now in my district (Warsaw-44) KO runs Ujazdowski, which makes me even less inclined to vote here.

I'm going to cast a protest vote for Kasprzak, even though he is solely the candidate of the activists and the Extremely Online and thus definitely isn't going to win, in the vain hope that a nice big number of votes for the 'fyck off Grzesiek, and take your wannabe Tories with you' option will get the opposition to wise up next time. It just feels a bit more constructive.

This makes sense. I guess I'll do the same.

Also: hey, we're living in the same district!

I currently live in the UK, but votes from abroad go into 44.

You guys at least have chance to vote on decent candidate in Sejm elections. In my electoral district for the Sejm generally every leader of the list is some sort of a mistake (Zimoch for PO, Gliński for PiS, Trela for SLD), not even mentioning the Senate where there are two candidates of opposition and thanks to that PiS candidate might win.

Trela is a surprise, he seemed so comfortable with that ridiculous 'MUREM ZA HANKĄ' coalition that I assumed he'd switch to PO.

And of course the person after him, who might actually also get a seat if the polls are right, is Hanna Gill-Piątek, which... lol.

Yeah. I am not voting on either of them. Although my parents and grandfather, and possibly handful of aunts etc. are voting for Trela so I guess he will not miss my vote.


Also:

apparently there is one candidate who is member of still legal Communist Party of Poland about which from time to time politicians are butthurting and trying to delegalize it.



This year they had their 5th Congress which was truly glamorous:

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Why are the Greens running with the center-right instead of the center-left?

Because they were able to negotiate 2-3 pretty sure MP spots on the electoral lists while on the centre-left list they might get 0-1.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Turnout for 17:00 - 45,94%, in 2015 it was 38,97%. The best result in Mazowieckie voivodship, second best in Małopolskie, third best in Pomorskie. So pretty much the same as in 2015 as for the geographical distribution.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Turnout at 17:00 was 46%, a whopping 7-point bump from 2015. Final turnout could even top 60%. Apparently among the highest turnouts are in very liberal Warsaw (55%) and Poznan. It's certainly perilous to get too worked up about turnout reports, all things considered, but I have to believe that PiS headquarters are not really thrilled right now.

For what it's worth, Warsaw was at 51% at 17:00 four years ago, so the rest of Poland has seen an even bigger bump than Warsaw.

Yeah, as for the percentage change the biggest increases were on the west of the country. Zachodniopomorskie from 35.04% in 2015 went up to 44% in 2019, Lubuskie from 34% yp to 42%.