Mississippi 2015 Megathread

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Correct. That was also the case in 2010.

2014 map - Palazzo - Red, Taylor - Blue



2010 map of Taylor vs Palazzo (Jasper was within MS-04 boundaries in '10) - same colors

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Clarion Ledger on House races:

http://www.clarionledger.com/story/opinion/columnists/2015/06/06/handicapping-red-blue-battle-state-house/28605627/

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Speaker Gunn just said that the confederate emblem on the MS flag should be removed. He has no opposition, but wonder if any other GOPers will come out and say something similar.

[gespb19]

Speaker Gunn just said that the confederate emblem on the MS flag should be removed. He has no opposition, but wonder if any other GOPers will come out and say something similar.

Haley Barbour too. Like OMG.

Think it was nephew, Henry. Not Haley.

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Gunn saying this means that candidates will have to take a stance on this issue. And the Neshoba County Fair is right around the corner. Buckle up.

[gespb19]

Most will probably say that voters decided that when about 64% (including substantial percentge of Blacks) voted for this flag on referendum, and they can't override people's opinion)))

Bryant has already said this (before Gunn's comments), of course many people who voted in that election 14 years ago are probably dead now.

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I fully expect that to be the case. Just think it's a poor excuse.

BTW, hearing rumblings that Rep. Barker will call for a new flag tomorrow. Unlike Gunn, he does have competition in the GOP primary and in the general.

[gespb19]

Result would be the same, just a closer margin this time around.

Also, the Clarion Ledger is now polling lawmakers on whether or not the state flag should be kept as is.

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http://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2015/06/23/poll-lawmakers-change-mississippi-flag/29161437/

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Current results of CL spreadsheet

House: 11 have responded

8 Yes (4 GOP, 4 Dem)
1 No (1 GOP)
1 Undecided (1 GOP)
1 refused to answer (1 GOP)

Senate: 11 have responded

8 Yes (7 Dem, 1 GOP)
1 No (1 GOP)
2 Undecided (1 GOP, 1 Dem)

[gespb19]

Result would be the same, just a closer margin this time around.

I disagree. So much has changed since the last time we voted. The Confederate flag was "normal" then. It isn't now. Especially with a lot of Republican pols endorsing a change, I think Mississippi voters will remove it if we get the chance.

Did you see Gunn's facebook page last night? Around 2k comments, most of which were attacking him for being anti-flag. Still think a lot of people are very attached to the flag, and you know that those people would turn out in droves if it was put up for another vote.

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Republicans who are yes on flag change, per Clarion-Ledger spreadsheet:

House: Mayo, Barker, Snowden, Gunn, DeLano
Senate: Tollison, Parker

Most haven't responded.

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Not state officials, but Wicker and Cochran have released statements saying that they support a new flag.

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I think Hood is just pandering to the rednecks. He has said multiple times that he supports SSM. Him coming out and saying that "gay marriages can't immediately take place in MS" is just him trying to appease the evangelicals.

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Thanks a lot! It's only slightly over 5 weeks before primary, and, most likely, nothing really electorally interesting before that, so - let's see how it's all will get played...

Well, the Neshoba County Fair is in late July, and is a huge event here in Mississippi. Pretty much all of the statewide candidates are speaking this year.

http://www.neshobacountyfair.org/politics.html

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A little news here, internal polling shows Will Longwitz up big against challenger Bill Billingsley in senate district 25 (North Jackson/South Madison, one of the "old money" areas of Mississippi). This poll could be BS, but this race was considered to be one of the high-profile primaries in August.

http://www.kingfish1935.blogspot.com/2015/06/longwitz-poll-shows-dominating-lead.html

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http://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/2015/07/04/challengers-face-republican-incumbents-desoto-county/29720599/

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[gespb19]

Well, i always thought that even "establishment Republicans" in Mississippi are conservative enough (frequently - more then enough).... Second wave of McDanielism?

Combination of two things: 1) Tea Party is trying to make a power grab across the state, they've also fielded candidates in Metro Jackson and on the Coast. 2) DeSoto County is generally receptive to Tea Party Republicans. McDaniel won 70% of the vote there in the primary runoff last year.

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hopefully they all win the primary and lose the general and the democrats take the legislature.

Most have no Democrat opposition.

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Here are my (way too early) pre-primary ratings for both the House and the Senate. I will try and do a new one after the primary and then one before the general in November. Hopefully, I did not make any huge mistakes in the spreadsheet. I did change the ratings of a few of the seats that I made predictions on a few weeks ago.

Note: incumbents being challenged in primary are italicized. Also, primaries that have multiple candidates and are without an incumbent are marked 'TBD' (to be determined).

House: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GQqfDaAOeviyYURK4LpFpGCr0WxyiUWFjXMxrZppfSQ/edit?usp=sharing

Senate: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bzQrna6lzMbBQDkTjnQSWBRxscVeuj32KA2bOHh83Zc/edit?usp=sharing

[gespb19]

Thanks for pointing that out.

Also, yes I wouldn't expect either party making huge gains this year.

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Who do you guys think will be the Democratic nominee for governor this year?

Vicki Slater. She'll get blown out in the general though.

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When Mississippi will start becoming a toss up?

Considering how the old are heavily republican (Romney: 78-22) and that Obama carried heavily the youth vote, I'm sure it will be a battleground in the future.

In federal elections, maybe by 2028 or 2032. I expect the Democrats to be competitive in the 2019 gubernatorial race, especially if Brandon Presley runs.

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Here are the early campaign commercials

Lynn Fitch - GOP incumbent - State Treasurer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHwhMmIZLh8

David McRae - GOP challenger - State Treasurer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SciXCJoV-WE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDAEhltbZSs

Stacey Pickering - GOP incumbent - State Auditor

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_u0hU313Woo

Mary Hawkins-Butler - GOP challenger - State Auditor

https://vimeo.com/132242816

Mike Chaney - GOP incumbent - Insurance Commissioner

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SLVFNfNi30

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Reeves may be in the US Senate by then (I think Cochran retires sometime in the next 1-2 years, then Reeves wins the special election). Unfortunately for Gunn, I think his flag comments will kill him in a statewide race. Fitch would be a good choice for the establishment GOPers in MS.

Presley would be a great nominee for the Dems IMO. He could do some damage in the northern part of the state, problem is he has little name recognition in the southern part of the state.